First Citizens BancShares Inc. (FCNCA) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$2,352.64 -1.25% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2,352.99

First Citizens BancShares Inc. (FCNCA) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 3% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $26.91B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FCNCA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, First Citizens BancShares Inc. (NASDAQ: FCNCA) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $2,352.64 (-1.25% 1D, market cap $26.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FCNCA ranks #90 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FCNCA compare to CFG and BBDO in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FCNCA carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.6%. By comparison, CFG (Citizens Financial Group Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 15.1x, ROIC 2.1%, cap $27.57B) and BBDO (Banco Bradesco Sa (each representing one Common Share)) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $27.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RF leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while BBD leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FCNCA?
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Per FCNCA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000798941), First Citizens BancShares Inc. generated $9.54B in revenue (-2.2% YoY), $2.21B in net income, and $2.21B in free cash flow against $229.70B in total assets and $93.36B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2,353.11 (+0.02%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 23.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
025507510071
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B-
Cash (11)Whales (18)SEC (13)Macro (15)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.9% Base Target
$2939 Bull$2490 Base$1929 Bear
📬 FREE FCNCA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FCNCA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FCNCA SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+18/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 88% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 70.2 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 27.3% operating margin leave 9 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
63
Grade C+$2,075.12+2.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
66
Grade B-$2,120.39+11.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
68
Grade B-$2,355.51-0.1% Next Q
Current
71
Grade B-$2,352.64+6.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FCNCA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, FCNCA faces multiple-compression risk if 12.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($2,158.15) or 200D SMA ($2,065.01) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($2,490.27) toward Bear Floor ($1,929.16).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FCNCA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FCNCA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your FCNCA Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $2,352.64: 4.3 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $1,929.16
$8,200
$-1,800 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $2,490.27
$10,585
+$585 (+5.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $2,938.52
$12,490
+$2,490 (+24.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$2,59074%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$2,76269%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$2,21058%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FCNCA Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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FCNCA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +20.37%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $2,329.9H $2,382.5L $2,329.9C $2,352.6VOL 85.0K
RES: $2,448.7SUP: $2,007.1SMA50: $2,158.2SMA200: $2,065.0
$2,467.8$2,310.9$2,154.1$1,997.2$1,840.3RES $2,448.7SUP $2,007.1$2,352.62026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FCNCA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FCNCA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FCNCA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FCNCA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FCNCA)

Financials Rank #90 of 1096 ⚔️ CFG vs FCNCA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FCNCA vs. CFG, BBDO, RF, BBD)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Citizens BancShares Inc. (FCNCA) ranks #90 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #103 by equity capitalization ($26.91B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RF leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while BBD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. FCNCA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FCNCA ACTIVE
First Citizens BancShares Inc.
B- 71/100 12.2x — 2.6% -1.25% $26.91B Benchmark Subject
CFG
Citizens Financial Group Inc.
C+ 66/100 15.1x — 2.1% -2.96% $27.57B /cfg-vs-fcnca →
BBDO
Banco Bradesco Sa (each representing one Common Share)
D 49/100 — — — -2.81% $27.88B /bbdo-vs-fcnca →
RF
Regions Financial Corporation
C 64/100 11.4x — 0.1% -1.07% $24.60B /rf-vs-fcnca →
BBD
Banco Bradesco Sa
D+ 52/100 32.8x — 9.9% -3.04% $29.45B /bbd-vs-fcnca →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000798941

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Citizens BancShares Inc. (FCNCA) reported GAAP revenue of $9.54B (-2.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $9.76B , and -49.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.21B, operating cash flow of $2.92B, and free cash flow of $2.21B (-13.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, FCNCA closed FY2025 with $229.70B in total assets against $93.36B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $9.54B $2.21B $2.92B $2.21B $229.70B $93.36B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $9.76B $2.78B $2.99B $2.56B $223.72B $90.67B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $18.79B $11.47B $2.66B $1.81B $22.54B $5.28B

3. FCNCA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FCNCA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, First Citizens BancShares Inc. (NASDAQ: FCNCA) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $2,352.64 (-1.25% 1D, market cap $26.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FCNCA ranks #90 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FCNCA compare to CFG and BBDO in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FCNCA carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.6%. By comparison, CFG (Citizens Financial Group Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 15.1x, ROIC 2.1%, cap $27.57B) and BBDO (Banco Bradesco Sa (each representing one Common Share)) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $27.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RF leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while BBD leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FCNCA?

Per FCNCA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000798941), First Citizens BancShares Inc. generated $9.54B in revenue (-2.2% YoY), $2.21B in net income, and $2.21B in free cash flow against $229.70B in total assets and $93.36B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FCNCA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FCNCA last traded at $2,352.64 (-1.25% on volume of 69,954 shares), positioning the stock +9.01% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2,158.15) and +13.93% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2,065.01). Across its 52-week range of $1,759.27 to $2,429.96, FCNCA sits at the 88.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 70.2 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.0% ($2,235.01 to $2,470.27).

FCNCA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is FCNCA's 12-month stock price target?

First Citizens BancShares Inc. (FCNCA) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $2490.27 (+5.9% from $2352.64), with a bull-case target of $2938.52 and a bear-case floor of $1929.16.

Is FCNCA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates FCNCA B- (Buy — BUY) with an RQD Confidence score of 71/100.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 71/100 (B-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

FCNCA — First Citizens BancShares Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:12:45Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, FCNCA carries an RQD Score of 71 and a letter grade of B-, labeled "Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 11 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 2.6% and an FCF yield of 8.22%. A high FCF yield alongside a low ROIC suggests cash generation is strong relative to market value, while the modest return on invested capital indicates limited efficiency in deploying that capital. For a prospective investor, the cash-yield appeal must be weighed against the lower capital-return profile.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this is the strongest pillar, described as institutional accumulation and options positioning. The score points to meaningful institutional interest; an investor should note that the underlying 13F holder detail is not itemized in the source data.
  • Insider Conviction: 14 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The score is positive but not top-tier; the specific transactions are not itemized in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 15 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects a beta of 1.09 and sector sensitivity. A beta slightly above 1.0 implies the stock has tended to move modestly more than the broader market, so drawdowns and rallies may be amplified in risk-off or risk-on regimes.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 13 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects an Altman Z of 2.5, a Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. These are moderate readings: the Z-score and F-score point to a sound but not exceptional profile.

Upside drivers per these inputs include institutional accumulation and cash yield. Valuation tradeoffs include a P/E (TTM) of 12.2 against an EV/EBITDA of 26.2, which should be read with the source's caveat that enterprise-value metrics for banks are not directly comparable to operating-company multiples. The score is an analytical summary, not a recommendation.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
2382.5$26.91B12.211.326.2195.340.6%1.09$1759.27 - $2429.962.6%

Business

First Citizens BancShares Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and Major Banks industry, per the profile section. The source data does not describe its specific products, customer segments, or revenue-generating activities beyond sector classification. Its market capitalization is $26.9B per the profile and market data.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$9541.0M$2603.1M$2206.0MN/A$2213.0MN/A$93357.0M
FY 2024$9758.0M$3276.9M$2777.0MN/A$2559.0MN/A$90671.4M
FY 2023$18787.0M$13529.9M$11466.0MN/A$1814.6MN/A$5275.4M

Per the SEC financials, net income declined from $11466.0M in FY 2023 to $2777.0M in FY 2024 and $2206.0M in FY 2025, and revenue moved from $18787.0M to $9758.0M to $9541.0M over the same periods. Per the market data, operating margin is 28.2%, net margin is 23.1%, and gross margin is 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 2.6%, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Reported debt rose from $5275.4M in FY 2023 to $93357.0M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials; the source does not explain the change.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section, six headlines are dated within roughly the prior 15 hours of the data timestamp. Two are tagged CATALYST (green): a Yahoo Finance report on a stock climb after a Q3 earnings beat, and a Yahoo Finance report on the stock "soaring" that day. The remaining four are tagged MARKET WIRE (yellow): a Benzinga long-horizon return piece, a Seeking Alpha item on the 2026 Q3 earnings call presentation dated 2026-10-23, a Yahoo Finance earnings preview, and a Yahoo Finance Q2 "buy, sell, or hold" piece. Per the news section, the Q3 earnings beat is the primary catalyst; the remaining items are general coverage without specific figures in the source data. Risk watch items are not itemized in the source data. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals or supply-chain links are present.

Open Questions

  • What is the composition of the 13F institutional holder base behind the Whale 13F Flow score of 18/20?
  • What drove the decline in reported net income and revenue from FY 2023 to FY 2025, and what explains the rise in reported debt?
  • Why is EPS reported as N/A across all periods despite a reported EPS (TTM) of 195.34?
  • What specific transactions make up the SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow behind the Insider Conviction score?
  • What is the source of the 0% gross margin figure, given the reported operating and net margins?

FCNCA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for First Citizens BancShares Inc. (FCNCA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FCNCA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FCNCA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2,352.64?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FCNCA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FCNCA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2,811.35 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is FCNCA (B- • RQD 71/100) a Buy at $2382.50?

Welcome to the FCNCA (First Citizens BancShares Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 71/100 (Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation) in Major Banks. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1,953.65 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $2,382.50

Pump the brakes on FCNCA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on FCNCA, but look at what you are paying: 12.2x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless First Citizens BancShares Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3,001.95 (+26.0%)
Spot @ $2,382.50

FCNCA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on FCNCA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Banks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $2382.50 (52-wk range $1759.27 - $2429.96), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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