How profitable is Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), FATE converted $6.6M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Health Care / FATE / financials

LCTX (20) CABA (33) LXEO (33) OCGN (25) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$2.01 -3.36% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.99

Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $249.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FATE Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FATE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Fate Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: FATE) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $2.01 (-3.36% 1D, market cap $249.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, FATE ranks #597 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FATE compare to LCTX and CABA in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), FATE carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, LCTX (Lineage Cell Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $252.9M) and CABA (Cabaletta Bio Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $256.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FATE leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while FATE leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FATE?

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Per FATE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001434316), Fate Therapeutics Inc. generated $6.6M in revenue (-51.2% YoY), -$136.3M in net income, and -$112.0M in free cash flow against $318.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.99 (-0.79%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FATE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FATE SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (31% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 46% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$2.00+3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$2.06+0.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$2.07-2.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$2.01-8.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (27) → D- (35)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FATE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FATE currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.28) and Max Pain ($2.11) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.39.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FATE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FATE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How FATE Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $63.5M

FY24

Rev $13.6M

FY25

Rev $6.6M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$6.6M	52%	-80%	-$136.3M	-$112.0M	-45%
FY 2024	$13.6M	52%	-80%	-$186.3M	-$123.6M	-45%
FY 2023	$63.5M	52%	-80%	-$160.9M	-$132.3M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FATE)

✓Walkthrough of FATE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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FATE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.67%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $2.17H $2.17L $2.01C $2.01VOL 1.06M

RES: $2.47SUP: $1.61SMA50: $2.28SMA200: $1.97

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FATE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FATE Butterfly Map → + Track FATE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -51.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FATE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FATE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FATE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FATE)

Health Care Rank #597 of 1016 ⚔️ LCTX vs FATE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (FATE vs. LCTX, CABA, LXEO, OCGN)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) ranks #597 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #542 by equity capitalization ($249.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FATE leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while FATE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. FATE currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FATE ACTIVE Fate Therapeutics Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-35.0%	-3.36%	$249.2M	Benchmark Subject
LCTX Lineage Cell Therapeutics Inc.	E	20/100	—	—	-35.0%	+1.00%	$252.9M	/lctx-vs-fate →
CABA Cabaletta Bio Inc.	E	33/100	—	—	-35.0%	-5.30%	$256.0M	/caba-vs-fate →
LXEO Lexeo Therapeutics Inc.	E	33/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.55%	$257.6M	/lxeo-vs-fate →
OCGN Ocugen Inc.	E	25/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.13%	$238.3M	/ocgn-vs-fate →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001434316

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) reported GAAP revenue of $6.6M (-51.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $13.6M , and -89.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$136.3M, operating cash flow of -$106.1M, and free cash flow of -$112.0M (+9.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, FATE closed FY2025 with $318.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$6.6M	-$136.3M	-$106.1M	-$112.0M	$318.9M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$13.6M	-$186.3M	-$122.9M	-$123.6M	$440.7M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$63.5M	-$160.9M	-$132.3M	-$132.3M	—	—

3. FATE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FATE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does FATE compare to LCTX and CABA in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FATE?

Where is FATE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FATE last traded at $2.01 (-3.36% on volume of 1,266,927 shares), positioning the stock -11.84% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.28) and +2.03% above its 200-day simple moving average ($1.97). Across its 52-week range of $0.95 to $3.23, FATE sits at the 46.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.76 to $2.26).

Direct Sub-Reports: FATE RQD Cockpit FATE 12M Forecast FATE Earnings & Move FATE Dividends & DRIP FATE Insiders & 13F FATE Whale Options FATE Profit Sankey FATE News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 35/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

FATE — Fate Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:39:47Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

FATE scores 36 out of 100 with a letter grade of D-, labeled "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 (ROIC -35%; FCF yield 0%), Whale 13F Flow at 9/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 3/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 11/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 7/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 3/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

The weakest pillar is Insider Conviction, and the Cash Engine pillar is also low, which together indicate that the company's operating economics and insider-level signals do not currently offer strong support for the stock. The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar is middling rather than distressed: an Altman Z of 2.5 and a Piotroski F of 3/9 sit in a weak-to-mixed zone. Whale flow at 9/20 shows some institutional interest but not conviction at scale. Macro fit at 11/20 reflects a beta of 1.0, meaning the stock is rated as moving in line with the broader market rather than amplifying it.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Fate Therapeutics Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. Per the FY 2025 financials, reported revenue was $6.6M against an operating loss of -$147.7M, and the recent news wire notes the appointment of a senior vice president for commercialization of CAR T-cell therapies. Beyond these references, —

Revenue declined from $63.5M in FY 2023 to $13.6M in FY 2024 and $6.6M in FY 2025, while operating losses persisted across all three periods. Market data shows an operating margin of -60%, a net margin of -60%, and a gross margin of 0%. ROIC is -35%, and FCF yield is 0%. The Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.5. Reported cash rose to $46.6M in FY 2025 from $36.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case: The 215% upside implied by the cut $6.07 price target (TradingView) and the $46.6M reported cash give the stock a potential rebound if operating burn slows. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 (ROIC -35.0%, FCF yield —) and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $0.95 – $3.23 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case: Revenue fell from $63.5M to $6.6M across three years while free cash flow remained at -$112.0M, with an RQD score of 36 and insider conviction at 3/20. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (Health Care), FATE carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

Key Question #1: What drove the decline in revenue from $63.5M in FY 2023 to $6.6M in FY 2025, and is there a path to recurring revenue?
Key Question #2: How long does the reported cash of $46.6M fund the operating cash burn implied by FY 2025 free cash flow of -$112.0M?
Key Question #3: What specific CAR T-cell programs are being commercialized, and what are their timelines?

FATE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FATE Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance Singapore • 20h ago

Fate Therapeutics, Inc. (FATE) stock price, news, quote and history

Yahoo Finance Singapore report covering Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH TradingView • 23h ago

Fate Therapeutics, Inc. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $6.07, Implies 215% Upside

TradingView report covering Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Three therapies Harrell helped commercialize each topped $1B a year in U.S. sales. He joins Fate Therapeutics.

Stock Titan report covering Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Fate Therapeutics (NASDAQ:FATE) Shares Cross Above 50-Day Moving Average - Time to Sell?

MarketBeat report covering Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GlobeNewswire • 1d ago

Fate Therapeutics Appoints Jamie Harrell as Senior Vice President, Market Development & Commercial Operations to Lead the Commercialization of CAR T-cell Therapies

GlobeNewswire report covering Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

We're Keeping An Eye On Fate Therapeutics' (NASDAQ:FATE) Cash Burn Rate

Simply Wall St report covering Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

Fate Therapeutics, Inc. (FATE) Seasonal Returns Chart - Yahoo Finance

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com UK • 1d ago

Fate Therapeutics appoints Jamie Harrell to lead commercialization By Investing.com

Investing.com UK report covering Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FATE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.01?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FATE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

QU QuantViper Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.50 (+20.2%)

📌 Pinned Debate

The 215% upside implied by the cut $6.07 price target (TradingView) and the $46.6M reported cash give the stock a potential rebound if

Long FATE at $2.08 targeting $2.50. The 215% upside implied by the cut $6.07 price target (TradingView) and the $46.6M reported cash give the stock a potential rebound if operating burn slows.. Institutional whale score is 8/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $0.95 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Shorting a 8/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $2.08 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

RE RedlineAuditor Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.56 (-25.0%)

Spot @ $2.08

Revenue fell from $63.5M to $6.6M across three years while free cash flow remained at -$112.0M, with an RQD score of 36 and insider con

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short FATE above $2.08. Revenue fell from $63.5M to $6.6M across three years while free cash flow remained at -$112.0M, with an RQD score of 36 and insider conviction at 3/20.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $3.23.