GGB (60) TX (54) SIM (46) CRS (62) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$63.98 -2.62% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $63.56

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $7.23B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CMC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CMC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Commercial Metals Company (NYSE: CMC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $63.98 (-2.62% 1D, market cap $7.23B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, CMC ranks #113 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CMC compare to GGB and TX in the Materials sector?

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Within the Materials sector (Steel/Iron Ore), CMC carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 85.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.5%. By comparison, GGB (Gerdau S.A.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $9.38B) and TX (Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. (each representing ten shares USD1.00 par value)) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $10.61B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GGB leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while CRS leads on capital efficiency (16.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CMC?

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Per CMC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-08-31, CIK 0000022444), Commercial Metals Company generated $0 in revenue, $84.7M in net income, and $312.2M in free cash flow against $9.24B in total assets and $2.22B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $63.56 (-0.66%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 7.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CMC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CMC SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7.8% FCF Margin ($312.2M FCF) & 0% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.40 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (54.6) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$64.77-0.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$64.65-1.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$63.61+0.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$63.98-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CMC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CMC currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($65.41) and Max Pain ($67.18) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $89.11.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CMC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CMC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

54.630 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)

2.40>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE28% OF RANGE

L: $56$63.98H: $85

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on CMC

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

1.5% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 4.32% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 2.40 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (40)

18/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like CMC

✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Priced at 85x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CMC)

✓Walkthrough of CMC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CMC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.59%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $64.16H $65.70L $63.98C $63.98VOL 1.05M

RES: $68.39SUP: $57.43SMA50: $65.41SMA200: $69.05

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CMC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CMC Butterfly Map → + Track CMC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. 0.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CMC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CMC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CMC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CMC)

Materials Rank #113 of 270 ⚔️ GGB vs CMC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (CMC vs. GGB, TX, SIM, CRS)

Industry: Steel/Iron Ore (26 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Commercial Metals Company (CMC) ranks #113 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #57 by equity capitalization ($7.23B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GGB leads on earnings valuation at 32.8x trailing P/E, while CRS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.9% ROIC and 26.7% gross margin. CRS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with CMC at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CMC ACTIVE Commercial Metals Company	D	48/100	85.3x	—	1.5%	-2.62%	$7.23B	Benchmark Subject
GGB Gerdau S.A.	C-	60/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-1.69%	$9.38B	/ggb-vs-cmc →
TX Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. (each representing ten shares USD1.00 par value)	D+	54/100	—	—	—	-2.39%	$10.61B	/tx-vs-cmc →
SIM Grupo Simec S.A.B. de C.V.	D	46/100	—	—	—	+3.85%	$4.10B	/sim-vs-cmc →
CRS Carpenter Technology Corporation	C	62/100	39.4x	26.7%	16.9%	-5.24%	$14.80B	/crs-vs-cmc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-08-31 • CIK 0000022444

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-08-31), Commercial Metals Company (CMC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $84.7M, operating cash flow of $715.1M, and free cash flow of $312.2M (-45.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, CMC closed FY2025 with $9.24B in total assets against $2.22B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.40, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-08-31	$0	$84.7M	$715.1M	$312.2M	$9.24B	$2.22B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-08-31	$0	$485.5M	$899.7M	$575.4M	$6.77B	$1.24B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-08-31	$0	$859.8M	$1.34B	$1.34B	$3.97B	$929.9M

3. CMC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CMC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does CMC compare to GGB and TX in the Materials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CMC?

Where is CMC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CMC last traded at $63.98 (-2.62% on volume of 834,182 shares), positioning the stock -2.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($65.41) and -7.34% below its 200-day simple moving average ($69.05). Across its 52-week range of $55.97 to $84.87, CMC sits at the 27.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($59.37 to $68.59).

CMC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell CMC stock right now?

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 48/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 85x P/E (2% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is CMC's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

CMC's 12-month base price target is $61.1 (range $47.66 to $89.11), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: CMC RQD Cockpit CMC 12M Forecast CMC Earnings & Move CMC Dividends & DRIP CMC Insiders & 13F CMC Whale Options CMC Profit Sankey CMC News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

CMC — Commercial Metals Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:18:23Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CMC scores 48 out of 100, a letter grade of D, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The score is the sum of five pillars, each weighted out of 20. The fundamental cash engine pillar scores 12/20, anchored by ROIC of 1.5% and an FCF yield of 4.32%; for a prospective investor, the low ROIC is the central tension, because it indicates limited return on invested capital even as the free-cash-flow yield looks respectable. The whale/13F flow pillar scores 10/20 for institutional accumulation and options positioning, a middling reading that suggests neither strong sponsorship nor clear distribution. The insider conviction pillar scores 8/20 based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, signaling weak insider signal support. The macro regime fit pillar scores 6/20 with a beta of 0.95 and sector sensitivity, the lowest pillar, implying the stock's behavior is not strongly favored by the current regime as captured in the rating. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 12/20, reflecting an Altman Z of 2.4, a Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.48, which points to a balance sheet that is serviceable rather than a source of strength. Taken together, the valuation is demanding: per the market data, P/E (TTM) is 85.3 and EV/EBITDA is 18.4, so an investor is paying a high multiple for modest current profitability. Upside drivers would need to come from margin recovery and improved returns on capital; the rating indicates the present evidence does not yet demonstrate that.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
65.7	$7.23B	85.3	79.3	18.4	0.77	1.13%	0.95	$55.97 - $84.87	1.5%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Q4 earnings beat (CATALYST, GREEN): A Yahoo Finance headline reports that Q4 earnings and revenues beat estimates.
Q4 revenue vs. estimate (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A marketscreener.com flash reports Q4 revenue of $2.66B against a FactSet estimate of $2.56B.
Price target raise (CATALYST, GREEN): A TradingView item reports a 12-month price target raised to $78.3, implying 20% upside.
Valuation skepticism (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A Seeking Alpha piece is titled "Still Not Attractive (But Getting Better)."
Analyst picks and market moves (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A Globe and Mail item lists CMC among analysts' top industrial goods picks, and a Benzinga item covers the stock's Thursday move.

Per the butterfly supply-chain graph, the supply chain is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Watch items are the gap between the earnings beat headlines and the declining reported operating and net income in the SEC financials, and the rise in reported debt.

Open Questions

What is the revenue figure for each reported period? The financial table lists $0.0M for all three years.
What are the cash balances and EPS for each fiscal year, which are listed as N/A?
What drove the decline in operating and net income from FY 2023 to FY 2025 while debt increased?
What is the composition of institutional, insider, and Congressional holdings and activity?
What are the upstream and downstream supply-chain dependencies, given the graph reports NONE?

CMC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Commercial Metals Company (CMC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CMC Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 7h ago

Commercial Metals (CMC) Q4 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates

Yahoo Finance report covering Commercial Metals Company (CMC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 10h ago

Commercial Metals Company: Still Not Attractive (But Getting Better) (NYSE:CMC)

Seeking Alpha report covering Commercial Metals Company (CMC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST TradingView • 13h ago

Commercial Metals Company Stock 12‑Month Price Target Raised to $78.3, Implies 20% Upside

TradingView report covering Commercial Metals Company (CMC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 16h ago

Analysts’ Top Industrial Goods Picks: Commercial Metals Company (CMC), Werner Enterprises (WERN)

The Globe and Mail report covering Commercial Metals Company (CMC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE marketscreener.com • 19h ago

Earnings Flash (CMC) Commercial Metals Company Reports Q4 Revenue $2.66B, vs. FactSet Est of $2.56B

marketscreener.com report covering Commercial Metals Company (CMC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 22h ago

What's Going On With Commercial Metals Stock Thursday? - Commercial Metals (NYSE:CMC)

Benzinga report covering Commercial Metals Company (CMC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

CMC shares rise 4% on fourth quarter earnings beat

Yahoo Finance report covering Commercial Metals Company (CMC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH TradingView • 1d ago

Commercial Metals Company Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $78.56, Implies 20% Upside

TradingView report covering Commercial Metals Company (CMC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CMC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $63.98?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CMC 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $70.96 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is CMC (D • RQD 48/100) a Buy at $65.70?

Welcome to the CMC (Commercial Metals Company) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 48/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Steel/Iron Ore. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (85.3x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $50.59 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $65.70

Pump the brakes on CMC — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on CMC, but look at what you are paying: 85.3x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Commercial Metals Company expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $76.21 (+16.0%)

Spot @ $65.70

CMC cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on CMC, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Steel/Iron Ore and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $65.70 (52-wk range $55.97 - $84.87), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.