Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$31.89 +1.95% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.94

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $39.58B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $31.89 (+1.95% 1D, market cap $39.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CMG ranks #162 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CMG compare to YUM and QSR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CMG carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.2%. By comparison, YUM (Yum! Brands Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 27.1x, ROIC 60.3%, cap $42.18B) and QSR (Restaurant Brands International Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 30.9x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $33.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, YUMC leads on earnings multiple (16.7x) while YUM leads on capital efficiency (60.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CMG?
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Per CMG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001058090), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. generated $11.93B in revenue (+5.4% YoY), $1.54B in net income, and $1.45B in free cash flow against $8.99B in total assets and $2.77B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.94 (+0.16%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 12.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (18)Whales (10)SEC (18)Macro (7)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target
$43 Bull$33 Base$26 Bear
📬 FREE CMG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CMG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CMG SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 12.1% FCF Margin ($1.45B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.02 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (53.1) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$30.35-2.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$29.65-5.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$27.98+14% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$31.89+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CMG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, CMG faces multiple-compression risk if 25.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($32.83) or 200D SMA ($33.97) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($33.47) toward Bear Floor ($26.11).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CMG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CMG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

CMG Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (CMG)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on CMG. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CMG Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
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RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CMG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.28%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $28.73H $31.89L $28.73C $31.89VOL 42.48M
RES: $38.63SUP: $26.73SMA50: $32.83SMA200: $33.97
$39.91$36.50$33.08$29.67$26.25RES $38.63SUP $26.73$31.892026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CMG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
19.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CMG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CMG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CMG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CMG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #162 of 1011 ⚔️ YUM vs CMG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CMG vs. YUM, QSR, DRI, YUMC)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) ranks #162 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #55 by equity capitalization ($39.58B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, YUMC leads on earnings valuation at 16.7x trailing P/E, while YUM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 60.3% ROIC and 69.8% gross margin. YUM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with CMG at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CMG ACTIVE
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.
C+ 69/100 25.8x — 30.2% +1.95% $39.58B Benchmark Subject
YUM
Yum! Brands Inc.
B 74/100 27.1x 69.8% 60.3% +0.55% $42.18B /yum-vs-cmg →
QSR
Restaurant Brands International Inc.
D 50/100 30.9x — 12.6% -0.82% $33.18B /qsr-vs-cmg →
DRI
Darden Restaurants Inc.
C 64/100 20.7x 20.3% 19.5% -0.14% $24.95B /dri-vs-cmg →
YUMC
Yum China Holdings Inc.
B- 71/100 16.7x — 14.9% +1.28% $15.48B /yumc-vs-cmg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001058090

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) reported GAAP revenue of $11.93B (+5.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $11.31B , and +20.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.54B, operating cash flow of $2.11B, and free cash flow of $1.45B (-4.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, CMG closed FY2025 with $8.99B in total assets against $2.77B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.02, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $11.93B $1.54B $2.11B $1.45B $8.99B $2.77B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $11.31B $1.53B $2.11B $1.51B $9.20B $2.50B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $9.87B $1.23B $1.78B $1.34B $21.77B $5.09B

3. CMG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $31.89 (+1.95% 1D, market cap $39.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CMG ranks #162 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CMG compare to YUM and QSR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CMG carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.2%. By comparison, YUM (Yum! Brands Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 27.1x, ROIC 60.3%, cap $42.18B) and QSR (Restaurant Brands International Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 30.9x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $33.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, YUMC leads on earnings multiple (16.7x) while YUM leads on capital efficiency (60.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CMG?

Per CMG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001058090), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. generated $11.93B in revenue (+5.4% YoY), $1.54B in net income, and $1.45B in free cash flow against $8.99B in total assets and $2.77B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CMG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CMG last traded at $31.89 (+1.95% on volume of 24,391,133 shares), positioning the stock -2.86% below its 50-day simple moving average ($32.83) and -6.12% below its 200-day simple moving average ($33.97). Across its 52-week range of $27.31 to $41.42, CMG sits at the 32.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.0% ($29.02 to $34.76).

CMG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are CMG insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies CMG leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

CMG — Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:11:42Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CMG scores 69 out of 100, a C+ grade, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 18 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 30.2% and an FCF yield of 3.66%. Strong capital efficiency is the largest contributor to the score, but the 3.66% FCF yield means the market is pricing the cash stream at a relatively high multiple.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 10 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The moderate score indicates institutional support that is not conclusively directional.
  • Insider Conviction: 16 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. This is a relatively supportive reading.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 7 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects a beta of 0.99 and sector sensitivity. This is the weakest pillar and suggests the stock tracks broad market conditions closely without a distinct macro tailwind.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 18 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects an Altman Z-Score of 6.02, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.91. This is a strong balance-sheet read.

For a prospective investor, the composite points to a stock with high-quality fundamentals and a strong forensic profile, offset by a weak macro-regime fit and moderate institutional flow. Upside drivers in the data are the cash-generation efficiency and balance-sheet strength. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data: a P/E (TTM) of 25.8 and EV/EBITDA of 16.7 against a 3.66% FCF yield means much of the quality is already reflected in the price. The "Watch for Breakout" label implies the rating treats the stock as a candidate for re-rating only if flow and macro conditions improve, not as an immediate buy signal.

Snapshot

MetricValue
Price31.28
Market Cap$39.58B
P/E (TTM)25.8
Forward P/E24
EV/EBITDA16.7
EPS (TTM)1.21
Dividend Yield0%
Beta0.99
52-Wk Range$27.31 - $41.42
ROIC %30.2%

Business

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Restaurants industry, per the company profile. Per the profile, the company operates in the restaurant industry with a market capitalization of $39.6B. Not available in source data for product detail, customer segments, or specific revenue-generation model beyond the sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$11925.6M$1935.8M$1536.0MN/A$1447.6M$350.5M$2773.8M
FY 2024$11313.9M$1916.3M$1534.0MN/A$1511.5M$748.5M$2497.0M
FY 2023$9871.6M$1557.8M$1229.0MN/A$1339.3MN/A$5094.2M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $9871.6M in FY 2023 to $11925.6M in FY 2025, while net income moved from $1229.0M to $1536.0M. Per the market data, operating margin is 16.2%, net margin is 12.9%, and gross margin is reported as 0%, which should be treated as a data artifact rather than a substantive reading. Per the RQD rating and forensic data, the Altman Z-Score is 6.02, the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9, and ROIC is 30.2%. Debt declined from $5094.2M in FY 2023 to $2773.8M in FY 2025 while cash fell from $748.5M in FY 2024 to $350.5M in FY 2025. Per the RQD rating, Debt/Equity is 0.91.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the news feed, the most recent headline reports that CMG shares rose 7% after the CEO said same-store sales growth will continue (CNBC, tagged as a GREEN catalyst). Other items flagged the expansion of Chipotlane locations and a headline questioning whether the stock is fully priced following that expansion (Yahoo Finance, YELLOW). Several items reported the stock sliding or dipping more than the broader market on the same day (Investing.com and Yahoo Finance, YELLOW). A CNN quote-and-forecast item and a Yahoo Finance three-year valuation piece are also included as market-wire items. Per the news feed, the price change in market data is 8.88%, and volume is 42,481,889. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply_chain field is NONE, there are no butterfly links, and there are no proprietary signals. Risk watch items drawn from the headlines are the mixed same-day price reaction and the valuation question raised by the fully-priced headline.

Open Questions

  • What are the underlying SEC Form 4 and 13F transactions that drive the insider (16/20) and whale-flow (10/20) pillar scores?
  • What is the consensus analyst rating and price-target range, given that the analyst data section is empty?
  • What is the reported EPS for FY 2025, FY 2024, and FY 2023, since the financials list EPS as N/A for every period?
  • Why is the gross margin reported as 0%, and what is the correct gross margin figure?
  • What explains the cash decline from $748.5M in FY 2024 to $350.5M in FY 2025 alongside the debt increase from $2497.0M to $2773.8M?

CMG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CMG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CMG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $31.89?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CMG 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CMG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $33.78 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is CMG (C+ • RQD 69/100) a Buy at $31.28?

Welcome to the CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 69/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Restaurants. Bulls point to capital efficiency (30.2% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $23.46 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $31.28

Pump the brakes on CMG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on CMG, but look at what you are paying: 25.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $38.47 (+23.0%)
Spot @ $31.28

CMG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on CMG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Restaurants and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $31.28 (52-wk range $27.31 - $41.42), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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