Cognex Corporation (CGNX) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$56.15 -4.78% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $55.56

Cognex Corporation (CGNX) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $9.92B
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As of 2026-11-02, Cognex Corporation (NASDAQ: CGNX) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $56.15 (-4.78% 1D, market cap $9.92B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, CGNX ranks #81 in composite RQD confidence.

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🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CGNX compare to OC and PNR in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), CGNX carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 86.7x, gross margin of 66.9%, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, OC (Owens Corning Inc) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.5%, cap $9.61B) and PNR (Pentair plc. Ordinary Share) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 12.5%, cap $10.51B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PNR leads on earnings multiple (16.1x) while PNR leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CGNX?
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Per CGNX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000851205), Cognex Corporation generated $994.4M in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $114.4M in net income, and $236.8M in free cash flow against $2.02B in total assets and $236.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (67% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $55.56 (-1.05%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 23.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510066
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B+
Cash (16)Whales (10)SEC (18)Macro (13)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target
$77 Bull$58 Base$45 Bear
📬 FREE CGNX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CGNX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CGNX SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 12.69 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 23.8% FCF Margin ($236.8M FCF) & 66.9% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
74
Grade B+$60.01-5.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
71
Grade B$56.77+2.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
69
Grade B-$58.22-3.6% Next Q
Current
66
Grade C+$56.15+1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B+ (74) → C+ (66)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CGNX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, CGNX faces multiple-compression risk if 86.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 87x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($59.85) or 200D SMA ($58.07) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($58.17) toward Bear Floor ($45.37).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CGNX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CGNX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CGNX Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $56.15: 178.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $45.37
$8,080
$-1,920 (-19.2%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $58.17
$10,360
+$360 (+3.6%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $76.52
$13,628
+$3,628 (+36.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$6074%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$7269%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$5258%C
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CGNX Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
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CGNX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.27%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $58.43H $58.97L $56.15C $56.15VOL 1.54M
RES: $63.78SUP: $51.33SMA50: $59.85SMA200: $58.07
$74.88$66.60$58.32$50.04$41.76RES $63.78SUP $51.33$56.152026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CGNX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CGNX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CGNX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CGNX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CGNX)

Industrials Rank #81 of 485 ⚔️ OC vs CGNX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (CGNX vs. OC, PNR, DRS, ONTO)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Cognex Corporation (CGNX) ranks #81 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #102 by equity capitalization ($9.92B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PNR leads on earnings valuation at 16.1x trailing P/E, while PNR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and 40.5% gross margin. PNR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with CGNX at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CGNX ACTIVE
Cognex Corporation
C+ 66/100 86.7x 66.9% 8.9% -4.78% $9.92B Benchmark Subject
OC
Owens Corning Inc
D+ 52/100 — 28.1% 3.5% -0.37% $9.61B /oc-vs-cgnx →
PNR
Pentair plc. Ordinary Share
C+ 69/100 16.1x 40.5% 12.5% +0.64% $10.51B /pnr-vs-cgnx →
DRS
Leonardo DRS Inc.
C 63/100 38.1x 23.8% 9.2% -4.94% $10.58B /drs-vs-cgnx →
ONTO
Onto Innovation Inc.
C- 59/100 — 49.7% 5.6% -9.16% $10.89B /onto-vs-cgnx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000851205

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Cognex Corporation (CGNX) reported GAAP revenue of $994.4M (+8.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $914.5M , and +18.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $114.4M, operating cash flow of $245.5M, and free cash flow of $236.8M (+76.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, CGNX closed FY2025 with $2.02B in total assets against $236.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 12.69, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $994.4M $114.4M $245.5M $236.8M $2.02B $236.1M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $914.5M $106.2M $149.1M $134.0M $1.99B $213.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $837.5M $113.2M $112.9M $75.2M $5.46B $1.28B

3. CGNX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CGNX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Cognex Corporation (NASDAQ: CGNX) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $56.15 (-4.78% 1D, market cap $9.92B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, CGNX ranks #81 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CGNX compare to OC and PNR in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), CGNX carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 86.7x, gross margin of 66.9%, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, OC (Owens Corning Inc) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.5%, cap $9.61B) and PNR (Pentair plc. Ordinary Share) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 12.5%, cap $10.51B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PNR leads on earnings multiple (16.1x) while PNR leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CGNX?

Per CGNX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000851205), Cognex Corporation generated $994.4M in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $114.4M in net income, and $236.8M in free cash flow against $2.02B in total assets and $236.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (67% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CGNX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CGNX last traded at $56.15 (-4.78% on volume of 1,523,569 shares), positioning the stock -6.18% below its 50-day simple moving average ($59.85) and -3.31% below its 200-day simple moving average ($58.07). Across its 52-week range of $34.60 to $72.88, CGNX sits at the 56.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.4% ($51.43 to $60.87).

CGNX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is CGNX's 12-month stock price target?

Cognex Corporation (CGNX) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $58.17 (+3.6% from $56.15), with a bull-case target of $76.52 and a bear-case floor of $45.37.

Is CGNX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates CGNX C+ (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 66/100.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 66/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

CGNX — Cognex Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:16:44Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CGNX scores 66 out of 100 (letter grade C+; verdict: Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout). The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 16 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects an ROIC of 8.9% and an FCF yield of 2.39%. Investor implication: the business earns a modest return on invested capital and converts a small fraction of its market value into free cash flow, so the cash engine is solid but not a strong valuation support at current prices.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning. Investor implication: institutional signal is mid-range, which means smart-money conviction is not a clear tailwind today.
  • Insider Conviction: 9 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Investor implication: insider and congressional flow is weak in the rating, offering limited evidence of insiders signaling strong confidence.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 13 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 0.88 and the pillar reflects sector sensitivity. Investor implication: the stock has below-market beta, which dampens market-wide volatility exposure but does not guarantee outperformance in a rotation.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 12.69, the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.15. Investor implication: this is the strongest pillar, indicating low balance-sheet risk and strong financial-health screens.

Valuation tradeoff: per the Snapshot market data, P/E (TTM) is 86.7 and EV/EBITDA is 58.1. A prospective investor should recognize that high multiples leave limited room for execution misses even as the balance sheet screens cleanly. Upside drivers would be earnings growth that compresses these multiples; the verdict's "Watch for Breakout" framing suggests the rating sees a potential move but has not confirmed one.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
58.97$9.92B86.780.658.10.680.55%0.88$34.6 - $72.888.9%

Business

Cognex Corporation (CGNX) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, operating within the Industrial Machinery/Components industry, per the Profile. The Profile identifies the company as having a market capitalization of $9.9B. The source data does not describe its specific products, customer base, or revenue-model details beyond the sector and industry classification. Gross margin is 66.9% per the Market Data section, indicating a high-margin product mix, though the source does not specify which products drive this.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$994.4M$162.6M$114.4MN/A$236.8M$262.9M$236.1M
FY 2024$914.5M$115.1M$106.2MN/A$134.0M$186.1M$213.9M
FY 2023$837.5M$130.7M$113.2MN/A$75.2MN/A$1276.7M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $837.5M (FY 2023) to $994.4M (FY 2025), and operating income rose from $130.7M to $162.6M over the same span. Per the Market Data section, operating margin is 16.3% and net margin is 11.5%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 8.9%, the Altman Z-Score is 12.69, and the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9. Per the SEC financials, debt fell from $1276.7M (FY 2023) to $236.1M (FY 2025) while cash rose to $262.9M, and the Roarable RQD rating records Debt/Equity at 0.15.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the News Wire, the headlines are:

  • A Seeking Alpha piece titled "Jumping On The Robotics Train: Initiating Buy On Cognex (NASDAQ:CGNX)" carries a GREEN light and CATALYST impact label, the only positive-tagged item.
  • A headline "Why Cognex (CGNX) Stock Is Falling Today" carries a RED light and RISK WATCH label.
  • A TradingKey item reports the stock "Moved Down by 7.19% on Oct 7" (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • Other items (a Yahoo Finance UK wire, a TradingView estimates page, and a Benzinga CNBC mention) are tagged YELLOW, MARKET WIRE, with generic descriptions that do not add specific fundamental detail.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as "NONE," with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. The net read is one catalyst-tagged item against one explicit risk-watch item, with the remainder being neutral market coverage.

Open Questions

  • Which specific products and end markets drive the 66.9% gross margin and FY 2025 revenue of $994.4M, and how much is exposed to robotics or automation demand referenced in the catalyst headlines?
  • What explains the drop from a $1276.7M debt balance in FY 2023 to $236.1M in FY 2025, and was it repaid, refinanced, or reclassified?
  • Why is EPS reported as N/A in every period while EPS (TTM) is 0.68, and how does that reconcile with net income of $114.4M in FY 2025?
  • What is the cause of the stock's single-day drop reported in the news wire, and does the "Why Cognex (CGNX) Stock Is Falling Today" item relate to fundamentals or sentiment?
  • What is the FY 2025 cash balance trajectory and capital-allocation plan given the cash figure is absent for FY 2023?

CGNX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Cognex Corporation (CGNX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CGNX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CGNX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $56.15?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CGNX 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CGNX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $63.69 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is CGNX (C+ • RQD 66/100) a Buy at $58.97?

Welcome to the CGNX (Cognex Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 66/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Industrial Machinery/Components. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (86.7x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $46.00 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $58.97

Pump the brakes on CGNX — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on CGNX, but look at what you are paying: 86.7x trailing P/E with 66.9% gross margins. Unless Cognex Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $73.71 (+25.0%)
Spot @ $58.97

CGNX cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on CGNX, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Industrial Machinery/Components and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $58.97 (52-wk range $34.60 - $72.88), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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