CME Group Inc. (CME) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CME scores 72 out of 100, a letter grade of B, labeled "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward." The five pillars are:

• Fundamental Cash Engine: 13 / 20. The pillar cites ROIC of 3.5% and an FCF yield of 3.95%. Returns on invested capital are modest relative to the reported operating margin of 64.9%, which suggests a capital-heavy balance sheet, and the free cash flow yield is the primary cash-based valuation anchor.
• Whale 13F Flow: 16 / 20. The pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The underlying holder records are not provided in the source data, so the score cannot be traced to specific filers.
• Insider Conviction: 14 / 20. The pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. No individual transactions are provided in the source data.
• Macro Regime Fit: 17 / 20. The pillar cites a beta of 1.01, which indicates market-level sensitivity, and the highest pillar score suggests the stock's sensitivity profile is viewed favorably under the rating's framework.
• Forensic Balance Sheet: 12 / 20. The pillar cites an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5. The strong Piotroski reading is offset by a lower Altman reading and a balance sheet that carries substantial reported debt.

For a prospective investor, the rating points to a stock with strong cash-generation characteristics and favorable macro fit, tempered by modest ROIC and a balance sheet scored lower than the other pillars. The reported P/E (TTM) of 26.1 and EV/EBITDA of 40.2 indicate that valuation is not low on these measures, so the investment case depends on whether the cash flow and macro-fit strengths continue. The rating is a framework output, not a recommendation.

CME Group Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating in the Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service industry. The profile identifies the company by sector, industry, and exchange, with a market capitalization of $106.1B. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, CME's regulated crypto futures clearing is referenced as a key activity, with record regulated crypto futures open interest cited from its Form 10-K. Specific product lines, customer segments, and revenue mix are not available in source data.

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $5578.9M in FY 2023 to $6520.6M in FY 2025, and net income rose from $3226.0M to $4072.2M over the same span. Reported operating margin is 64.9% and net margin is 62.5% per the market data. ROIC is 3.5%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Reported debt rose from $13654.8M in FY 2023 to $76363.2M in FY 2025, a figure the Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5 does not reconcile against in the provided data.

Per the recent news feed, six items are tagged to CME:

• Catalyst: A Yahoo Finance item titled "CME Group (CME) Stock Fair Value Edges Higher As Analysts Weigh Growth And Competition" is tagged GREEN and CATALYST.
• Risk Watch: A CME Group report titled "Evaluating Market Quality in Single Stock Futures During Risk Events" is tagged RED and RISK WATCH.
• Market Wire (YELLOW): Four items are tagged YELLOW and MARKET WIRE, covering E-mini S&P 500 Futures, a Yahoo Finance valuation piece titled "CME Group (CME) Stock Seems Overvalued After Its 65% Five Year Run," a general stock-quote page, and E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures.

The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph contains one link: CME to IBIT under the theme "Bitcoin Spot ETFs, Custody, Miners & High-Compute Power," typed as a bottleneck beneficiary relationship with a confirmed filing evidence tier and a tailwind direction. The exposure estimate is undisclosed. The mechanism is delta-neutral cash-and-carry basis trading, in which hedge funds buy spot IBIT shares while shorting CME Bitcoin and Micro Bitcoin futures. The graph flags that basis compression toward Fed Funds or T-bill yields could trigger unwinds, and that competing onshore perpetual-style crypto futures venues could fragment CME's clearing position. Proprietary signals are empty in the source data.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain field is "NONE," so upstream and downstream supplier and customer dependencies are not available in source data. The one documented ripple runs from CME's crypto futures clearing to IBIT, through basis arbitrage flows. A prospective investor should watch the monthly Cryptocurrency ADV and the CFTC Commitment of Traders Basis Report, which the graph names as the next catalysts. Basis compression toward short-term rate yields is the stated unwind trigger, meaning the tailwind is sensitive to rate and contango conditions. The competing-venue risk is the second-order threat to the clearing franchise. Sector correlations beyond the Financials classification are not available in source data.

Analyst data is "NONE." Consensus rating, price targets, and analyst count are not available in source data. Holders data is "NONE." SEC Form 4 insider trades, 13F institutional positions, and Congressional trades are not available in source data, although the RQD rating references insider and whale-flow pillar scores.

• What drives the gap between reported debt rising from $13654.8M (FY 2023) to $76363.2M (FY 2025) and the Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5?
• Why is EPS reported as N/A across all three periods when net income is available?
• What is the exposure estimate for the IBIT basis-trade link, given it is listed as undisclosed?
• Which institutional holders and insiders underlie the 13F and Form 4 pillar scores?
• Why is gross margin reported as 0% when operating margin is 64.9%?