ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$14.87 -6.77% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.66

ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $786.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AVBP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AVBP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $14.87 (-6.77% 1D, market cap $786.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AVBP ranks #872 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AVBP compare to HELP and COLL in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AVBP carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, HELP (Helus Pharma Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $782.5M) and COLL (Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 12.4x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $782.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, COLL leads on earnings multiple (12.4x) while COLL leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVBP?
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Per AVBP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001868279), ArriVent BioPharma Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$166.3M in net income, and -$160.6M in free cash flow against $333.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.66 (-1.41%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510029
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (6)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (7)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13% Base Target
$38 Bull$13 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE AVBP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVBP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AVBP SCORES 29/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (34% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+7/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 14% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 36.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
37
Grade E$16.46+9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
34
Grade E$17.94-14.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
32
Grade E$15.36-3.2% Next Q
Current
29
Grade E$14.87-9.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (37) → E (29)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AVBP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AVBP currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($24.49) and Max Pain ($15.61) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $37.62.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVBP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AVBP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
36.930 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
2 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE14% OF RANGE
L: $11$14.87H: $36
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on AVBP

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (30)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -20.42% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (22)

6/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AVBP
  • ✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVBP)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AVBP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AVBP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -51.05%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $15.73H $15.95L $14.87C $14.87VOL 658.3K
RES: $29.50SUP: $6.98SMA50: $24.49SMA200: $26.93
$37.54$30.45$23.35$16.25$9.16RES $29.50SUP $6.98$14.872026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVBP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVBP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVBP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVBP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVBP)

Health Care Rank #872 of 1016 ⚔️ HELP vs AVBP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AVBP vs. HELP, COLL, ARDX, ANNX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) ranks #872 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #387 by equity capitalization ($786.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, COLL leads on earnings valuation at 12.4x trailing P/E, while COLL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 59.3% gross margin. COLL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with AVBP at 29/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AVBP ACTIVE
ArriVent BioPharma Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -6.77% $786.5M Benchmark Subject
HELP
Helus Pharma Inc.
D+ 54/100 — — — -1.07% $782.5M /help-vs-avbp →
COLL
Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc.
C- 59/100 12.4x 59.3% 85.0% -0.96% $782.3M /coll-vs-avbp →
ARDX
Ardelyx Inc.
E 24/100 — 90.3% -32.7% -2.26% $772.5M /ardx-vs-avbp →
ANNX
Annexon Inc.
E 30/100 — — -35.0% +1.00% $760.2M /annx-vs-avbp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001868279

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$166.3M, operating cash flow of -$160.6M, and free cash flow of -$160.6M (-128.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, AVBP closed FY2025 with $333.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 -$166.3M -$160.6M -$160.6M $333.2M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 -$80.5M -$70.2M -$70.2M $274.9M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 -$69.3M -$55.8M -$55.8M — —

3. AVBP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVBP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AVBP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $14.87 (-6.77% 1D, market cap $786.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AVBP ranks #872 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AVBP compare to HELP and COLL in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AVBP carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, HELP (Helus Pharma Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $782.5M) and COLL (Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 12.4x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $782.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, COLL leads on earnings multiple (12.4x) while COLL leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVBP?

Per AVBP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001868279), ArriVent BioPharma Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$166.3M in net income, and -$160.6M in free cash flow against $333.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AVBP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVBP last traded at $14.87 (-6.77% on volume of 1,194,913 shares), positioning the stock -39.28% below its 50-day simple moving average ($24.49) and -44.78% below its 200-day simple moving average ($26.93). Across its 52-week range of $11.36 to $35.83, AVBP sits at the 14.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($13.01 to $16.73).

AVBP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell AVBP stock right now?

ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) currently earns a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell — SELL) with 29/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is AVBP's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AVBP's 12-month base price target is $12.93 (range $10.09 to $37.62), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 29/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AVBP — ArriVent BioPharma Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:32:52Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Roarable RQD assigns AVBP a score of 29 out of 100, a letter grade of E, and a verdict of "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." Across its five pillars, the fundamental cash engine scores 6/20 (ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -20.42%), indicating that the company is consuming rather than generating cash relative to its market value. Whale 13F flow scores 3/20 and insider conviction scores 3/20, per the Roarable RQD rating, signaling weak institutional and insider support in the source data. Macro regime fit scores 7/20 with a beta of 1.0, meaning the stock's sensitivity to the broader market is average, but the sector-sensitivity component still weighs against it. Forensic balance sheet scores 10/20, reflecting an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.5. For a prospective investor, the practical implication is that upside would have to come from clinical or regulatory outcomes not captured in these cash and balance-sheet metrics, while valuation support from current cash generation is negative. This is an analytical reading of the rating, not personalized advice.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$-177.5M$-166.3MN/A$-160.6M$45.5MN/A
FY 2024$0.0M$-94.3M$-80.5MN/A$-70.2M$74.3MN/A
FY 2023$0.0M$-74.6M$-69.3MN/A$-55.8MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, AVBP reported zero revenue across all three periods, with operating losses widening from $-74.6M (FY 2023) to $-177.5M (FY 2025). Gross, operating, and net margins are each reported as 0% in the market data, and ROIC is -35%. The Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 2/9, per the Roarable RQD rating, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.5. Cash declined from $74.3M in FY 2024 to $45.5M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news wire contains six items, all dated within the last 15 hours of the data timestamp. Three are tagged RISK WATCH and tied to trial outcomes: a Fierce Biotech report describes a phase 3 lung cancer trial as failing, an Investing.com report describes a 60% stock decline after a trial missed its primary endpoint, and a TradingView report describes a 12-month price target cut to $37.55, implying 32% upside. A Seeking Alpha item similarly attributes a plunge to a cancer trial failure. A Benzinga item asks why the stock is tumbling, and a Yahoo Finance Singapore item is a general market-action piece. The butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals. The clinical-trial failure is the dominant catalyst in the source data, though the exact trial details are Not available in source data beyond the headlines.

Open Questions

  • What were the specific endpoints, patient populations, and regulatory implications of the phase 3 lung cancer trial referenced in the news wire?
  • What is the company's cash runway given cash of $45.5M against FY 2025 operating losses of $-177.5M?
  • What are AVBP's product pipeline, partnership, or licensing arrangements, and do any generate revenue?
  • What is the consensus analyst rating and price-target distribution, given the 12-month target cut to $37.55 referenced in the news wire?
  • What do institutional and insider holdings look like, and have any 13F or Form 4 filings occurred?

AVBP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AVBP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AVBP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $14.87?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AVBP 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AVBP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $14.04 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AVBP (E • RQD 29/100) a Buy at $15.95?

Welcome to the AVBP (ArriVent BioPharma Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 29/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.96 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $15.95

Pump the brakes on AVBP — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AVBP, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless ArriVent BioPharma Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $20.42 (+28.0%)
Spot @ $15.95

AVBP cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AVBP, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $15.95 (52-wk range $11.36 - $35.83), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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