Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / CHDN / forecast

MTN (59) SGHC (47) MSGK (67) ENHA (33) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$94.83 +4.03% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $95.34

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $6.25B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CHDN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CHDN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-02, Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ: CHDN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $94.83 (+4.03% 1D, market cap $6.25B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CHDN ranks #457 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CHDN compare to MTN and SGHC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), CHDN carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.2%. By comparison, MTN (Vail Resorts Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 18.5x, ROIC 22.1%, cap $5.51B) and SGHC (Super Group (SGHC) Limited) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.45B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CHDN leads on earnings multiple (16.3x) while MTN leads on capital efficiency (22.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHDN?

▼

Per CHDN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000020212), Churchill Downs Incorporated generated $2.93B in revenue (+7.0% YoY), $383.0M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $7.49B in total assets and $5.07B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $95.34 (+0.54%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 10.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CHDN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CHDN SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.4% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (63.9) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$81.06+2.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$83.03-1.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$81.52+16.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$94.83-0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CHDN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, CHDN faces multiple-compression risk if 16.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($82.87) or 200D SMA ($88.00) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($93.55) toward Bear Floor ($72.97).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CHDN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CHDN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CHDN Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $94.83: 105.5 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $72.97

$7,695

$-2,305 (-23.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $93.55

$9,865

$-135 (-1.3%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $124.27

$13,105

+$3,105 (+31.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$97	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$117	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$83	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CHDN)

✓Walkthrough of CHDN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CHDN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.41%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $81.95H $94.83L $81.95C $94.83VOL 2.16M

RES: $94.91SUP: $71.49SMA50: $82.87SMA200: $88.00

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CHDN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CHDN Butterfly Map → + Track CHDN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

9.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CHDN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CHDN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CHDN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CHDN)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #457 of 1011 ⚔️ MTN vs CHDN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CHDN vs. MTN, SGHC, MSGK, ENHA)

Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) ranks #457 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #233 by equity capitalization ($6.25B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CHDN leads on earnings valuation at 16.3x trailing P/E, while MTN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.1% ROIC and — gross margin. MSGK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with CHDN at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CHDN ACTIVE Churchill Downs Incorporated	D+	55/100	16.3x	—	9.2%	+4.03%	$6.25B	Benchmark Subject
MTN Vail Resorts Inc.	C-	59/100	18.5x	—	22.1%	-1.75%	$5.51B	/mtn-vs-chdn →
SGHC Super Group (SGHC) Limited	D	47/100	—	—	—	-0.28%	$5.45B	/sghc-vs-chdn →
MSGK MSG Knickerbockers Corp.	C+	67/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+0.88%	$7.48B	/msgk-vs-chdn →
ENHA Enhanced Group Inc. (Class A)	E	33/100	—	—	-8.3%	-26.96%	$5.11B	/enha-vs-chdn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000020212

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) reported GAAP revenue of $2.93B (+7.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.73B , and +18.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $383.0M, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, CHDN closed FY2025 with $7.49B in total assets against $5.07B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.42, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.93B	$383.0M	—	—	$7.49B	$5.07B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.73B	$426.8M	—	—	$7.28B	$4.84B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.46B	$417.3M	—	—	$3.44B	$804.2M

3. CHDN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CHDN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does CHDN compare to MTN and SGHC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHDN?

Where is CHDN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CHDN last traded at $94.83 (+4.03% on volume of 1,887,847 shares), positioning the stock +14.43% above its 50-day simple moving average ($82.87) and +7.76% above its 200-day simple moving average ($88.00). Across its 52-week range of $73.09 to $118.35, CHDN sits at the 48.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.4% ($85.92 to $103.74).

CHDN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is CHDN's 12-month stock price target?

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $93.55 (-1.3% from $94.83), with a bull-case target of $124.27 and a bear-case floor of $72.97.

Is CHDN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates CHDN D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 55/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: CHDN RQD Cockpit CHDN 12M Forecast CHDN Earnings & Move CHDN Dividends & DRIP CHDN Insiders & 13F CHDN Whale Options CHDN Profit Sankey CHDN News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 55/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

CHDN — Churchill Downs Incorporated: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:19:15Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CHDN scores 55 out of 100, a letter grade of D+, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 11 out of 20 (ROIC 9.2%; FCF yield 4.88%); Whale 13F Flow at 13 out of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 15 out of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 8 out of 20 (Beta 0.93; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 8 out of 20 (Altman Z 1.42; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 5.02).

For a prospective investor, the strongest pillar is insider and institutional flow, while the weakest pillars are the balance sheet and macro fit. The verdict reflects that the cash-generation and forensic signals are modest, and leverage is high relative to the other metrics reported. Upside drivers cited in the source data include the recent buyback announcement and recent large share purchases reported in the news wire, while valuation tradeoffs are reflected in a P/E (TTM) of 16.3 and an EV/EBITDA of 14. This section is educational and does not constitute personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
91.16	$6.25B	16.3	15.2	14	5.59	0.49%	0.93	$73.09 - $118.35	9.2%

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$2925.9M	$683.8M	$383.0M	N/A	N/A	$201.0M	$5067.0M
FY 2024	$2734.3M	$709.0M	$426.8M	N/A	N/A	$175.5M	$4844.1M
FY 2023	$2461.7M	$564.0M	$417.3M	N/A	N/A	N/A	$804.2M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $2461.7M in FY 2023 to $2925.9M in FY 2025, while net income declined from $426.8M in FY 2024 to $383.0M in FY 2025. Debt grew from $804.2M in FY 2023 to $5067.0M in FY 2025. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 9.2%, the Altman Z-Score is 1.42, the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 5.02. Gross margin is reported as 0% in the market data, and the source data does not clarify this figure further.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news wire, the principal catalysts are: a report that billionaire Mike Repole bought 1 million shares (headline "Repole buys 1 million shares of Churchill Downs Inc."); a report that the stock rose 6% on a 1.4% stake purchase; and a marketscreener headline announcing an equity buyback of $750 million worth of shares, which is the only item flagged GREEN in the feed. The remaining items are flagged YELLOW. Risk watch items are not specified in the source data. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

What are the company's specific products, customers, and revenue mix, given the profile provides only sector and industry classification?
What are the FCF and EPS figures for FY 2023 through FY 2025, which are reported as N/A?
What drove the increase in debt from $804.2M in FY 2023 to $5067.0M in FY 2025, and what is the repayment schedule?
What is the terms and timing of the reported $750 million buyback, and how it is funded given the balance sheet metrics?
Why is gross margin reported as 0%, and how should that figure be interpreted?

CHDN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CHDN Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 7h ago

Repole buys 1.4% Churchill Downs stake, driving stock up 6% in Friday trade

Yahoo Finance report covering Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Horse Racing Nation • 10h ago

Repole buys 1 million shares of Churchill Downs Inc.

Horse Racing Nation report covering Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 13h ago

A well-known beverage entrepreneur makes a big bet on Churchill Downs (CHDN:NASDAQ)

Seeking Alpha report covering Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE WDRB • 16h ago

CRAWFORD | Billionaire Mike Repole says he’s bought 1 million shares of Churchill Downs, wants to shake up horse racing

WDRB report covering Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 19h ago

Churchill Downs, Incorporated Estimates – NASDAQ:CHDN

TradingView report covering Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST www.marketscreener.com • 22h ago

Churchill Downs Incorporated announces an Equity Buyback for $750 million worth of its shares.

www.marketscreener.com report covering Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Mike Repole Purchases 1 Million Shares Of Churchill Downs Stock

Yahoo Finance report covering Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Churchill Downs, Incorporated (NASDAQ:CHDN) Stock Rated "Moderate Buy" by Sell-Side Analysts

MarketBeat report covering Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CHDN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $94.83?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CHDN 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $98.45 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is CHDN (D+ • RQD 55/100) a Buy at $91.16?

Welcome to the CHDN (Churchill Downs Incorporated) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 55/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $69.28 (-24.0%)

Spot @ $91.16

Pump the brakes on CHDN — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on CHDN, but look at what you are paying: 16.3x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Churchill Downs Incorporated expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $111.22 (+22.0%)

Spot @ $91.16

CHDN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on CHDN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $91.16 (52-wk range $73.09 - $118.35), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.