Stock Ratings / Health Care / AVLN / insiders

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Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$25.63 -0.31% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.57

Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.14B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AVLN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AVLN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Avalyn Pharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AVLN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $25.63 (-0.31% 1D, market cap $1.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AVLN ranks #431 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AVLN compare to AMPH and SPTX in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AVLN carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, AMPH (Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 11.7x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $1.15B) and SPTX (Seaport Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.13B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMPH leads on earnings multiple (11.7x) while MNKD leads on capital efficiency (54.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVLN?

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Per AVLN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001540171), Avalyn Pharma Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $148.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.57 (-0.25%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVLN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AVLN SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.8% FCF Margin ($31.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$24.80-5.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$23.33+16.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$27.14-5.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$25.63-6.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (36) → D (44)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AVLN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AVLN currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($29.90) and Max Pain ($26.91) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $42.18.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVLN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AVLN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

AVLN Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (AVLN)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on AVLN. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVLN)

✓Walkthrough of AVLN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AVLN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.83%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $25.74H $25.74L $25.63C $25.63VOL 593.3K

RES: $46.55SUP: $22.06SMA50: $29.90SMA200: $29.96

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVLN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AVLN Butterfly Map → + Track AVLN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVLN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVLN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVLN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVLN)

Health Care Rank #431 of 1016 ⚔️ AMPH vs AVLN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AVLN vs. AMPH, SPTX, MNKD, HROW)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) ranks #431 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #345 by equity capitalization ($1.14B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AMPH leads on earnings valuation at 11.7x trailing P/E, while MNKD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 54.5% ROIC and 92.3% gross margin. AMPH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with AVLN at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AVLN ACTIVE Avalyn Pharma Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	—	-0.31%	$1.14B	Benchmark Subject
AMPH Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc.	B	72/100	11.7x	49.5%	9.0%	+2.93%	$1.15B	/amph-vs-avln →
SPTX Seaport Therapeutics Inc.	D+	55/100	—	—	—	-7.11%	$1.13B	/sptx-vs-avln →
MNKD MannKind Corporation	D+	55/100	—	92.3%	54.5%	0.00%	$1.13B	/mnkd-vs-avln →
HROW Harrow Inc.	D+	55/100	—	75.1%	42.9%	-5.83%	$1.12B	/hrow-vs-avln →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001540171

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, AVLN closed FY2025 with $148.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$0	—	—	$148.9M	$0

3. AVLN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVLN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AVLN compare to AMPH and SPTX in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVLN?

Where is AVLN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVLN last traded at $25.63 (-0.31% on volume of 343,497 shares), positioning the stock -14.28% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.90) and -14.45% below its 200-day simple moving average ($29.96). Across its 52-week range of $22.24 to $40.17, AVLN sits at the 18.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($22.43 to $28.83).

AVLN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are AVLN insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies AVLN leadership and institutional positioning as: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING.

Direct Sub-Reports: AVLN RQD Cockpit AVLN 12M Forecast AVLN Earnings & Move AVLN Dividends & DRIP AVLN Insiders & 13F AVLN Whale Options AVLN Profit Sankey AVLN News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 44/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AVLN — Avalyn Pharma Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T14:14:03Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AVLN scores 44 out of 100, earning a letter grade of D and the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine (10 / 20): The rating cites ROIC of 0% and FCF yield of 0%. For a prospective investor, this indicates the source data shows no measurable return on invested capital and no free-cash-flow yield to support valuation today.
Whale 13F Flow (3 / 20): This is the weakest pillar, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning. The lowest score here suggests the source data does not show supportive institutional demand.
Insider Conviction (9 / 20): Per the rating, this pillar covers SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. A score of 9 indicates limited insider-driven conviction signals in the source data.
Macro Regime Fit (9 / 20): The rating reports Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. This is a market-average beta, meaning the stock's movement relative to the broader market is neutral on this measure, but the pillar score still reflects weak regime alignment.
Forensic Balance Sheet (13 / 20): The rating cites Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. This is the strongest pillar, indicating the balance sheet is comparatively the most defensible component of the profile.

Investor implications: the potential upside drivers in this data are limited to the balance-sheet strength (Forensic pillar) and the cash position reported in the financials. The valuation tradeoff is significant: with a $1.14B market cap and 0% ROIC and FCF yield in the source data, the current price is not supported by reported cash generation. Ripple effects would most likely run through institutional and insider flow, given the weak scores in those pillars. This is an analytical summary, not personalized financial advice.

Business

Avalyn Pharma Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Health Care sector and the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry, per the profile. Not available in source data for specific products, customers, or revenue model. The source data reports revenue of $0.0M for FY 2025, so the profile does not confirm a commercial revenue stream.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025 (filed 2025-12-31)	$0.0M	$0.0M	$0.0M	N/A	N/A	$52.3M	$0.0M

Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 reports zero revenue, zero operating income, and zero net income, with $52.3M in cash and $0.0M in debt. Gross, operating, and net margins are each 0% per the market data, and ROIC is 0%. The Altman Z-Score of 2.5 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 are cited within the Roarable RQD rating, and Debt/Equity of 0.5 is also cited there. The balance sheet posture is therefore described in the source as cash-holding with no reported debt, while the income statement shows no reported revenue or profit.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the following items relate to AVLN, all tagged with a YELLOW light and MARKET WIRE impact label:

A MarketBeat report headlined that the stock price was down 5.1%.
A MarketBeat report headlined that the stock reached a new 1-year low.
A Globe and Mail "U.S. Analyst Updates" item listing multiple tickers.
A MarketBeat report headlined a "Moderate Buy" rating from sell-side brokerages.
A TradingKey "Largest Companies by Market Cap" item.
A MarketBeat report headlined that the shares gapped down.

Risk watch items per the feed: the new 1-year low and the gap-down headlines. Positive watch item per the feed: the "Moderate Buy" headline. Proprietary signals per the Butterfly graph: none.

Open Questions

What revenue source, if any, sits behind the reported $0.0M in FY 2025 revenue, and what is the expected timeline for commercial revenue?
Why are P/E, forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EPS unavailable, and does the company currently report positive earnings?
What is the composition of the $52.3M cash position, and how long does it fund operations at the current loss profile?
Who holds the shares, and what do 13F and insider filings show about institutional and insider positioning?
What drove the news-flagged 5.1% decline, 1-year low, and gap-down, and are there any company-specific catalysts disclosed?

AVLN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AVLN Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 12h ago

Avalyn Pharma (NASDAQ:AVLN) Stock Price Down 5.1% - Here's What Happened

MarketBeat report covering Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 15h ago

Avalyn Pharma (NASDAQ:AVLN) Reaches New 1-Year Low - Should You Sell?

MarketBeat report covering Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 18h ago

U.S. Analyst Updates: (ABNB) (BAC) (ORCL) (HOOD) (NVDA) (USB) (WFC)

The Globe and Mail report covering Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 21h ago

Avalyn Pharma Inc. (NASDAQ:AVLN) Stock Now Rated "Moderate Buy" by Sell-Side Brokerages

MarketBeat report covering Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingKey • 1d ago

Largest Companies by Market Cap: U.S. Stocks

TradingKey report covering Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Avalyn Pharma (NASDAQ:AVLN) Shares Gap Down - Should You Sell?

MarketBeat report covering Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingKey • 1d ago

Complete U.S. Stocks List: Prices, Performance and Key Data

TradingKey report covering Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Avalyn Pharma (NASDAQ:AVLN) Reaches New 52-Week Low - Should You Sell?

MarketBeat report covering Avalyn Pharma Inc. (AVLN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AVLN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $25.63?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AVLN 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $22.62 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AVLN (D • RQD 44/100) a Buy at $25.71?

Welcome to the AVLN (Avalyn Pharma Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 44/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $20.57 (-20.0%)

Spot @ $25.71

Pump the brakes on AVLN — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AVLN, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Avalyn Pharma Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $30.34 (+18.0%)

Spot @ $25.71

AVLN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AVLN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $25.71 (52-wk range $22.24 - $40.17), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.