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LOCO (65) DIN (66) PZZA (61) KRUS (18) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A) (BRCB) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$10.40 -1.79% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.35

Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A) (BRCB) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 34/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $520.8M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BRCB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: BRCB) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 34/100 at a spot price of $10.40 (-1.79% 1D, market cap $520.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BRCB ranks #801 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BRCB compare to LOCO and DIN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), BRCB carries a Roarable E (34/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.6%. By comparison, LOCO (El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 17.7x, ROIC 11.7%, cap $465.6M) and DIN (Dine Brands Global Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 26.0x, ROIC —, cap $449.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LOCO leads on earnings multiple (17.7x) while PZZA leads on capital efficiency (30.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BRCB?
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Per BRCB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002068577), Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A) generated $200.3M in revenue (+24.5% YoY), -$60.0K in net income, and -$32.7M in free cash flow against $336.4M in total assets and $25.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.35 (-0.51%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (34/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510034
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (4)Whales (10)SEC (12)Macro (3)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.8% Base Target
$27 Bull$9 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE BRCB RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BRCB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (34/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BRCB SCORES 34/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (35% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.98 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (29% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (71.4) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
26
Grade E$7.38+16.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
29
Grade E$8.62+20.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
31
Grade E$10.37+0.3% Next Q
Current
34
Grade E$10.40-8.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (26) → E (34)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BRCB Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BRCB currently carries a cautious 34/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.38) and Max Pain ($10.92) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $27.11.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BRCB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BRCB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 34%NO 66%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your BRCB Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $10.40: 961.5 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $7.24
$6,962
$-3,038 (-30.4%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $9.28
$8,923
$-1,077 (-10.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $27.11
$26,067
+$16,067 (+160.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1074%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$858%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BRCB)

  • ✓Walkthrough of BRCB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BRCB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.61%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $10.59H $10.59L $10.40C $10.40VOL 454.1K
RES: $10.90SUP: $6.64SMA50: $8.38SMA200: $10.48
$20.32$16.47$12.62$8.77$4.91RES $10.90SUP $6.64$10.402026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BRCB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BRCB Butterfly Map → + Track BRCB →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
15.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +24.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BRCB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BRCB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BRCB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BRCB)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #801 of 1009 ⚔️ LOCO vs BRCB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BRCB vs. LOCO, DIN, PZZA, KRUS)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A) (BRCB) ranks #801 by composite RQD confidence (34/100, grade E) and #579 by equity capitalization ($520.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LOCO leads on earnings valuation at 17.7x trailing P/E, while PZZA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.5% ROIC and — gross margin. DIN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with BRCB at 34/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BRCB ACTIVE
Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A)
E 34/100 — — 1.6% -1.79% $520.8M Benchmark Subject
LOCO
El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc.
C 65/100 17.7x — 11.7% -0.45% $465.6M /loco-vs-brcb →
DIN
Dine Brands Global Inc.
C+ 66/100 26.0x 40.9% — +1.00% $449.5M /din-vs-brcb →
PZZA
Papa John's International Inc.
C- 61/100 20.3x — 30.5% -1.83% $607.6M /pzza-vs-brcb →
KRUS
Kura Sushi USA Inc. (Class A)
E 18/100 — — -1.9% +0.09% $424.8M /krus-vs-brcb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002068577 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A) (BRCB) reported GAAP revenue of $200.3M (+24.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $160.9M , and +50.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$60.0K, operating cash flow of $2.2M, and free cash flow of -$32.7M (-268.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, BRCB closed FY2025 with $336.4M in total assets against $25.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.98, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $200.3M -$60.0K $2.2M -$32.7M $336.4M $25.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $160.9M -$7.2M $13.3M -$8.9M $212.9M $89.3M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $133.2M -$8.8M $5.2M $5.2M — —

3. BRCB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BRCB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: BRCB) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 34/100 at a spot price of $10.40 (-1.79% 1D, market cap $520.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BRCB ranks #801 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BRCB compare to LOCO and DIN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), BRCB carries a Roarable E (34/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.6%. By comparison, LOCO (El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 17.7x, ROIC 11.7%, cap $465.6M) and DIN (Dine Brands Global Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 26.0x, ROIC —, cap $449.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LOCO leads on earnings multiple (17.7x) while PZZA leads on capital efficiency (30.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BRCB?

Per BRCB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002068577), Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A) generated $200.3M in revenue (+24.5% YoY), -$60.0K in net income, and -$32.7M in free cash flow against $336.4M in total assets and $25.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BRCB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BRCB last traded at $10.40 (-1.79% on volume of 454,098 shares), positioning the stock +24.11% above its 50-day simple moving average ($8.38) and -0.76% below its 200-day simple moving average ($10.48). Across its 52-week range of $6.11 to $25.82, BRCB sits at the 21.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 71.4 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($9.10 to $11.70).

Direct Sub-Reports: BRCB RQD Cockpit BRCB 12M Forecast BRCB Earnings & Move BRCB Dividends & DRIP BRCB Insiders & 13F BRCB Whale Options BRCB Profit Sankey BRCB News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 34/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BRCB — Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A) (BRCB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 34/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $10.40 (-1.79% 1D, market capitalization $520.8M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 1.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 0.4%, and free cash flow yield of -6.17%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.98, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.57x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, operating in the Restaurants industry,. The company reported revenue of $200.3M for FY 2025, indicating it generates revenue from its operations.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A) (BRCB) reported $200.3M in annual revenue (up from $160.9M in FY2024, +24.5% YoY) and -$60.0K in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($133.2M revenue, -$8.8M net income) through FY2025, BRCB scaled operating cash flow to $2.2M and free cash flow to -$32.7M, backed by $336.4M in total assets against $25.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 34/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -6.17% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $6.11 – $25.82 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation and 17.3x EV/EBITDA against 0.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore — The only sector context available is the classification as Consumer Discretionary and Restaurants, with a beta of 1.0 per the market data.

  • Key Question #1: Can BRCB sustain or expand its 0.4% operating margin and 1.6% ROIC against Restaurants peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $200.3M and free cash flow of -$32.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $25.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BRCB's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BRCB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A) (BRCB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BRCB Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BRCB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $10.40?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BRCB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BRCB:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.73 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $133.2M in FY 2023 to $200.3M in FY 2025 while debt fell from $89.3M to $25.9M, with cash rising to $28.4M.

Long BRCB at $10.40 targeting $13.73. Revenue grew from $133.2M in FY 2023 to $200.3M in FY 2025 while debt fell from $89.3M to $25.9M, with cash rising to $28.4M.. Institutional whale score is 10/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $6.11 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Shorting a 10/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $10.40 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.74 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $10.40

Free cash flow was -$32.7M in FY 2025 and ROIC is only 1.6%, with the RQD cash-engine pillar scoring 4 of 20.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short BRCB above $10.40. Free cash flow was -$32.7M in FY 2025 and ROIC is only 1.6%, with the RQD cash-engine pillar scoring 4 of 20.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20) and FCF yield (-6.17%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $25.82.

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