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Stock Ratings / Financials / CG / earnings
OWL (65) IVZ (58) BEN (65) TPG (64) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.9% Move

$40.18 -0.96% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.03

The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 33/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $14.46B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, The Carlyle Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CG) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $40.18 (-0.96% 1D, market cap $14.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CG ranks #1001 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CG compare to OWL and IVZ in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), CG carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.4%. By comparison, OWL (Blue Owl Capital Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 53.1x, ROIC 6.3%, cap $16.23B) and IVZ (Invesco Ltd) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.2%, cap $12.81B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CG leads on earnings multiple (17.9x) while OWL leads on capital efficiency (6.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CG?
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Per CG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001527166), The Carlyle Group Inc. generated $4.78B in revenue (-11.9% YoY), $808.7M in net income, and -$3.37B in free cash flow against $29.12B in total assets and $9.93B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.04 (-0.36%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510033
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (5)Whales (9)SEC (10)Macro (3)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.2% Base Target
$71 Bull$36 Base$28 Bear
📬 FREE CG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (33/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CG SCORES 33/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.9% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (57.2) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
25
Grade E$37.24+0.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
28
Grade E$37.31+3.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
30
Grade E$38.53+4.3% Next Q
Current
33
Grade E$40.18-8.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (25) → E (33)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CG currently carries a cautious 33/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($41.12) and Max Pain ($42.19) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $70.67.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 33%NO 67%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.9% Swing Band

±$2.77 Expected Swing
$37.41 (-6.9%)Spot $40.18$42.95 (+6.9%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

CG Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 33/100

Trailing EPS: $2.27 • YoY Revenue Growth: -11.9%

Model Bullish Setup (33/100)Model Risk Weight (67/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$4.78B$808.7M-$3.37B52%
FY 20242024-12-31$5.43B$1.02B-$837.2M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$2.96B-$608.4M$71.5M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CG)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
CG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.59%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $39.06H $40.57L $39.06C $40.18VOL 3.05M
RES: $51.42SUP: $33.53SMA50: $41.12SMA200: $46.94
$58.78$52.45$46.11$39.78$33.44RES $51.42SUP $33.53$40.182026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CG Butterfly Map → + Track CG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
11.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -11.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CG)

Financials Rank #1001 of 1096 ⚔️ OWL vs CG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CG vs. OWL, IVZ, BEN, TPG)

Industry: Investment Managers (79 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) ranks #1001 by composite RQD confidence (33/100, grade E) and #143 by equity capitalization ($14.46B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CG leads on earnings valuation at 17.9x trailing P/E, while OWL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.3% ROIC and — gross margin. OWL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with CG at 33/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CG ACTIVE
The Carlyle Group Inc.
E 33/100 17.9x — 5.4% -0.96% $14.46B Benchmark Subject
OWL
Blue Owl Capital Inc.
C 65/100 53.1x — 6.3% -0.77% $16.23B /owl-vs-cg →
IVZ
Invesco Ltd
D+ 58/100 — — -3.2% -4.34% $12.81B /ivz-vs-cg →
BEN
Franklin Templeton Inc.
C 65/100 31.3x — 3.0% -2.16% $16.43B /ben-vs-cg →
TPG
TPG Inc.
C 64/100 98.2x — 2.5% -2.63% $18.12B /tpg-vs-cg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001527166

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) reported GAAP revenue of $4.78B (-11.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.43B , and +61.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $808.7M, operating cash flow of -$3.28B, and free cash flow of -$3.37B (-303.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, CG closed FY2025 with $29.12B in total assets against $9.93B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $4.78B $808.7M -$3.28B -$3.37B $29.12B $9.93B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $5.43B $1.02B -$759.5M -$837.2M $23.10B $7.54B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.96B -$608.4M $204.9M $71.5M $7.95B $1.86B

3. CG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, The Carlyle Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CG) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $40.18 (-0.96% 1D, market cap $14.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CG ranks #1001 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CG compare to OWL and IVZ in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), CG carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.4%. By comparison, OWL (Blue Owl Capital Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 53.1x, ROIC 6.3%, cap $16.23B) and IVZ (Invesco Ltd) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.2%, cap $12.81B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CG leads on earnings multiple (17.9x) while OWL leads on capital efficiency (6.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CG?

Per CG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001527166), The Carlyle Group Inc. generated $4.78B in revenue (-11.9% YoY), $808.7M in net income, and -$3.37B in free cash flow against $29.12B in total assets and $9.93B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CG last traded at $40.18 (-0.96% on volume of 2,635,297 shares), positioning the stock -2.29% below its 50-day simple moving average ($41.12) and -14.40% below its 200-day simple moving average ($46.94). Across its 52-week range of $35.41 to $67.30, CG sits at the 15.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.9% ($37.41 to $42.95).

CG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is CG's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is CG stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.9% event move for CG, spanning a range between $37.41 and $42.95.

Direct Sub-Reports: CG RQD Cockpit CG 12M Forecast CG Earnings & Move CG Dividends & DRIP CG Insiders & 13F CG Whale Options CG Profit Sankey CG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 33/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

CG — The Carlyle Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:14:52Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CG scores 33 out of 100 with a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 5 of 20 (ROIC 5.4%; FCF yield -18%), Whale 13F Flow at 9 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 6 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 3 of 20 (Beta 0.88; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10 of 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 3/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor, the weakest pillars are the cash engine and macro fit. The 5.4% ROIC and -18% FCF yield indicate that reported profitability is not converting into free cash flow in the period covered. The strongest relative pillar, the balance sheet at 10 of 20, still reflects a Piotroski F-Score of 3 of 9, which signals limited financial-health strength. Insider and institutional flow register only moderate scores. The rating therefore frames CG as an elevated-risk name on forensic grounds rather than a fundamentally strong one. Valuation metrics (P/E TTM 17.9, Forward P/E 16.6) appear modest in isolation, but per the Roarable RQD rating and SEC financials, they should be weighed against negative FCF and the low ROIC.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
40.57$14.46B17.916.620.32.273.49%0.88$35.41 - $67.35.4%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$4779.8M$954.3M$808.7MN/A$-3374.9M$1970.2M$9926.5M
FY 2024$5425.8M$1204.1M$1020.4MN/A$-837.2M$1266.0M$7540.2M
FY 2023$2963.9M$-717.9M$-608.4MN/A$71.5MN/A$1860.5M

Per the SEC financials, revenue declined from $5425.8M in FY 2024 to $4779.8M in FY 2025, while debt rose from $7540.2M to $9926.5M. Per the market data, operating margin is 20.6%, net margin is 16.9%, and gross margin is 0%. ROIC is 5.4%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 3 of 9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. The reported FCF in FY 2025 of $-3374.9M is consistent with the -18% FCF yield in the market data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Price target cut (RED / RISK WATCH): A headline reports a 12-month price target cut to $56.37, implying 42% upside, per TradingView.
  • Lukoil asset deal (YELLOW / MARKET WIRE): Per Seeking Alpha and Bloomberg, Carlyle stated a deal to buy Lukoil assets expired.
  • Share price move (GREEN / CATALYST): Per GuruFocus, shares surged 3.9%, with a GF Score of 75 cited.
  • Gulf-backed AI push (YELLOW / MARKET WIRE): Per Simply Wall St, investor reaction to a Gulf-backed AI initiative is covered.
  • Analyst rating change (YELLOW / MARKET WIRE): Per MarketBeat, Wall Street Zen upgraded the stock to Hold.
  • General market wire (YELLOW / MARKET WIRE): A Yahoo Finance UK feed covers market action without specific detail.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain status is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What is the composition of the -$3374.9M FY 2025 free cash flow, and how much reflects timing versus structural cash outflow?
  • What were the terms and scale of the Lukoil asset transaction, and what was its financial exposure?
  • What drove the rise in debt from $7540.2M to $9926.5M, and what is the maturity profile?
  • What do the 13F and Form 4 filings show for institutional and insider positioning, given that holders data is absent?
  • What explains the basis for the GF Score of 75 relative to the Roarable RQD score of 33?

CG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $40.18?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CG 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $35.70 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is CG (E • RQD 33/100) a Buy at $40.57?

Welcome to the CG (The Carlyle Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 33/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Investment Managers. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $31.64 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $40.57

Pump the brakes on CG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on CG, but look at what you are paying: 17.9x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless The Carlyle Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $48.68 (+20.0%)
Spot @ $40.57

CG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on CG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Investment Managers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $40.57 (52-wk range $35.41 - $67.30), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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