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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ASTH / dividends
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Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$36.88 +0.96% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.87

Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.81B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ASTH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Astrana Health Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTH) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $36.88 (+0.96% 1D, market cap $1.81B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASTH ranks #395 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ASTH compare to AMN and NSP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Professional Services), ASTH carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 75.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.6%. By comparison, AMN (AMN Healthcare Services Inc) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $1.82B) and NSP (Insperity Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -8.9%, cap $1.85B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EFOR leads on earnings multiple (13.4x) while ICFI leads on capital efficiency (8.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASTH?
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Per ASTH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001083446), Astrana Health Inc. generated $3.18B in revenue (+56.4% YoY), $24.0M in net income, and $104.5M in free cash flow against $2.22B in total assets and $990.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.87 (-0.02%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 3.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510057
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Cash (13)Whales (9)SEC (12)Macro (13)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target
$54 Bull$37 Base$29 Bear
📬 FREE ASTH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASTH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ASTH SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.3% FCF Margin ($104.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 56% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 46.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
65
Grade C+$37.87+1.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$38.58-4.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$36.94-0.2% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$36.88-0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (65) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ASTH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, ASTH faces multiple-compression risk if 75.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 76x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.00) or 200D SMA ($33.93) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($36.71) toward Bear Floor ($28.63).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASTH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ASTH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
2.23% Total Yield
0.43% Cash ($0.16/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 • FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
14% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (16.7% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $46,850

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $1,045/yr
$11.7K
Yr 1
$13.6K
Yr 2
$15.9K
Yr 3
$18.5K
Yr 4
$21.6K
Yr 5
$25.3K
Yr 6
$29.5K
Yr 7
$34.4K
Yr 8
$40.1K
Yr 9
$46.8K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASTH)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ASTH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ASTH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.43%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $36.62H $36.88L $36.53C $36.88VOL 236.7K
RES: $39.42SUP: $30.73SMA50: $37.00SMA200: $33.93
$53.36$46.06$38.77$31.47$24.18RES $39.42SUP $30.73$36.882026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASTH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ASTH Butterfly Map → + Track ASTH →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +56.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASTH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASTH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASTH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASTH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #395 of 1009 ⚔️ AMN vs ASTH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ASTH vs. AMN, NSP, ICFI, EFOR)

Industry: Professional Services (48 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) ranks #395 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #425 by equity capitalization ($1.81B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EFOR leads on earnings valuation at 13.4x trailing P/E, while ICFI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.1% ROIC and 37.2% gross margin. ICFI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with ASTH at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ASTH ACTIVE
Astrana Health Inc.
D+ 57/100 75.7x — 4.6% +0.96% $1.81B Benchmark Subject
AMN
AMN Healthcare Services Inc
D+ 56/100 — 28.3% -7.2% -2.84% $1.82B /amn-vs-asth →
NSP
Insperity Inc.
E 31/100 — 13.2% -8.9% +9.24% $1.85B /nsp-vs-asth →
ICFI
ICF International Inc.
B 74/100 18.7x 37.2% 8.1% +3.18% $1.71B /icfi-vs-asth →
EFOR
Everforth Inc.
B- 71/100 13.4x 28.9% 6.5% -1.78% $1.57B /efor-vs-asth →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001083446 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) reported GAAP revenue of $3.18B (+56.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.03B , and +129.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $24.0M, operating cash flow of $114.6M, and free cash flow of $104.5M (+136.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASTH closed FY2025 with $2.22B in total assets against $990.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.54, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.18B $24.0M $114.6M $104.5M $2.22B $990.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.03B $50.0M $52.2M $44.2M $1.35B $425.3M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.39B $58.0M $68.2M $68.2M — —

3. ASTH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASTH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Astrana Health Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTH) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $36.88 (+0.96% 1D, market cap $1.81B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ASTH ranks #395 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ASTH compare to AMN and NSP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Professional Services), ASTH carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 75.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.6%. By comparison, AMN (AMN Healthcare Services Inc) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $1.82B) and NSP (Insperity Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -8.9%, cap $1.85B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EFOR leads on earnings multiple (13.4x) while ICFI leads on capital efficiency (8.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASTH?

Per ASTH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001083446), Astrana Health Inc. generated $3.18B in revenue (+56.4% YoY), $24.0M in net income, and $104.5M in free cash flow against $2.22B in total assets and $990.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ASTH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASTH last traded at $36.88 (+0.96% on volume of 275,840 shares), positioning the stock -0.32% below its 50-day simple moving average ($37.00) and +8.69% above its 200-day simple moving average ($33.93). Across its 52-week range of $18.08 to $51.60, ASTH sits at the 56.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.0% ($33.93 to $39.83).

Direct Sub-Reports: ASTH RQD Cockpit ASTH 12M Forecast ASTH Earnings & Move ASTH Dividends & DRIP ASTH Insiders & 13F ASTH Whale Options ASTH Profit Sankey ASTH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ASTH — Astrana Health Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $36.88 (+0.96% 1D, market capitalization $1.81B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 2.5%, and free cash flow yield of 5.75%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.54, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.27x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Astrana Health Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed company classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Professional Services industry. Reported revenue of $3.18B for FY 2025 indicates a substantial operating scale. — for further business-model specifics.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) reported $3.18B in annual revenue (up from $2.03B in FY2024, +56.4% YoY) and $24.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.39B revenue, $58.0M net income) through FY2025, ASTH scaled operating cash flow to $114.6M and free cash flow to $104.5M, backed by $2.22B in total assets against $990.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 57/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 5.75% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $18.08 – $51.60 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 75.7x trailing P/E and 27.3x EV/EBITDA against 2.5% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph records no upstream or downstream links, no sector correlations, and no proprietary signals for ASTH.

  • Key Question #1: Can ASTH sustain or expand its 2.5% operating margin and 4.6% ROIC against Professional Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.18B and free cash flow of $104.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $990.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ASTH's 63.6x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ASTH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ASTH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ASTH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $36.88?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ASTH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ASTH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $48.22 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue scaled from $1.39B in FY 2023 to $3.18B in FY 2025 while the Altman Z-Score of 2.54 and FCF of $104.5M in FY 2025 indicate

Long ASTH at $36.53 targeting $48.22. Revenue scaled from $1.39B in FY 2023 to $3.18B in FY 2025 while the Altman Z-Score of 2.54 and FCF of $104.5M in FY 2025 indicate the business is generating cash.. Institutional whale score is 9/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $18.08 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Fair point on 75.7x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Professional Services. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $29.59 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $36.53

Net income fell from $58.0M in FY 2023 to $24.0M in FY 2025 and a 75.7 trailing P/E sits against a 0.8% net margin and 4.6% ROIC.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short ASTH above $36.53. Net income fell from $58.0M in FY 2023 to $24.0M in FY 2025 and a 75.7 trailing P/E sits against a 0.8% net margin and 4.6% ROIC.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20) and FCF yield (5.75%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $51.60.

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