Jefferies analyst Lisa Liao upgrades Chagee Holdings (NASDAQ:CHA) from Hold to Buy and raises the price target from $11.8 to $14.9.
Why CHA Stock advanced +0.25% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 76/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
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Is CHA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: CHA) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $12.05 (+0.25% 1D, market cap $2.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CHA ranks #56 in composite RQD confidence.
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How does CHA compare to SHAK and CBRL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CHA carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, SHAK (Shake Shack Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $3.02B) and CBRL (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 34.9x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while CHA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHA?
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Per CHA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002013649), Chagee Holdings Limited generated $1.85B in revenue, $167.5M in net income, and $175.5M in free cash flow against $1.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.5% FCF Margin ($175.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CHA Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 76/100 (B+) score, CHA faces multiple-compression risk if 13.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.82) or 200D SMA ($11.13) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($13.03) toward Bear Floor ($9.88).
Why CHA Stock advanced +0.25% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) advanced +0.25% to $12.05, trading at 41% of its 52-week range ($8.98 – $16.56). High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 41% of its 52-week range ($8.98 – $16.56) with RSI-14 at 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.8% around $12.05 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B+ (Buy) backed by 52% gross margin and $175.5M annual free cash flow.
KDP's planned 2027 split aims to unlock long-term value through focused growth, debt reduction and $400 million in coffee cost synergies.
PRMB is driving retail growth through rising purified water sales, premium brand gains and distribution expansion, while targeting underpenetrated cold consumption opportunities.
PRMB's regional spring water sales rise 4.1% as broad retail growth, share gains and brand building support expansion opportunities.
PRMB's premium portfolio increases 30.5% as Saratoga and Mountain Valley gain share, with distribution and capacity supporting further growth.
Chagee Holdings (NasdaqGS:CHA) has released two new seasonal drinks, including the Golden Chamomile fruit chamomile collection. The seasonal lineup now features a caffeine free chamomile series aimed at consumers seeking
The average of price targets set by Wall Street analysts indicates a potential upside of 28.2% in Chagee Holdings Limited - Sponsored ADR (CHA). While the effectiveness of this highly sought-after metric is questionable,
Good things could be on the horizon when a stock experiences a golden cross event. How should investors react?
On August 28, Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:CHA) reported second-quarter results that read like two different companies stitched together. At home in Greater China, gross merchandise value slipped and franchised teahou
Moby summary of Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares's Q2 2026 earnings call
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CHA Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
CHA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CHA today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CHA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CHA)
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CHA vs. SHAK, CBRL, ARCO, WEN)
Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) ranks #56 by composite RQD confidence (76/100, grade B+) and #399 by equity capitalization ($2.30B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARCO leads on earnings valuation at 6.9x trailing P/E, while CHA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CHA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 76/100 (B+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA
ACTIVE
Chagee Holdings Limited | B+ | 76/100 | 13.7x | — | 85.0% | +0.25% | $2.30B | Benchmark Subject |
| SHAK Shake Shack Inc. | D | 48/100 | 60.7x | — | 6.8% | -0.04% | $3.02B | /shak-vs-cha → |
| CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc | B- | 70/100 | 34.9x | 69.0% | 5.4% | -3.31% | $1.57B | /cbrl-vs-cha → |
| ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) | D | 48/100 | 6.9x | 96.0% | 18.9% | -2.46% | $1.42B | /arco-vs-cha → |
| WEN Wendy's Company | D | 49/100 | 8.3x | 63.6% | 10.7% | +0.63% | $1.37B | /wen-vs-cha → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002013649In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) reported GAAP revenue of $1.85B , GAAP net income of $167.5M, operating cash flow of $235.1M, and free cash flow of $175.5M . On the balance sheet, CHA closed FY2025 with $1.64B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.09, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.85B | $167.5M | $235.1M | $175.5M | $1.64B | — |
3. CHA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CHA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: CHA) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $12.05 (+0.25% 1D, market cap $2.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CHA ranks #56 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CHA compare to SHAK and CBRL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CHA carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, SHAK (Shake Shack Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $3.02B) and CBRL (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 34.9x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while CHA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHA?
Per CHA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002013649), Chagee Holdings Limited generated $1.85B in revenue, $167.5M in net income, and $175.5M in free cash flow against $1.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CHA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CHA last traded at $12.05 (+0.25% on volume of 922,688 shares), positioning the stock +1.95% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.82) and +8.27% above its 200-day simple moving average ($11.13). Across its 52-week range of $8.98 to $16.56, CHA sits at the 40.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.8% ($11.11 to $12.99).
CHA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is CHA stock moving today?
Why CHA Stock advanced +0.25% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
CHA — Chagee Holdings Limited: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Per the Roarable RQD rating, CHA scores 75 out of 100 (letter grade B; verdict "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward"). The five pillars are:
- Fundamental Cash Engine: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this is supported by ROIC of 85% and an FCF yield of 7.65%. This is the strongest pillar and the main upside driver in the rating.
- Whale 13F Flow: 9 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, institutional accumulation and options positioning are the weakest-scoring area, indicating less visible large-holder support than the cash-flow pillar.
- Insider Conviction: 17 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scores well, which signals relatively strong insider-side conviction.
- Macro Regime Fit: 15 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and sector sensitivity is noted; this suggests market-like exposure to broad moves.
- Forensic Balance Sheet: 16 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 5.09, Piotroski F is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5.
For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating points to a cash-generation story and a balance sheet that scores well on forensic measures, offset by thinner institutional support. Valuation tradeoffs visible in the market data include a P/E (TTM) of 13.7 and an EV/EBITDA of 5. The rating is an educational summary of the source data, not personalized financial advice.
Snapshot
Business
Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) is listed on NASDAQ and classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Restaurants industry. Per the profile, it has a market capitalization of $2.3B. Not available in source data: product lines, customer base, and specific revenue-generation mechanics.
Financial Trend
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 (filed 2025-12-31) | $1845.7M | $192.7M | $167.5M | N/A | $175.5M | $1087.8M | N/A |
Per the market data, operating margin is 10.4%, net margin is 9.1%, and gross margin is reported as 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 85%, Altman Z is 5.09, Piotroski F is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5, indicating a forensically sound balance sheet posture on these measures. Debt for FY 2025 is not available in source data.
Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples
Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies are not available in source data.
Open Questions
- What drives the FY 2025 revenue and operating income, and what is the company's revenue mix?
- What is FY 2025 total debt and EPS, given both are reported as N/A?
- Who are the institutional and insider holders, and what are their recent positions?
- What catalysts or risks are currently in play, given the news section is empty?
- Why is the gross margin reported as 0% and how does it reconcile with operating and net margins?
CHA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Jefferies analyst Lisa Liao upgrades Chagee Holdings (NASDAQ:CHA) from Hold to Buy and raises the price target from $11.8 to $14.9.
KDP's planned 2027 split aims to unlock long-term value through focused growth, debt reduction and $400 million in coffee cost synergies.
PRMB is driving retail growth through rising purified water sales, premium brand gains and distribution expansion, while targeting underpenetrated cold consumption opportunities.
PRMB's regional spring water sales rise 4.1% as broad retail growth, share gains and brand building support expansion opportunities.
PRMB's premium portfolio increases 30.5% as Saratoga and Mountain Valley gain share, with distribution and capacity supporting further growth.
Chagee Holdings (NasdaqGS:CHA) has released two new seasonal drinks, including the Golden Chamomile fruit chamomile collection. The seasonal lineup now features a caffeine free chamomile series aimed at consumers seeking
The average of price targets set by Wall Street analysts indicates a potential upside of 28.2% in Chagee Holdings Limited - Sponsored ADR (CHA). While the effectiveness of this highly sought-after metric is questionable,
Good things could be on the horizon when a stock experiences a golden cross event. How should investors react?
CHA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.05?
🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is CHA (B • RQD 75/100) a Buy at $12.02?
Welcome to the CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 75/100 (Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward) in Restaurants. Bulls point to capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Pump the brakes on CHA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on CHA, but look at what you are paying: 13.7x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Chagee Holdings Limited expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
CHA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on CHA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Restaurants and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $12.02 (52-wk range $8.98 - $16.56), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.