ConocoPhillips (COP) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$154.03 +2.67% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $155.14

ConocoPhillips (COP) earns a Roarable Rating of A- (Buy) with 82/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (57% profit margin, 9% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE A- β€’ BUY Cap $180.24B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on COP Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is COP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 82/100 at a spot price of $154.03 (+2.67% 1D, market cap $180.24B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 19/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, COP ranks #5 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does COP compare to BP and MPC in the Energy sector?
β–Ό

Within the Energy sector (Integrated oil Companies), COP carries a Roarable A- (82/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.6x, gross margin of 56.9%, and ROIC of 9.4%. By comparison, BP (BP p.l.c.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $131.81B) and MPC (Marathon Petroleum Corporation) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 30.0x, ROIC 16.9%, cap $121.46B). Among the 5-stock peer group, COP leads on earnings multiple (22.6x) while MPC leads on capital efficiency (16.9% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COP?
β–Ό

Per COP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001163165), ConocoPhillips generated $51.82B in revenue (+4.9% YoY), $7.99B in net income, and $17.46B in free cash flow against $121.94B in total assets and $25.85B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $155.14 (+0.72%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 33.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 82/100 (A-) historically ranked in the Top 7% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 71.9% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY β€’ A-
025507510082
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- Β· Rk A-
Cash (14)Whales (19)SEC (16)Macro (17)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+10.8% Base Target
$201 Bull$171 Base$126 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE COP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for COP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±4.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (82/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY COP SCORES 82/100 (A-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+19/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±4.5% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+17/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime Γ— Technicals: 99% of 52W Range β€’ RSI-14 at 64.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality14/20 pts (-6 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 18.2% operating margin leave 6 pts on the table

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
74
Grade B+$140.90+3.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
77
Grade B+$145.95+1.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
79
Grade A-$147.96+4.1% Next Q
Current
82
Grade A-$154.03+8.6% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: B+ (74) β†’ A- (82)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the COP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 82/100 (A-) score, COP faces multiple-compression risk if 22.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 54.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($136.77) or 200D SMA ($121.82) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($170.67) toward Bear Floor ($126.30).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $COPβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œCOP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL β€’ FY 2025 (10-K)

How COP Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$17.46B (33.7% FCF Margin)
Revenue$51.82BGross Profit $29.50B (56.9%)Cost of Sales $22.32BOp Profit $9.43B (18.2%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $20.07BNet Profit$7.99B (15.4%)Tax/Other $1.44B

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

β–  Revenueβ–  Net Profitβ–  Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $48.52B
FY24
Rev $49.42B
FY25
Rev $51.82B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$51.82B56.9%18.2%$7.99B$17.46B8.9%
FY 2024$49.42B59.5%22.1%$9.24B$17.90B10.1%
FY 2023$48.52B56.9%26.6%$10.96B$17.78B17.1%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring COP)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of COP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
COP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.31%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $149.1H $154.0L $149.1C $154.0VOL 5.13M
RES: $155.0SUP: $131.8SMA50: $136.8SMA200: $121.8
$158.0$142.7$127.4$112.1$96.83RES $155.0SUP $131.8$154.02026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

COP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
16.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on COP today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for COP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for COP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (COP)

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (COP vs. BP, MPC, EQNR, VLO)

Industry: Integrated oil Companies (15 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ConocoPhillips (COP) ranks #5 by composite RQD confidence (82/100, grade A-) and #6 by equity capitalization ($180.24B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, COP leads on earnings valuation at 22.6x trailing P/E, while MPC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.9% ROIC and 10.0% gross margin. COP currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 82/100 (A-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
COP ACTIVE
ConocoPhillips
A- 82/100 22.6x 56.9% 9.4% +2.67% $180.24B Benchmark Subject
BP
BP p.l.c.
B 72/100 32.8x β€” 9.9% +0.08% $131.81B /bp-vs-cop β†’
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
B- 70/100 30.0x 10.0% 16.9% +2.83% $121.46B /mpc-vs-cop β†’
EQNR
Equinor ASA
B 74/100 32.8x β€” 9.9% +2.46% $118.96B /eqnr-vs-cop β†’
VLO
Valero Energy Corporation
C+ 69/100 45.7x β€” 8.2% +3.92% $107.25B /vlo-vs-cop β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001163165

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ConocoPhillips (COP) reported GAAP revenue of $51.82B (+4.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $49.42B , and +6.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $7.99B, operating cash flow of $19.80B, and free cash flow of $17.46B (-2.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, COP closed FY2025 with $121.94B in total assets against $25.85B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.40, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $51.82B $7.99B $19.80B $17.46B $121.94B $25.85B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $49.42B $9.24B $20.12B $17.90B $122.78B $26.09B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $48.52B $10.96B $19.96B $17.78B $99.13B $23.20B

3. COP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is COP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 82/100 at a spot price of $154.03 (+2.67% 1D, market cap $180.24B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 19/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, COP ranks #5 in composite RQD confidence.

How does COP compare to BP and MPC in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Integrated oil Companies), COP carries a Roarable A- (82/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.6x, gross margin of 56.9%, and ROIC of 9.4%. By comparison, BP (BP p.l.c.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $131.81B) and MPC (Marathon Petroleum Corporation) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 30.0x, ROIC 16.9%, cap $121.46B). Among the 5-stock peer group, COP leads on earnings multiple (22.6x) while MPC leads on capital efficiency (16.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COP?

Per COP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001163165), ConocoPhillips generated $51.82B in revenue (+4.9% YoY), $7.99B in net income, and $17.46B in free cash flow against $121.94B in total assets and $25.85B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is COP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

COP last traded at $154.03 (+2.67% on volume of 7,033,209 shares), positioning the stock +12.62% above its 50-day simple moving average ($136.77) and +26.44% above its 200-day simple moving average ($121.82). Across its 52-week range of $85.57 to $154.28, COP sits at the 99.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±4.5% ($147.10 to $160.96).

COP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

How profitable is ConocoPhillips (COP)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), COP converted $51.8B of revenue into a 56.9% gross margin, 18.2% operating margin, and $17.5B in free cash flow (33.7% FCF margin).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 82/100 (A-) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

COP β€” ConocoPhillips: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:09:10Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ConocoPhillips scores 82 out of 100, graded A- and labeled "Roarable Buy β€” Superior Risk/Reward." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20 (ROIC 9.4%; FCF yield 9.69%); Whale 13F Flow 19/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction 16/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit 17/20 (beta 1.16; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet 16/20 (Altman Z 3.4; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 0.37). The strongest pillar is institutional flow, while the Fundamental Cash Engine is the lowest-scored pillar, suggesting that cash generation is rated more modestly than positioning signals. For a prospective investor, the composite points to a balance-sheet profile and flow picture the rating characterizes as favorable, with the main upside driver being the combination of free cash flow yield and institutional positioning. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the market data: trailing P/E of 22.6 and EV/EBITDA of 16.9 are the context against which the cash-yield argument should be weighed. The rating is an analytical output from the supplied data and is not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
150.03$180.24B22.62116.96.652.22%1.16$85.57 - $154.289.4%

Business

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is classified in the Energy sector and the Integrated oil Companies industry, per the company profile. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 56.9%, an operating margin of 18.8%, and a net margin of 15.4%. The source data does not describe specific products, customers, or revenue-generating segments beyond these classifications and margins.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$51824.0M$9425.8M$7988.0MN/A$17463.9M$6497.0M$25853.4M
FY 2024$49418.0M$10909.1M$9245.0MN/A$17900.2M$5607.0M$26092.8M
FY 2023$48522.0M$12929.3M$10957.0MN/A$17781.5MN/A$23196.5M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $48522.0M (FY 2023) to $51824.0M (FY 2025), while net income declined from $10957.0M to $7988.0M over the same span. Operating income and net income both fell across the three periods, though free cash flow remained in a $17.4B–$17.9B range. Per the market data, ROIC is 9.4%, and per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 3.4, the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.37. Balance sheet posture, as reported, is characterized by moderate leverage and strong forensic scores.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts feed, six COP-related items are listed, all sourced from Google News RSS aggregation of Yahoo Finance, The Motley Fool, Barchart.com, and TradingKey:

  • Catalyst (GREEN): "ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock Looks Like A Bargain On Earnings" (Yahoo Finance).
  • Market wire (YELLOW): A Motley Fool headline referencing oil prices above $100 and a $7 billion offer.
  • Market wire (YELLOW): A Barchart.com piece on a trading range and short put positioning.
  • Market wire (YELLOW): A TradingKey report on a 3.07% move on Oct 8.
  • Market wire (YELLOW): A Yahoo Finance comparison of COP against WHD.
  • Market wire (YELLOW): A Yahoo Finance headline describing a stock that "Stays Hard To Call On Strong Q2 Earnings."

Risk watch items are implied by the YELLOW flags and by the "hard to call" framing of the earnings-related headline. The source data does not provide full article text, so the specifics of the $7 billion offer and oil-price claims cannot be verified from the supplied material. Proprietary signals: Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, there are no proprietary signals and no supply-chain links (supply_chain: NONE).

Open Questions

  • Source data does not include EPS for any reported fiscal period (all listed as N/A), so per-share earnings trend cannot be assessed from the filings provided.
  • Cash for FY 2023 is listed as N/A, leaving the three-year cash trend incomplete.
  • The content of the $7 billion offer referenced in the news feed is not described in the source data, so its relevance to valuation cannot be determined.
  • No analyst consensus, price targets, or holder data are supplied, so institutional and insider positioning can only be taken from the RQD pillar scores rather than verified transaction data.
  • The 52-week range sits near its high ($150.03 price vs. $154.28 high), but the source does not explain the drivers behind the move from $85.57.

COP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ConocoPhillips (COP) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to COP Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

COP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $154.03?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON COP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on COP:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $177.04 (+18.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is COP (A- β€’ RQD 82/100) a Buy at $150.03?

Welcome to the COP (ConocoPhillips) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 82/100 (Roarable Buy β€” Superior Risk/Reward) in Integrated oil Companies. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $112.52 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $150.03

Pump the brakes on COP β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on COP, but look at what you are paying: 22.6x trailing P/E with 56.9% gross margins. Unless ConocoPhillips expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $184.54 (+23.0%)
Spot @ $150.03

COP cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on COP, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Integrated oil Companies and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $150.03 (52-wk range $85.57 - $154.28), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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