Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$31.80 +0.09% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.88

Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 10% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $1.03B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BFST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Business First Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: BFST) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $31.80 (+0.09% 1D, market cap $1.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BFST ranks #130 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BFST compare to MCBS and EGBN in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BFST carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.8%. By comparison, MCBS (MetroCity Bankshares Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 15.1x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $1.04B) and EGBN (Eagle Bancorp Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.2%, cap $1.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BFST leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while MCBS leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BFST?
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Per BFST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001624322), Business First Bancshares Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $87.9M in net income, and $92.0M in free cash flow against $8.21B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.88 (+0.26%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 2.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
025507510070
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (15)Whales (14)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target
$40 Bull$34 Base$26 Bear
📬 FREE BFST RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BFST)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BFST SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.3% FCF Margin ($92.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (58.7) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
62
Grade C+$30.82+0.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
65
Grade C+$31.06+2.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
67
Grade B-$31.82-0.1% Next Q
Current
70
Grade B-$31.80+6.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BFST Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, BFST faces multiple-compression risk if 11.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($31.11) or 200D SMA ($29.38) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($33.52) toward Bear Floor ($26.08).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BFST• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BFST Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your BFST Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $31.80: 314.5 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $26.08
$8,201
$-1,799 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $33.52
$10,541
+$541 (+5.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $39.55
$12,437
+$2,437 (+24.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$3574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$3769%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$3058%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BFST Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
BFST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.65%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $31.64H $31.80L $31.64C $31.80VOL 189.3K
RES: $34.38SUP: $29.51SMA50: $31.11SMA200: $29.38
$32.98$31.10$29.23$27.35$25.47RES $34.38SUP $29.51$31.802026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BFST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
2.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BFST today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BFST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BFST today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BFST)

Financials Rank #130 of 1096 ⚔️ MCBS vs BFST Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BFST vs. MCBS, EGBN, MBWM, CCNE)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) ranks #130 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #547 by equity capitalization ($1.03B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BFST leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while MCBS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. BFST currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BFST ACTIVE
Business First Bancshares Inc.
B- 70/100 11.8x — 9.8% +0.09% $1.03B Benchmark Subject
MCBS
MetroCity Bankshares Inc.
C 62/100 15.1x — 12.6% -0.47% $1.04B /mcbs-vs-bfst →
EGBN
Eagle Bancorp Inc.
D+ 55/100 — — -12.2% -0.57% $1.02B /egbn-vs-bfst →
MBWM
Mercantile Bank Corporation
C- 59/100 11.8x — 12.2% -1.38% $1.05B /mbwm-vs-bfst →
CCNE
CNB Financial Corporation
C+ 66/100 16.0x — 7.6% -0.42% $1.05B /ccne-vs-bfst →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001624322

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $87.9M, operating cash flow of $92.1M, and free cash flow of $92.0M (+53.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, BFST closed FY2025 with $8.21B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 $87.9M $92.1M $92.0M $8.21B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $65.1M $61.4M $59.8M $7.86B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 $71.0M $91.0M $91.0M — —

3. BFST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BFST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Business First Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: BFST) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $31.80 (+0.09% 1D, market cap $1.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BFST ranks #130 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BFST compare to MCBS and EGBN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BFST carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.8%. By comparison, MCBS (MetroCity Bankshares Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 15.1x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $1.04B) and EGBN (Eagle Bancorp Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.2%, cap $1.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BFST leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while MCBS leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BFST?

Per BFST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001624322), Business First Bancshares Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $87.9M in net income, and $92.0M in free cash flow against $8.21B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BFST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BFST last traded at $31.80 (+0.09% on volume of 171,774 shares), positioning the stock +2.22% above its 50-day simple moving average ($31.11) and +8.24% above its 200-day simple moving average ($29.38). Across its 52-week range of $24.06 to $32.53, BFST sits at the 91.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.5% ($30.69 to $32.91).

BFST Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is BFST's 12-month stock price target?

Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $33.52 (+5.4% from $31.80), with a bull-case target of $39.55 and a bear-case floor of $26.08.

Is BFST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates BFST B- (Buy — BUY) with an RQD Confidence score of 70/100.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 70/100 (B-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

BFST — Business First Bancshares Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:31:08Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, BFST scores 70 out of 100, a B- grade, with the verdict "Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 15 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 9.8% and an FCF yield of 8.9%. For an investor, these are the strongest quantitative supports in the rating: they indicate the business generates cash returns relative to its capital base and its market value.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 14 / 20. The RQD rating describes institutional accumulation and options positioning. The pillar is moderately positive, suggesting that large holders are net buyers, though the source data does not itemize the holdings.
  • Insider Conviction: 16 / 20. The highest pillar score, reflecting SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Per the RQD rating, this is the most favorable signal in the scorecard, though the underlying transactions are not itemized in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 12 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and sector sensitivity is noted. This is a middling score: the stock is expected to move roughly in line with the market, so it does not offer defensive insulation or outsized beta-driven upside.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 13 / 20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. These are moderate readings: the Z-score and leverage are reasonable, while the Piotroski score signals mixed rather than strong fundamental quality.

Taken together, the pillars point to upside drivers in insider activity and cash returns, with valuation supported by a forward P/E of 11 (per market data), and tradeoffs in limited macro differentiation and a mid-range balance sheet score. The rating is an educational summary of the data, not a recommendation.

Business

Business First Bancshares Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry, per the company profile. The profile does not describe its specific products, customer base, or revenue model. Not available in source data for the remaining business description details.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$0.0M$87.9MN/A$92.0M$411.2MN/A
FY 2024$0.0M$0.0M$65.1MN/A$59.8M$319.1MN/A
FY 2023$0.0M$0.0M$71.0MN/A$91.0MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, net income rose from $65.1M in FY 2024 to $87.9M in FY 2025, while cash grew from $319.1M to $411.2M. Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each reported as 0%, which the source data does not explain, so margin analysis cannot be reliably performed. Per the market data, ROIC is 9.8%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9. Per the RQD rating, Debt/Equity is 0.5.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news data, five headlines are catalogued, all relating to BFST:

  • A Yahoo Finance report on Q3 earnings citing margin gains despite a flat stock, flagged as a GREEN catalyst.
  • A Moomoo report on the announcement of a stock repurchase program, flagged YELLOW as market wire.
  • A TradingView estimates item, flagged YELLOW.
  • A Yahoo Finance valuation piece asking whether the stock is a bargain or fully priced, flagged GREEN as a catalyst.
  • A Seeking Alpha item covering the 2026 Q3 earnings call presentation dated 2026-10-26, flagged YELLOW.
  • A Stock Titan item reporting that up to $30 million is authorized for share buybacks over two years, with none required, flagged GREEN as a catalyst.

Per the news data, the repurchase authorization and Q3 margin commentary are the most material catalysts. Risk watch items are not separately identified in the source data. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is NONE, with no upstream or downstream links recorded and no proprietary signals. Sector correlations and second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data. The graph's absence means that ripple analysis cannot be grounded in the provided data; a prospective investor should note that the sector context (Financials, Major Banks) is the only structural information available.

Open Questions

  • What are the specific revenue, operating income, and EPS figures? The financial table reports $0.0M for revenue and operating income and N/A for EPS across all periods.
  • Why are gross, operating, and net margins each reported as 0%, and what is the correct margin profile?
  • What are the total debt figures, and how was Debt/Equity of 0.5 derived when debt is listed as N/A?
  • What are the specific institutional holders, insider transactions, and 13F positions that support the RQD whale and insider pillar scores?
  • What is the company's business model, product mix, and loan or deposit composition, which the source data does not describe?

BFST Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Business First Bancshares Inc. (BFST) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BFST Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BFST Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $31.80?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BFST 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BFST:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $37.49 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is BFST (B- • RQD 70/100) a Buy at $31.77?

Welcome to the BFST (Business First Bancshares Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 70/100 (Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation) in Major Banks. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $23.83 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $31.77

Pump the brakes on BFST — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on BFST, but look at what you are paying: 11.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Business First Bancshares Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $39.08 (+23.0%)
Spot @ $31.77

BFST cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on BFST, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Banks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $31.77 (52-wk range $24.06 - $32.53), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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