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Fastenal Company (FAST) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$52.55 +1.23% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $52.79

Fastenal Company (FAST) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 78/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (45.0% gross margin, 27% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $59.56B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FAST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Fastenal Company (NASDAQ: FAST) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 78/100 at a spot price of $52.55 (+1.23% 1D, market cap $59.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FAST ranks #31 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FAST compare to SHW and LOW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (RETAIL: Building Materials), FAST carries a Roarable B+ (78/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 47.9x, gross margin of 45.0%, and ROIC of 27.1%. By comparison, SHW (Sherwin-Williams Company) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 31.0x, ROIC 18.1%, cap $80.35B) and LOW (Lowe's Companies Inc.) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 17.5x, ROIC 50.1%, cap $117.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TSCO leads on earnings multiple (16.0x) while LOW leads on capital efficiency (50.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FAST?
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Per FAST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000815556), Fastenal Company generated $8.20B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $1.26B in net income, and $1.05B in free cash flow against $5.05B in total assets and $100.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (45.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 48x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $52.79 (+0.46%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 12.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 78/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 10% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.6% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510078
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B+
Cash (18)Whales (15)SEC (18)Macro (14)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9% Base Target
$68 Bull$57 Base$43 Bear
📬 FREE FAST RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FAST)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (78/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FAST SCORES 78/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 12.8% FCF Margin ($1.05B FCF) & 45% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 19.35 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 7 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
70
Grade B$52.00+0.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
73
Grade B$52.49-2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
75
Grade B+$51.45+2.1% Next Q
Current
78
Grade B+$52.55+7.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (70) → B+ (78)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FAST Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 78/100 (B+) score, FAST faces multiple-compression risk if 47.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 48x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 42.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($50.56) or 200D SMA ($47.35) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($57.28) toward Bear Floor ($43.09).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FAST• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FAST Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
2.27% Total Yield
1.67% Cash ($0.88/yr) + 0.6% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
68/100 • SAFE COVERAGE
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
62.4% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (7.1% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $19,856

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $451/yr
$10.7K
Yr 1
$11.5K
Yr 2
$12.3K
Yr 3
$13.2K
Yr 4
$14.1K
Yr 5
$15.1K
Yr 6
$16.2K
Yr 7
$17.3K
Yr 8
$18.5K
Yr 9
$19.9K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in FAST & A-Rated Leaders

  • ✓12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on FAST and its top sector peer
  • ✓Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
FAST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.09%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $52.55H $52.55L $51.91C $52.55VOL 11.23M
RES: $53.32SUP: $47.12SMA50: $50.56SMA200: $47.35
$54.03$51.01$48.00$44.99$41.97RES $53.32SUP $47.12$52.552026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FAST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
35.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FAST today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FAST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FAST today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FAST)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #31 of 1009 ⚔️ SHW vs FAST Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (FAST vs. SHW, LOW, TSCO, QXO)

Industry: RETAIL: Building Materials (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Fastenal Company (FAST) ranks #31 by composite RQD confidence (78/100, grade B+) and #36 by equity capitalization ($59.56B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TSCO leads on earnings valuation at 16.0x trailing P/E, while LOW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 50.1% ROIC and 33.5% gross margin. FAST currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 78/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FAST ACTIVE
Fastenal Company
B+ 78/100 47.9x 45.0% 27.1% +1.23% $59.56B Benchmark Subject
SHW
Sherwin-Williams Company
C- 60/100 31.0x 48.8% 18.1% +5.94% $80.35B /shw-vs-fast →
LOW
Lowe's Companies Inc.
C+ 67/100 17.5x 33.5% 50.1% +4.34% $117.30B /low-vs-fast →
TSCO
Tractor Supply Company
B- 70/100 16.0x 36.4% 27.9% +4.04% $17.68B /tsco-vs-fast →
QXO
QXO Inc.
E 26/100 — 23.0% -1.9% +5.80% $11.45B /qxo-vs-fast →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000815556 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Fastenal Company (FAST) reported GAAP revenue of $8.20B (+8.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.55B , and +11.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.26B, operating cash flow of $1.30B, and free cash flow of $1.05B (+11.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, FAST closed FY2025 with $5.05B in total assets against $100.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 19.35, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $8.20B $1.26B $1.30B $1.05B $5.05B $100.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $7.55B $1.15B $1.17B $946.8M $4.70B $125.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $7.35B $1.16B $1.43B $1.10B $33.16B $7.76B

3. FAST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FAST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Fastenal Company (NASDAQ: FAST) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 78/100 at a spot price of $52.55 (+1.23% 1D, market cap $59.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FAST ranks #31 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FAST compare to SHW and LOW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (RETAIL: Building Materials), FAST carries a Roarable B+ (78/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 47.9x, gross margin of 45.0%, and ROIC of 27.1%. By comparison, SHW (Sherwin-Williams Company) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 31.0x, ROIC 18.1%, cap $80.35B) and LOW (Lowe's Companies Inc.) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 17.5x, ROIC 50.1%, cap $117.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TSCO leads on earnings multiple (16.0x) while LOW leads on capital efficiency (50.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FAST?

Per FAST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000815556), Fastenal Company generated $8.20B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $1.26B in net income, and $1.05B in free cash flow against $5.05B in total assets and $100.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (45.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 48x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FAST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FAST last traded at $52.55 (+1.23% on volume of 6,287,633 shares), positioning the stock +3.94% above its 50-day simple moving average ($50.56) and +10.98% above its 200-day simple moving average ($47.35). Across its 52-week range of $38.97 to $53.30, FAST sits at the 94.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.9% ($49.45 to $55.65).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 78/100 (B+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FAST — Fastenal Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Fastenal Company (FAST) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 78/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $52.55 (+1.23% 1D, market capitalization $59.56B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 27.1%, gross margin of 45.0%, operating margin of 20.2%, and free cash flow yield of 1.74%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.02x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 19.35, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.03x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Fastenal Company is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the RETAIL: Building Materials industry. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 45%, an operating margin of 20.2%, and a net margin of 15.3%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Fastenal Company (FAST) reported $8.20B in annual revenue (up from $7.55B in FY2024, +8.7% YoY) and $1.26B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($7.35B revenue, $1.16B net income) through FY2025, FAST scaled operating cash flow to $1.30B and free cash flow to $1.05B, backed by $5.05B in total assets against $100.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B+ • RQD 78/100): Strong cash generator (45.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 18/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $38.97 – $53.30 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Priced at 48x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Investors must weigh 47.9x trailing P/E and 32.2x EV/EBITDA against 20.2% operating margins and a 1.02x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector-level input is the classification (Consumer Discretionary; RETAIL: Building Materials) and the Macro Regime Fit pillar at 14/20.

  • Key Question #1: Can FAST sustain or expand its 20.2% operating margin and 27.1% ROIC against RETAIL: Building Materials peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $8.20B and free cash flow of $1.05B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $100.0M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is FAST's 44.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.02x)?

FAST Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Fastenal Company (FAST) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FAST Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FAST Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $52.55?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FAST 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FAST:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $61.25 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, a 27.1% ROIC, Piotroski F 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.03 indicate a high-return, low-leverage cash engine.

Here is why I am bullish on FAST here at $51.91: Per the RQD rating, a 27.1% ROIC, Piotroski F 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.03 indicate a high-return, low-leverage cash engine.. Compare FAST's 20.2% operating margin and 27.1% ROIC against the rest of RETAIL: Building Materials. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $49.31 are getting bought.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Fair point on 47.9x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in RETAIL: Building Materials. If gross margin (45.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $42.05 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $51.91

At P/E (TTM) 47.9 and an FCF yield of 1.74%, valuation leaves limited cushion if the margin pressure flagged in the news feed persists.

Careful chasing FAST at $51.91. At P/E (TTM) 47.9 and an FCF yield of 1.74%, valuation leaves limited cushion if the margin pressure flagged in the news feed persists.. Gross margin is 45.0%, but operating margin is 20.2%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $42.05 on multiple compression.

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