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Assembly Biosciences Inc. (ASMB) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$19.51 -3.08% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.36

Assembly Biosciences Inc. (ASMB) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 16/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $409.9M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ASMB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Assembly Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: ASMB) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 16/100 at a spot price of $19.51 (-3.08% 1D, market cap $409.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ASMB ranks #1007 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ASMB compare to ALT and PRTA in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ASMB carries a Roarable E (16/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -6.5%. By comparison, ALT (Altimmune Inc.) holds a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -34.7%, cap $396.8M) and PRTA (Prothena Corporation plc) posts a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $434.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ASMB leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ASMB leads on capital efficiency (-6.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASMB?
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Per ASMB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001426800), Assembly Biosciences Inc. generated $72.3M in revenue (+153.5% YoY), -$6.1M in net income, and -$41.2M in free cash flow against $257.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.37 (-0.74%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (16/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-12.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510016
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (3)Whales (3)SEC (5)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-18.9% Base Target
$42 Bull$16 Base$12 Bear
📬 FREE ASMB RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASMB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (16/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ASMB SCORES 16/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+5/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.57 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+4/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
24
Grade E$20.34+4.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
21
Grade E$21.19-4.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
19
Grade E$20.30-3.9% Next Q
Current
16
Grade E$19.51-12.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (24) → E (16)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ASMB Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ASMB currently carries a cautious 16/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($25.57) and Max Pain ($20.49) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $41.70.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASMB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ASMB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 18%NO 82%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±10.2%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ASMB)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ASMB.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASMB)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ASMB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ASMB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -29.87%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $20.86H $20.86L $19.51C $19.51VOL 136.9K
RES: $39.58SUP: $18.70SMA50: $25.57SMA200: $27.11
$38.25$33.11$27.98$22.84$17.71RES $39.58SUP $18.70$19.512026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASMB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ASMB Butterfly Map → + Track ASMB →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +153.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASMB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASMB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASMB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASMB)

Health Care Rank #1007 of 1015 ⚔️ ALT vs ASMB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ASMB vs. ALT, PRTA, AVTX, BLSM)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Assembly Biosciences Inc. (ASMB) ranks #1007 by composite RQD confidence (16/100, grade E) and #469 by equity capitalization ($409.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ASMB leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ASMB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -6.5% ROIC and — gross margin. BLSM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 42/100 (D-) compared with ASMB at 16/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ASMB ACTIVE
Assembly Biosciences Inc.
E 16/100 — — -6.5% -3.08% $409.9M Benchmark Subject
ALT
Altimmune Inc.
E 21/100 — — -34.7% -0.98% $396.8M /alt-vs-asmb →
PRTA
Prothena Corporation plc
E 23/100 — — -35.0% -2.12% $434.8M /prta-vs-asmb →
AVTX
Avalo Therapeutics Inc.
E 17/100 — — -35.0% +2.09% $384.5M /avtx-vs-asmb →
BLSM
BlossomHill Therapeutics Inc.
D- 42/100 — — — -9.67% $437.0M /blsm-vs-asmb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001426800 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Assembly Biosciences Inc. (ASMB) reported GAAP revenue of $72.3M (+153.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $28.5M , and -60.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$6.1M, operating cash flow of -$41.1M, and free cash flow of -$41.2M (+19.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASMB closed FY2025 with $257.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.57, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $72.3M -$6.1M -$41.1M -$41.2M $257.6M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $28.5M -$40.2M -$51.1M -$51.1M $119.2M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $181.0M -$61.2M $22.7M $22.7M — —

3. ASMB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASMB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Assembly Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: ASMB) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 16/100 at a spot price of $19.51 (-3.08% 1D, market cap $409.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ASMB ranks #1007 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ASMB compare to ALT and PRTA in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ASMB carries a Roarable E (16/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -6.5%. By comparison, ALT (Altimmune Inc.) holds a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -34.7%, cap $396.8M) and PRTA (Prothena Corporation plc) posts a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $434.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ASMB leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ASMB leads on capital efficiency (-6.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASMB?

Per ASMB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001426800), Assembly Biosciences Inc. generated $72.3M in revenue (+153.5% YoY), -$6.1M in net income, and -$41.2M in free cash flow against $257.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ASMB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASMB last traded at $19.51 (-3.08% on volume of 262,728 shares), positioning the stock -23.70% below its 50-day simple moving average ($25.57) and -28.03% below its 200-day simple moving average ($27.11). Across its 52-week range of $19.30 to $39.71, ASMB sits at the 1.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.2% ($17.52 to $21.50).

Direct Sub-Reports: ASMB RQD Cockpit ASMB 12M Forecast ASMB Earnings & Move ASMB Dividends & DRIP ASMB Insiders & 13F ASMB Whale Options ASMB Profit Sankey ASMB News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 16/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ASMB — Assembly Biosciences Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Assembly Biosciences Inc. (ASMB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 16/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $19.51 (-3.08% 1D, market capitalization $409.9M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -6.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -16.8%, and free cash flow yield of -9.69%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.57, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Assembly Biosciences Inc. (ASMB) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry..4B. Per the news wire, its disclosed development focus includes an oral NTCP inhibitor, ABI-6250, being studied in chronic hepatitis delta virus (HDV). The sources do not describe its customers or detail how it earns revenue beyond reported figures.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Assembly Biosciences Inc. (ASMB) reported $72.3M in annual revenue (up from $28.5M in FY2024, +153.5% YoY) and -$6.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($181.0M revenue, -$61.2M net income) through FY2025, ASMB scaled operating cash flow to -$41.1M and free cash flow to -$41.2M, backed by $257.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 16/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -9.69% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $19.30 – $39.71 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -16.8% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The sources therefore do not identify upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations. A prospective investor should note that the absence of mapped links means second-order ripple effects cannot be traced from the provided data; the only observable linkage is the shared Health Care sector and Biotechnology industry classification.

  • Key Question #1: Can ASMB sustain or expand its -16.8% operating margin and -6.5% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $72.3M and free cash flow of -$41.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ASMB's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ASMB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Assembly Biosciences Inc. (ASMB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ASMB Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ASMB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $19.51?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ASMB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ASMB:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $26.37 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The Phase 2 dosing of ABI-6250 in chronic HDV has begun, and FY 2025 revenue reached $72.3M, up from $28.5M in FY 2024.

Don't sleep on ASMB's setup in Health Care. The Phase 2 dosing of ABI-6250 in chronic HDV has begun, and FY 2025 revenue reached $72.3M, up from $28.5M in FY 2024.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (16/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — ASMB's 5/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $17.11 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $20.13

Free cash flow was -$41.2M in FY 2025 and ROIC is -6.5%, with the RQD cash engine scoring just 2 of 20.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ASMB: Free cash flow was -$41.2M in FY 2025 and ROIC is -6.5%, with the RQD cash engine scoring just 2 of 20.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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