Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$37.16 -3.51% NASDAQ โ€ข Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.85

Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59โ€“69), meaning current holders donโ€™t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C โ€ข HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.14B
๐Ÿ“ค Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: ๐• Post Reddit StockTwits โฌ‡ Live SVG Card
โšก INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW โ€ข $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CSTL Below โ€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
๐Ÿค– Mara Quenwick โ€ข AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CSTL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
โ–ผ

As of 2026-11-03, Castle Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $37.16 (-3.51% 1D, market cap $1.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, CSTL ranks #152 in composite RQD confidence.

โœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
๐Ÿค– Ellis Vennor โ€ข AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CSTL compare to LMRI and TRUP in the Health Care sector?
โ–ผ

Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), CSTL carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 79.4%, and ROIC of -9.3%. By comparison, LMRI (Lumexa Imaging Holdings Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC โ€”, cap $1.10B) and TRUP (Trupanion Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 68.2x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $1.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRUP leads on earnings multiple (68.2x) while ALHC leads on capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC).

โœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
๐Ÿค– Gideon Ashmere โ€ข AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CSTL?
โ–ผ

Per CSTL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001447362), Castle Biosciences Inc. generated $344.2M in revenue (+3.7% YoY), -$24.2M in net income, and $28.3M in free cash flow against $578.6M in total assets and $9.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

โœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
๐Ÿค– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists โ€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.86 (-0.82%)๐Ÿงฌ Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)โš™๏ธ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) โ€ข 8.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit โ†’
๐Ÿ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY โ€ข 54.3% hit rate โ€” wait for RQD โ‰ฅ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record โ†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH โ€ข C
025507510062
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0โ€“100 RQD rubric) โ€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ ยท Rk C+
Cash (13)Whales (15)SEC (14)Macro (13)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0โ€“20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
$46 Bull$38 Base$30 Bear
๐Ÿ“ฌ FREE CSTL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: โ€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CSTL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ยฑ10.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
๐Ÿ” WHY CSTL SCORES 62/100 (C) โ€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
โ–ฒ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (ยฑ10.1% realized swing band)

โ–ฒ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.97 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) โ€ข Piotroski F-Score 6/9

โ–ผ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

๐Ÿ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 โ†’ Q2 โ†’ Q3 โ†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
54
Grade C-$32.88+0.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
57
Grade C$33.15+4.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
59
Grade C$34.51+7.7% Next Q
Current
62
Grade C$37.16+0.7% Hist 90D ฮฑ
Trajectory: C- (54) โ†’ C (62)Full Audit โ†’
โš”๏ธ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

โš”๏ธ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CSTL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk โ†’

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, CSTL faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

โš ๏ธ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

โš ๏ธ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) โ€” any gross margin slip below 76.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

โš ๏ธ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($34.38) or 200D SMA ($28.50) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($37.83) toward Bear Floor ($29.51).

๐ŸŽฒ LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CSTLโ€ข $2.4M Crowd Pool โ€ข Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: โ€œCSTL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMAโ€
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
โ€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: โ€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
โ€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
ยฑ10.1%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (CSTL)

โ€” (No Active Options Snapshot) โ€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for CSTL.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating CSTL & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • โœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on CSTL
  • โœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • โœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CSTL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +45.61%โ–ฒ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $38.51H $38.51L $37.16C $37.16VOL 334.4K
RES: $39.91SUP: $32.42SMA50: $34.38SMA200: $28.50
$40.19$34.10$28.01$21.92$15.83RES $39.91SUP $32.42$37.162026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CSTL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CSTL today. View full Setup Ledger โ†’

๐Ÿฆ‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph โ†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CSTL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
๐ŸŽฌ No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CSTL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk โ†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT โ€ข SEC EDGAR XBRL ร— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

๐Ÿ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CSTL)

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (CSTL vs. LMRI, TRUP, FRNM, ALHC)

Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) ranks #152 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #341 by equity capitalization ($1.14B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TRUP leads on earnings valuation at 68.2x trailing P/E, while ALHC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.9% ROIC and โ€” gross margin. TRUP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with CSTL at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CSTL ACTIVE
Castle Biosciences Inc.
C 62/100 โ€” 79.4% -9.3% -3.51% $1.14B Benchmark Subject
LMRI
Lumexa Imaging Holdings Inc.
D+ 53/100 โ€” โ€” โ€” -2.73% $1.10B /lmri-vs-cstl โ†’
TRUP
Trupanion Inc.
C 63/100 68.2x 16.1% 3.1% -0.20% $1.32B /trup-vs-cstl โ†’
FRNM
Freenome Inc.
E 31/100 โ€” โ€” -3.4% -2.95% $1.34B /frnm-vs-cstl โ†’
ALHC
Alignment Healthcare Inc.
D+ 56/100 โ€” โ€” 13.9% -9.80% $1.52B /alhc-vs-cstl โ†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023โ€“FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K โ€ข FILED 2025-12-31 โ€ข CIK 0001447362

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) reported GAAP revenue of $344.2M (+3.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $332.1M , and +56.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$24.2M, operating cash flow of $64.3M, and free cash flow of $28.3M (-22.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, CSTL closed FY2025 with $578.6M in total assets against $9.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.97, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $344.2M -$24.2M $64.3M $28.3M $578.6M $9.6M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $332.1M $18.2M $64.9M $36.5M $531.2M $9.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $219.8M -$57.5M -$5.6M -$5.6M โ€” โ€”

3. CSTL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

โœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CSTL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Castle Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $37.16 (-3.51% 1D, market cap $1.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, CSTL ranks #152 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CSTL compare to LMRI and TRUP in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), CSTL carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 79.4%, and ROIC of -9.3%. By comparison, LMRI (Lumexa Imaging Holdings Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC โ€”, cap $1.10B) and TRUP (Trupanion Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 68.2x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $1.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRUP leads on earnings multiple (68.2x) while ALHC leads on capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CSTL?

Per CSTL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001447362), Castle Biosciences Inc. generated $344.2M in revenue (+3.7% YoY), -$24.2M in net income, and $28.3M in free cash flow against $578.6M in total assets and $9.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CSTL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CSTL last traded at $37.16 (-3.51% on volume of 334,364 shares), positioning the stock +8.09% above its 50-day simple moving average ($34.38) and +30.39% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.50). Across its 52-week range of $17.72 to $44.28, CSTL sits at the 73.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ยฑ10.1% ($33.41 to $40.91).

CSTL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS โ€ข SEC EDGAR ร— CBOE ร— FRED

What is CSTL's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for CSTL.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF โ€ข RQD 62/100 (C) โœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

CSTL โ€” Castle Biosciences Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:30:23Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CSTL scores 63 / 100, letter grade C, with the verdict "Roarable Hold โ€” Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 13 / 20 (ROIC -9.3%; FCF yield 2.41%); Whale 13F Flow 16 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction 7 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit 13 / 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet 14 / 20 (Altman Z 6.97; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.02). For a prospective investor, the strongest pillar is institutional positioning, while the weakest is insider conviction, which the rating scores at 7 of 20. The negative ROIC and the 2.41% FCF yield indicate that the cash-generation case is modest rather than compelling. The balance-sheet pillar offers the most support, given the low leverage and the forensic scores reported. Taken together, the rating frames CSTL as a balanced risk-reward profile rather than a clear upside or downside setup, so the upside drivers are the institutional and balance-sheet strengths, and the valuation tradeoff is weak operating profitability against a share price that has moved sharply within its 52-week range.

Business

Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector and Medical Specialities industry, per the company profile. The source data does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification. Per the SEC financials, the company reported FY 2025 revenue of $344.2M and a gross margin of 79.4% per the market data section. The source data does not identify specific products or customer segments.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$344.2M$-42.8M$-24.2MN/A$28.3M$116.7M$9.6M
FY 2024$332.1M$8.7M$18.2MN/A$36.5M$119.7M$9.7M
FY 2023$219.8M$-68.0M$-57.5MN/A$-5.6MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $219.8M in FY 2023 to $344.2M in FY 2025, but operating income moved from positive in FY 2024 to $-42.8M in FY 2025. The market data reports an operating margin of -12.4%, a net margin of -7%, and ROIC of -9.3%. The forensic balance sheet pillar cites an Altman Z-Score of 6.97 and a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, alongside a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.02. Reported cash of $116.7M against debt of $9.6M reflects low leverage in FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news section, the catalysts are largely market-wire items. A headline states that Castle Biosciences will participate in upcoming investor conferences. Multiple items report insider selling by the Chief Commercial Officer, including a sale of 3,288 shares and a proposal to sell 13,154 shares, and one headline describes the stock price declining 6.1% following insider selling. A TradingView item cites a Q3'26 revenue estimate of 92.41M USD. The item flagged as RISK WATCH is a Simply Wall St report noting the stock dropped. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply-chain classification is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. The source data therefore does not identify upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations. Watch items grounded in the source data are the recurring insider-selling headlines, which bear on the insider conviction pillar, and the reported Q3'26 revenue estimate, which the source data does not connect to any supply-chain driver.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's specific products, customers, and revenue drivers, given that the source data gives only sector and industry classification?
  • What drove the move from negative operating income in FY 2025 to a positive operating result in FY 2024, and what is the path back to profitability?
  • Why are EPS, P/E, forward P/E, and EV/EBITDA unavailable, and how does the valuation compare to peers?
  • What is the size and pattern of the insider-selling activity referenced in the news, and how does it reconcile with the insider conviction score of 7 / 20?
  • What is the FY 2026 financial trajectory, given that the only forward datapoint is a Q3'26 revenue estimate without corresponding profit estimates?

CSTL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) โ€ข Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

๐Ÿ’ฌ Jump to CSTL Debate Forum (3) โ†“
๐Ÿ”ฅ THE ROAR PIT โ€ข LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CSTL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board โ€” What's Your Call at $37.16?

๐Ÿ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CSTL ๐Ÿป 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CSTL:
๐Ÿ’ก Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk โš–๏ธ DEBATE HOST ๐ŸŽฏ Target: $41.59 (+8.0%)
๐Ÿ“Œ Pinned Debate

๐Ÿ”ฅ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is CSTL (C โ€ข RQD 63/100) a Buy at $38.51?

Welcome to the CSTL (Castle Biosciences Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 63/100 (Roarable Hold โ€” Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Medical Specialities. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (๐Ÿ‚ Bull or ๐Ÿป Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch ๐Ÿป BEARISH ๐ŸŽฏ Target: $31.58 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $38.51

Pump the brakes on CSTL โ€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on CSTL, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 79.4% gross margins. Unless Castle Biosciences Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader ๐Ÿ‚ BULLISH ๐ŸŽฏ Target: $48.52 (+26.0%)
Spot @ $38.51

CSTL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on CSTL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Medical Specialities and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $38.51 (52-wk range $17.72 - $44.28), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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