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Cerence Inc. (CRNC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$8.09 -1.22% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.06

Cerence Inc. (CRNC) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $365.9M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CRNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Cerence Inc. (NASDAQ: CRNC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $8.09 (-1.22% 1D, market cap $365.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, CRNC ranks #508 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CRNC compare to API and LAW in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), CRNC carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 72.7%, and ROIC of -0.6%. By comparison, API (Agora Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 39.1x, ROIC -1.5%, cap $367.8M) and LAW (CS Disco Inc.) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $340.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, API leads on earnings multiple (39.1x) while MKTW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CRNC?
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Per CRNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001768267), Cerence Inc. generated $251.8M in revenue (-24.0% YoY), -$18.7M in net income, and $46.8M in free cash flow against $602.0M in total assets and $171.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.06 (-0.41%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 18.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510036
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk E
Cash (9)Whales (5)SEC (6)Macro (7)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target
$14 Bull$7 Base$6 Bear
📬 FREE CRNC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CRNC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CRNC SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 18.6% FCF Margin ($46.8M FCF) & 72.7% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+9/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 45% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$8.89-0.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$8.88-4.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
39
Grade E$8.47-4.5% Next Q
Current
36
Grade D-$8.09-8.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CRNC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CRNC currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.31) and Max Pain ($8.49) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $13.94.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CRNC• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CRNC Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CRNC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $8.09: 1236.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $5.69
$7,033
$-2,967 (-29.7%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $7.29
$9,011
$-989 (-9.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $13.94
$17,231
+$7,231 (+72.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$874%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1369%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$658%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CRNC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CRNC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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CRNC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -21.91%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $8.19H $8.19L $8.09C $8.09VOL 463.2K
RES: $9.47SUP: $7.82SMA50: $8.31SMA200: $8.94
$13.68$12.01$10.34$8.67$7.00RES $9.47SUP $7.82$8.092026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CRNC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CRNC Butterfly Map → + Track CRNC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -24.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CRNC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CRNC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CRNC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CRNC)

Technology Rank #508 of 715 ⚔️ API vs CRNC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (CRNC vs. API, LAW, MTLS, MKTW)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Cerence Inc. (CRNC) ranks #508 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #433 by equity capitalization ($365.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, API leads on earnings valuation at 39.1x trailing P/E, while MKTW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 86.5% gross margin. MKTW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with CRNC at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CRNC ACTIVE
Cerence Inc.
D- 36/100 — 72.7% -0.6% -1.22% $365.9M Benchmark Subject
API
Agora Inc.
D+ 53/100 39.1x 66.4% -1.5% -1.35% $367.8M /api-vs-crnc →
LAW
CS Disco Inc.
D- 35/100 — 74.9% -35.0% -1.13% $340.2M /law-vs-crnc →
MTLS
Materialise NV
D+ 53/100 — — — -0.83% $424.1M /mtls-vs-crnc →
MKTW
MarketWise Inc. (Class A)
C+ 69/100 56.1x 86.5% 85.0% -0.43% $313.7M /mktw-vs-crnc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001768267 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Cerence Inc. (CRNC) reported GAAP revenue of $251.8M (-24.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $331.5M , and -14.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$18.7M, operating cash flow of $61.2M, and free cash flow of $46.8M (+283.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, CRNC closed FY2025 with $602.0M in total assets against $171.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $251.8M -$18.7M $61.2M $46.8M $602.0M $171.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $331.5M -$588.1M $17.2M $12.2M $617.5M $196.2M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $294.5M -$56.3M $7.5M $7.5M — —

3. CRNC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CRNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Cerence Inc. (NASDAQ: CRNC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $8.09 (-1.22% 1D, market cap $365.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, CRNC ranks #508 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CRNC compare to API and LAW in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), CRNC carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 72.7%, and ROIC of -0.6%. By comparison, API (Agora Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 39.1x, ROIC -1.5%, cap $367.8M) and LAW (CS Disco Inc.) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $340.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, API leads on earnings multiple (39.1x) while MKTW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CRNC?

Per CRNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001768267), Cerence Inc. generated $251.8M in revenue (-24.0% YoY), -$18.7M in net income, and $46.8M in free cash flow against $602.0M in total assets and $171.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CRNC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CRNC last traded at $8.09 (-1.22% on volume of 463,212 shares), positioning the stock -2.65% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.31) and -9.51% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.94). Across its 52-week range of $5.85 to $13.28, CRNC sits at the 30.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.0% ($7.28 to $8.90).

Direct Sub-Reports: CRNC RQD Cockpit CRNC 12M Forecast CRNC Earnings & Move CRNC Dividends & DRIP CRNC Insiders & 13F CRNC Whale Options CRNC Profit Sankey CRNC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 36/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CRNC — Cerence Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Cerence Inc. (CRNC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 36/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $8.09 (-1.22% 1D, market capitalization $365.9M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -0.6%, gross margin of 72.7%, operating margin of -0.9%, and free cash flow yield of 12.64%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (6/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.14x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Cerence Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, classified under Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. The profile identifies it as a publicly traded US company with a market capitalization of $0.4B. Gross margin of 72.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), Cerence Inc. (CRNC) reported $251.8M in annual revenue (up from $331.5M in FY2024, -24.0% YoY) and -$18.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($294.5M revenue, -$56.3M net income) through FY2025, CRNC scaled operating cash flow to $61.2M and free cash flow to $46.8M, backed by $602.0M in total assets against $171.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 36/100): Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 12.64% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.85 – $13.28 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -0.9% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector classification (Technology / Prepackaged Software) is the only available cross-reference. A prospective investor should watch for disclosure of major customers, suppliers, and any licensing dependencies, as these are the typical second-order channels for a prepackaged software issuer but are not documented here.

  • Key Question #1: Can CRNC sustain or expand its -0.9% operating margin and -0.6% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $251.8M and free cash flow of $46.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $171.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CRNC's equity valuation to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CRNC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Cerence Inc. (CRNC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CRNC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CRNC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $8.09?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CRNC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CRNC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $9.55 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported free cash flow stayed positive in every shown period, and the rating records a 12.64% FCF yield.

Here is why I am bullish on CRNC here at $8.09: Reported free cash flow stayed positive in every shown period, and the rating records a 12.64% FCF yield.. Compare CRNC's -0.9% operating margin and -0.6% ROIC against the rest of Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $7.69 are getting bought.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. If gross margin (72.7%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.63 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $8.09

The Altman Z-Score of 0.2 and ROIC of -0.6% signal balance-sheet and capital-return stress that the rating flags as the primary risk.

The Altman Z-Score of 0.2 and ROIC of -0.6% signal balance-sheet and capital-return stress that the rating flags as the primary risk.. Look at the math on CRNC: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -0.6% ROIC and -0.9% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Computer Software: Prepackaged Software demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $7.12 before getting long.

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