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CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$36.14 -0.69% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.03

CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $8.60B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CTRE Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CTRE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, CareTrust REIT Inc. (NYSE: CTRE) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $36.14 (-0.69% 1D, market cap $8.60B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CTRE ranks #331 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CTRE compare to ADC and JAN in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), CTRE carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 26.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.2%. By comparison, ADC (Agree Realty Corporation) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 43.0x, ROIC 3.5%, cap $8.73B) and JAN (Janus Living Inc. Class A-1) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.4%, cap $8.85B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BRX leads on earnings multiple (23.2x) while CTRE leads on capital efficiency (7.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTRE?
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Per CTRE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001590717), CareTrust REIT Inc. generated $1.2M in revenue (-99.7% YoY), $320.5M in net income, and $394.0M in free cash flow against $5.15B in total assets and $490.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.03 (-0.31%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 32161.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510062
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (15)Whales (7)SEC (15)Macro (10)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
$46 Bull$37 Base$29 Bear
📬 FREE CTRE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CTRE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CTRE SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 32161.1% FCF Margin ($394.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
70
Grade B$36.31-1.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
67
Grade B-$35.65-0.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$35.45+1.9% Next Q
Current
62
Grade C$36.14+0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (70) → C (62)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CTRE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, CTRE faces multiple-compression risk if 26.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.32) or 200D SMA ($38.99) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($36.79) toward Bear Floor ($28.70).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CTRE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CTRE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±4.4%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (CTRE)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for CTRE.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating CTRE & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on CTRE
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CTRE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.51%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $36.26H $36.39L $36.14C $36.14VOL 2.09M
RES: $44.38SUP: $33.94SMA50: $37.32SMA200: $38.99
$44.21$41.76$39.30$36.84$34.39RES $44.38SUP $33.94$36.142026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CTRE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CTRE Butterfly Map → + Track CTRE →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
20.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -99.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CTRE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CTRE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CTRE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CTRE)

Financials Rank #331 of 1097 ⚔️ ADC vs CTRE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CTRE vs. ADC, JAN, BRX, LINE)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) ranks #331 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #208 by equity capitalization ($8.60B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BRX leads on earnings valuation at 23.2x trailing P/E, while CTRE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.2% ROIC and — gross margin. BRX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with CTRE at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CTRE ACTIVE
CareTrust REIT Inc.
C 62/100 26.7x — 7.2% -0.69% $8.60B Benchmark Subject
ADC
Agree Realty Corporation
C 62/100 43.0x — 3.5% +2.10% $8.73B /adc-vs-ctre →
JAN
Janus Living Inc. Class A-1
D+ 55/100 — — 0.4% -0.24% $8.85B /jan-vs-ctre →
BRX
Brixmor Property Group Inc.
C 64/100 23.2x — 7.1% +1.44% $8.94B /brx-vs-ctre →
LINE
Lineage Inc.
D 46/100 — — 1.2% +2.83% $8.20B /line-vs-ctre →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001590717 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) reported GAAP revenue of $1.2M (-99.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $413.3M , and -99.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $320.5M, operating cash flow of $394.0M, and free cash flow of $394.0M (+61.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, CTRE closed FY2025 with $5.15B in total assets against $490.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.2M $320.5M $394.0M $394.0M $5.15B $490.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $413.3M $125.1M $244.3M $244.3M $3.44B $228.4M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $177.5M $53.7M $154.8M $154.8M $4.71B $1.10B

3. CTRE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CTRE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, CareTrust REIT Inc. (NYSE: CTRE) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $36.14 (-0.69% 1D, market cap $8.60B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CTRE ranks #331 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CTRE compare to ADC and JAN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), CTRE carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 26.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.2%. By comparison, ADC (Agree Realty Corporation) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 43.0x, ROIC 3.5%, cap $8.73B) and JAN (Janus Living Inc. Class A-1) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.4%, cap $8.85B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BRX leads on earnings multiple (23.2x) while CTRE leads on capital efficiency (7.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTRE?

Per CTRE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001590717), CareTrust REIT Inc. generated $1.2M in revenue (-99.7% YoY), $320.5M in net income, and $394.0M in free cash flow against $5.15B in total assets and $490.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CTRE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CTRE last traded at $36.14 (-0.69% on volume of 5,326,920 shares), positioning the stock -3.16% below its 50-day simple moving average ($37.32) and -7.31% below its 200-day simple moving average ($38.99). Across its 52-week range of $34.28 to $43.62, CTRE sits at the 19.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.4% ($34.55 to $37.73).

Direct Sub-Reports: CTRE RQD Cockpit CTRE 12M Forecast CTRE Earnings & Move CTRE Dividends & DRIP CTRE Insiders & 13F CTRE Whale Options CTRE Profit Sankey CTRE News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 62/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CTRE — CareTrust REIT Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 62/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $36.14 (-0.69% 1D, market capitalization $8.60B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 75.0%, and free cash flow yield of 4.60%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.08x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

CareTrust REIT Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating within the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. Market capitalization is listed at $8.6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) reported $1.2M in annual revenue (up from $413.3M in FY2024, -99.7% YoY) and $320.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($177.5M revenue, $53.7M net income) through FY2025, CTRE scaled operating cash flow to $394.0M and free cash flow to $394.0M, backed by $5.15B in total assets against $490.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 62/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $34.28 – $43.62 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 26.7x trailing P/E and 22.6x EV/EBITDA against 75.0% operating margins and a 1.08x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), CTRE carries a macro regime beta of 1.08 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can CTRE sustain or expand its 75.0% operating margin and 7.2% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.2M and free cash flow of $394.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $490.3M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CTRE's 24.8x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.08x)?

CTRE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CTRE Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CTRE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $36.14?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CTRE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CTRE:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $41.85 (+15.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Cash generation has grown from $154.8M in FY 2023 to $394.0M in FY 2025 while the forensic pillar earns 15/20 on a Piotroski F-Score of

Cash generation has grown from $154.8M in FY 2023 to $394.0M in FY 2025 while the forensic pillar earns 15/20 on a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.. When you look under the hood at CTRE, Fundamental Cash Engine is 15/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 7.2% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (7/20) has been quietly accumulating below $43.62. My 12M target is $41.85.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 26.7x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate Investment Trusts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $29.84 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $36.39

Institutional flow scores only 7/20 and the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 26.7 against an EPS (TTM) of 1.36, with a valuation debate a

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on CTRE: Institutional flow scores only 7/20 and the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 26.7 against an EPS (TTM) of 1.36, with a valuation debate already in the news flow.. At 26.7x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Real Estate Investment Trusts triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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