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Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (EXPD) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$200.56 +0.86% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $201.35

Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (EXPD) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 80/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 40% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $25.85B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is EXPD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (NYSE: EXPD) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 80/100 at a spot price of $200.56 (+0.86% 1D, market cap $25.85B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, EXPD ranks #2 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does EXPD compare to CHRW and BCO in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Integrated Freight & Logistics), EXPD carries a Roarable B+ (80/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 40.3%. By comparison, CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 25.4x, ROIC 22.6%, cap $14.56B) and BCO (Brinks Company) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 21.1x, ROIC 19.6%, cap $4.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCO leads on earnings multiple (21.1x) while EXPD leads on capital efficiency (40.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EXPD?
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Per EXPD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000746515), Expeditors International of Washington Inc. generated $11.07B in revenue (+4.4% YoY), $810.3M in net income, and $508.4M in free cash flow against $4.89B in total assets and $1.15B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $201.34 (+0.39%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 4.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 80/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.3% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510080
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk B
Cash (19)Whales (18)SEC (18)Macro (12)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.9% Base Target
$260 Bull$220 Base$164 Bear
📬 FREE EXPD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EXPD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (80/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY EXPD SCORES 80/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.6% FCF Margin ($508.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+18/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±3.9% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (59.8) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
72
Grade B$196.38+0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
75
Grade B+$197.01+0.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
77
Grade B+$197.15+1.7% Next Q
Current
80
Grade B+$200.56+8.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (72) → B+ (80)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the EXPD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 80/100 (B+) score, EXPD faces multiple-compression risk if 31.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($192.37) or 200D SMA ($167.44) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($220.42) toward Bear Floor ($164.46).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EXPD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “EXPD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 80%NO 20%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±3.9%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (EXPD)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for EXPD.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating EXPD & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on EXPD
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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EXPD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +43.55%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $198.4H $200.6L $198.4C $200.6VOL 1.56M
RES: $203.9SUP: $179.0SMA50: $192.4SMA200: $167.4
$205.2$186.5$167.7$149.0$130.3RES $203.9SUP $179.0$200.62026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EXPD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 EXPD Butterfly Map → + Track EXPD →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
24.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EXPD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EXPD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EXPD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EXPD)

Industrials Rank #2 of 485 ⚔️ CHRW vs EXPD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (EXPD vs. CHRW, BCO, HUBG, FWRD)

Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics (16 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (EXPD) ranks #2 by composite RQD confidence (80/100, grade B+) and #51 by equity capitalization ($25.85B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCO leads on earnings valuation at 21.1x trailing P/E, while EXPD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 40.3% ROIC and — gross margin. EXPD currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 80/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
EXPD ACTIVE
Expeditors International of Washington Inc.
B+ 80/100 31.8x — 40.3% +0.86% $25.85B Benchmark Subject
CHRW
C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.
C+ 68/100 25.4x — 22.6% +3.29% $14.56B /chrw-vs-expd →
BCO
Brinks Company
D 46/100 21.1x 25.8% 19.6% +4.52% $4.23B /bco-vs-expd →
HUBG
Hub Group Inc. (Class A)
D- 42/100 — — — +2.51% $1.63B /hubg-vs-expd →
FWRD
Forward Air Corporation
E 25/100 — — 1.7% +3.97% $595.2M /fwrd-vs-expd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000746515

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (EXPD) reported GAAP revenue of $11.07B (+4.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $10.60B , and +19.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $810.3M, operating cash flow of $1.01B, and free cash flow of $508.4M (+106.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, EXPD closed FY2025 with $4.89B in total assets against $1.15B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 10.70, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $11.07B $810.3M $1.01B $508.4M $4.89B $1.15B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $10.60B $810.1M $723.4M $246.3M $4.75B $1.11B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $9.30B $752.9M $1.05B $634.7M $14.18B $3.32B

3. EXPD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EXPD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (NYSE: EXPD) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 80/100 at a spot price of $200.56 (+0.86% 1D, market cap $25.85B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, EXPD ranks #2 in composite RQD confidence.

How does EXPD compare to CHRW and BCO in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Integrated Freight & Logistics), EXPD carries a Roarable B+ (80/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 40.3%. By comparison, CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 25.4x, ROIC 22.6%, cap $14.56B) and BCO (Brinks Company) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 21.1x, ROIC 19.6%, cap $4.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCO leads on earnings multiple (21.1x) while EXPD leads on capital efficiency (40.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EXPD?

Per EXPD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000746515), Expeditors International of Washington Inc. generated $11.07B in revenue (+4.4% YoY), $810.3M in net income, and $508.4M in free cash flow against $4.89B in total assets and $1.15B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is EXPD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EXPD last traded at $200.56 (+0.86% on volume of 1,874,174 shares), positioning the stock +4.26% above its 50-day simple moving average ($192.37) and +19.78% above its 200-day simple moving average ($167.44). Across its 52-week range of $120.94 to $200.66, EXPD sits at the 99.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.9% ($192.74 to $208.38).

Direct Sub-Reports: EXPD RQD Cockpit EXPD 12M Forecast EXPD Earnings & Move EXPD Dividends & DRIP EXPD Insiders & 13F EXPD Whale Options EXPD Profit Sankey EXPD News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 80/100 (B+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

EXPD — Expeditors International of Washington Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (EXPD) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 80/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $200.56 (+0.86% 1D, market capitalization $25.85B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (19/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 40.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 9.5%, and free cash flow yield of 1.97%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (18/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 0.89x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 10.70, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.42x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Expeditors International of Washington Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, operating in the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry. The financial data indicates revenue of $11.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (EXPD) reported $11.07B in annual revenue (up from $10.60B in FY2024, +4.4% YoY) and $810.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($9.30B revenue, $752.9M net income) through FY2025, EXPD scaled operating cash flow to $1.01B and free cash flow to $508.4M, backed by $4.89B in total assets against $1.15B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B+ • RQD 80/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 19/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 18/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $120.94 – $200.66 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 31.8x trailing P/E and 17.3x EV/EBITDA against 9.5% operating margins and a 0.89x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Integrated Freight & Logistics (Industrials), EXPD carries a macro regime beta of 0.89 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can EXPD sustain or expand its 9.5% operating margin and 40.3% ROIC against Integrated Freight & Logistics peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $11.07B and free cash flow of $508.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.15B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is EXPD's 29.6x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.89x)?

EXPD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (EXPD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to EXPD Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

EXPD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $200.56?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON EXPD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on EXPD:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $234.64 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The RQD rating shows strong cash economics, with ROIC of 40.3% and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, alongside a Stifel price target raise to

Here is why I am bullish on EXPD here at $198.85: The RQD rating shows strong cash economics, with ROIC of 40.3% and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, alongside a Stifel price target raise to $190.. Compare EXPD's 9.5% operating margin and 40.3% ROIC against the rest of Integrated Freight & Logistics. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $188.91 are getting bought.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MultipleCompression Fair point on 31.8x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Integrated Freight & Logistics. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $163.06 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $198.85

Trailing P/E of 31.8 and a 1.97% FCF yield leave the valuation demanding, while insider selling is flagged as a RED risk-watch item.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short EXPD above $198.85. Trailing P/E of 31.8 and a 1.97% FCF yield leave the valuation demanding, while insider selling is flagged as a RED risk-watch item.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (19/20) and FCF yield (1.97%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $200.66.

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