ROARABLE
FREE $100K
Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / BOOT / forecast
AEO (72) BKE (73) ANF (84) VSXY (71) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Boot Barn Holdings Inc. (BOOT) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$137.32 +3.84% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $138.01

Boot Barn Holdings Inc. (BOOT) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.95B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BOOT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BOOT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Boot Barn Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BOOT) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $137.32 (+3.84% 1D, market cap $3.95B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BOOT ranks #300 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BOOT compare to AEO and BKE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores), BOOT carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.3x, gross margin of 38.1%, and ROIC of 15.2%. By comparison, AEO (American Eagle Outfitters Inc.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 18.1x, ROIC 12.3%, cap $3.29B) and BKE (Buckle Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 48.6%, cap $2.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BKE leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while BKE leads on capital efficiency (48.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BOOT?
▼

Per BOOT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-28, CIK 0001610250), Boot Barn Holdings Inc. generated $2.25B in revenue (+17.9% YoY), $225.9M in net income, and $126.3M in free cash flow against $2.40B in total assets and $501.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $138.01 (+0.50%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 5.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510061
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (10)SEC (16)Macro (7)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.3% Base Target
$221 Bull$139 Base$109 Bear
📬 FREE BOOT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BOOT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BOOT SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.39 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (59.6) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
53
Grade C-$112.86+2.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
56
Grade C$116.09-2.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
58
Grade C$113.30+21.2% Next Q
Current
61
Grade C-$137.32+0.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BOOT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, BOOT faces multiple-compression risk if 17.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 35.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($129.28) or 200D SMA ($157.22) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($139.17) toward Bear Floor ($108.55).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BOOT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BOOT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your BOOT Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $137.32: 72.8 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $108.55
$7,905
$-2,095 (-21.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $139.17
$10,135
+$135 (+1.3%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $220.76
$16,076
+$6,076 (+60.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$14574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$20869%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$12458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BOOT Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
BOOT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.10%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $130.5H $137.3L $130.5C $137.3VOL 1.26M
RES: $150.3SUP: $102.0SMA50: $129.3SMA200: $157.2
$189.3$168.0$146.6$125.3$103.9RES $150.3SUP $102.0$137.32026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BOOT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BOOT Butterfly Map → + Track BOOT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
10.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BOOT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BOOT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BOOT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BOOT)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #300 of 1009 ⚔️ AEO vs BOOT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BOOT vs. AEO, BKE, ANF, VSXY)

Industry: Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores (25 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Boot Barn Holdings Inc. (BOOT) ranks #300 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #313 by equity capitalization ($3.95B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BKE leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while BKE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 48.6% ROIC and 49.0% gross margin. ANF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 84/100 (A-) compared with BOOT at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BOOT ACTIVE
Boot Barn Holdings Inc.
C- 61/100 17.3x 38.1% 15.2% +3.84% $3.95B Benchmark Subject
AEO
American Eagle Outfitters Inc.
B 72/100 18.1x 36.5% 12.3% +0.71% $3.29B /aeo-vs-boot →
BKE
Buckle Inc.
B 73/100 11.5x 49.0% 48.6% +2.01% $2.39B /bke-vs-boot →
ANF
Abercrombie & Fitch Company
A- 84/100 13.9x — 40.7% -0.16% $6.98B /anf-vs-boot →
VSXY
Victorias Secret & Co.
B- 71/100 49.1x 36.4% 16.4% +2.00% $7.71B /vsxy-vs-boot →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-28 • CIK 0001610250 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-28), Boot Barn Holdings Inc. (BOOT) reported GAAP revenue of $2.25B (+17.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.91B , and +35.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $225.9M, operating cash flow of $304.9M, and free cash flow of $126.3M (+16878.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, BOOT closed FY2025 with $2.40B in total assets against $501.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.39, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-03-28 $2.25B $225.9M $304.9M $126.3M $2.40B $501.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2025-03-29 $1.91B $180.9M $147.5M -$753.0K $2.01B $415.1M
FY2023 (FY) 2024-03-30 $1.67B $147.0M $236.1M $161.1M $2.15B $502.2M

3. BOOT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BOOT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Boot Barn Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BOOT) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $137.32 (+3.84% 1D, market cap $3.95B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BOOT ranks #300 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BOOT compare to AEO and BKE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores), BOOT carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.3x, gross margin of 38.1%, and ROIC of 15.2%. By comparison, AEO (American Eagle Outfitters Inc.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 18.1x, ROIC 12.3%, cap $3.29B) and BKE (Buckle Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 48.6%, cap $2.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BKE leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while BKE leads on capital efficiency (48.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BOOT?

Per BOOT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-28, CIK 0001610250), Boot Barn Holdings Inc. generated $2.25B in revenue (+17.9% YoY), $225.9M in net income, and $126.3M in free cash flow against $2.40B in total assets and $501.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BOOT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BOOT last traded at $137.32 (+3.84% on volume of 1,310,141 shares), positioning the stock +6.22% above its 50-day simple moving average ($129.28) and -12.66% below its 200-day simple moving average ($157.22). Across its 52-week range of $110.53 to $210.25, BOOT sits at the 26.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.3% ($120.43 to $154.21).

Direct Sub-Reports: BOOT RQD Cockpit BOOT 12M Forecast BOOT Earnings & Move BOOT Dividends & DRIP BOOT Insiders & 13F BOOT Whale Options BOOT Profit Sankey BOOT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 61/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BOOT — Boot Barn Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-03-28

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Boot Barn Holdings Inc. (BOOT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 61/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $137.32 (+3.84% 1D, market capitalization $3.95B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 15.2%, gross margin of 38.1%, operating margin of 13.3%, and free cash flow yield of 3.24%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.06x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.39, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.37x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Boot Barn Holdings Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, within the Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores industry. It operates as a retailer in this industry.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-03-28), Boot Barn Holdings Inc. (BOOT) reported $2.25B in annual revenue (up from $1.91B in FY2024, +17.9% YoY) and $225.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.67B revenue, $147.0M net income) through FY2025, BOOT scaled operating cash flow to $304.9M and free cash flow to $126.3M, backed by $2.40B in total assets against $501.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 61/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $110.53 – $210.25 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 17.3x trailing P/E and 9.2x EV/EBITDA against 13.3% operating margins and a 1.06x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Supply_chain is NONE, butterfly_links is empty, and proprietary_signals is empty. No upstream supplier, downstream customer, or cross-sector dependency is mapped in the source data. Second-order bottlenecks and sector correlations beyond the Consumer Discretionary classification are — The only sector-level signal available is the Roarable RQD rating's macro/sector sensitivity pillar (7/20, beta 1.06), which indicates the stock's price moves are expected to be somewhat amplified relative to the broader market.

  • Key Question #1: Can BOOT sustain or expand its 13.3% operating margin and 15.2% ROIC against Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.25B and free cash flow of $126.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $501.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BOOT's 14.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.06x)?

BOOT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Boot Barn Holdings Inc. (BOOT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BOOT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BOOT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $137.32?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BOOT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BOOT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $166.62 (+26.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet is strong, with Piotroski F 9/9, Altman Z 4.39, and Debt/Equity 0.37, while FY 2025 revenue reached $2.25B and

Long BOOT at $132.24 targeting $166.62. Forensic balance sheet is strong, with Piotroski F 9/9, Altman Z 4.39, and Debt/Equity 0.37, while FY 2025 revenue reached $2.25B and operating income $299.1M.. Institutional whale score is 10/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $110.53 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — BOOT's 16/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $108.44 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $132.24

Piper Sandler cut its price target on soft comps, and FCF was negative in FY 2024 (-$0.8M) with a 3.24% FCF yield and macro sensitivity

Fading this rally in BOOT at $132.24. Piper Sandler cut its price target on soft comps, and FCF was negative in FY 2024 (-$0.8M) with a 3.24% FCF yield and macro sensitivity scored 7/20.. With a beta of 1.06 and the stock sitting at $132.24 (52-wk range $110.53–$210.25), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $202.06 -1.26% AAPL $338.32 -1.83% MSFT $507.12 -2.83% TSLA $403.82 +1.00% PLTR $178.34 -3.13% SOFI $16.60 -0.95% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%