ARKO Corp. (ARKO) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$3.79 +0.27% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.78

ARKO Corp. (ARKO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $425.2M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ARKO Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARKO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, ARKO Corp. (NASDAQ: ARKO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $3.79 (+0.27% 1D, market cap $425.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, ARKO ranks #83 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARKO compare to DNUT and VLGEA in the Consumer Staples sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), ARKO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.6%. By comparison, DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $568.2M) and VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $633.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARKO?
β–Ό

Per ARKO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001823794), ARKO Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $22.7M in net income, and $65.3M in free cash flow against $3.53B in total assets and $875.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.78 (-0.14%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) β€’ 1.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 Β· D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D
025507510048
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ Β· Rk D-
Cash (13)Whales (3)SEC (11)Macro (6)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
$9 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE ARKO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARKO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY ARKO SCORES 48/100 (D) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.6% FCF Margin ($65.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$4.10-1.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
53
Grade C-$4.03-4.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$3.85-1.6% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$3.79-5.6% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (56) β†’ D (48)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARKO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While ARKO currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.23) and Max Pain ($3.98) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.20.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARKOβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œARKO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
5.01% Total Yield
3.21% Cash ($0.12/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 β€’ FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
14% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (10% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $25,937

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $1,299/yr
$11.0K
Yr 1
$12.1K
Yr 2
$13.3K
Yr 3
$14.6K
Yr 4
$16.1K
Yr 5
$17.7K
Yr 6
$19.5K
Yr 7
$21.4K
Yr 8
$23.6K
Yr 9
$25.9K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARKO)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of ARKO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ARKO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -42.75%β–² RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $3.78H $3.79L $3.78C $3.79VOL 1.43M
RES: $3.17SUP: $3.56SMA50: $4.23SMA200: $5.98
$9.12$7.63$6.13$4.64$3.15RES $3.17SUP $3.56$3.792026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARKO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARKO today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARKO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARKO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARKO)

Consumer Staples Rank #83 of 146 βš”οΈ DNUT vs ARKO Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (ARKO vs. DNUT, VLGEA, NGVC, GO)

Industry: Food Chains (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ARKO Corp. (ARKO) ranks #83 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #85 by equity capitalization ($425.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VLGEA leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while NGVC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. VLGEA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with ARKO at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ARKO ACTIVE
ARKO Corp.
D 48/100 18.6x β€” 9.6% +0.27% $425.2M Benchmark Subject
DNUT
Krispy Kreme Inc.
E 26/100 β€” β€” -24.4% +2.34% $568.2M /dnut-vs-arko β†’
VLGEA
Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)
B 73/100 11.2x 28.6% 14.0% +0.40% $633.3M /vlgea-vs-arko β†’
NGVC
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc.
C 63/100 14.1x 29.9% 24.9% +0.74% $661.2M /ngvc-vs-arko β†’
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
D+ 57/100 β€” 30.3% -12.6% +0.39% $1.28B /go-vs-arko β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001823794

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ARKO Corp. (ARKO) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $22.7M, operating cash flow of $192.6M, and free cash flow of $65.3M (-39.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARKO closed FY2025 with $3.53B in total assets against $875.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 $22.7M $192.6M $65.3M $3.53B $875.5M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $20.8M $221.9M $107.9M $3.62B $868.1M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 $34.4M $136.1M $136.1M β€” β€”

3. ARKO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARKO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, ARKO Corp. (NASDAQ: ARKO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $3.79 (+0.27% 1D, market cap $425.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, ARKO ranks #83 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARKO compare to DNUT and VLGEA in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), ARKO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 9.6%. By comparison, DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $568.2M) and VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $633.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARKO?

Per ARKO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001823794), ARKO Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $22.7M in net income, and $65.3M in free cash flow against $3.53B in total assets and $875.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARKO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARKO last traded at $3.79 (+0.27% on volume of 1,431,002 shares), positioning the stock -10.40% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.23) and -36.62% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.98). Across its 52-week range of $3.61 to $8.76, ARKO sits at the 3.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±8.0% ($3.49 to $4.09).

ARKO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

Does ARKO pay a dividend and is it safe?

ARKO Corp. (ARKO) offers a 3.21% cash dividend yield ($0.12 annualized) and 5.01% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as FORTRESS PAYOUT.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 48/100 (D) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ARKO β€” ARKO Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:36:41Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ARKO scores 48 out of 100, earning a D grade and the verdict "Roarable Sell β€” Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 (ROIC 9.6%; FCF yield 15.4%), Whale 13F Flow at 3/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 15/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 6/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 11/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 3.28). The weakest pillar is institutional flow, and the balance sheet carries meaningful leverage per the Debt/Equity reading. A prospective investor would weigh the strong cash-yield metrics against weak institutional support and elevated leverage. Upside depends on the FCF yield persisting; valuation tradeoffs include a trailing P/E of 18.6 set against an EV/EBITDA of 4.7, which the source does not explain further.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
3.78$424.1M18.617.34.70.23.21%1.0$3.61 - $8.769.6%

Business

ARKO Corp. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Staples sector, Food Chains industry, per the company profile. Not available in source data for products sold, customer base, or revenue model. The profile identifies a market capitalization of $0.4B.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$102.3M$22.7MN/A$65.3M$305.0M$875.5M
FY 2024$0.0M$94.0M$20.8MN/A$107.9M$261.8M$868.1M
FY 2023$0.0M$118.0M$34.4MN/A$136.1MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, operating income and net income are reported in each period, while revenue is listed as $0.0M and margin percentages are listed as 0% in the market data, which the source does not reconcile. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 9.6%. Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 per the forensic balance sheet pillar. Debt/Equity is 3.28, and reported debt rose from $868.1M to $875.5M between FY 2024 and FY 2025 while cash rose from $261.8M to $305.0M. FCF declined across the three reported periods.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, six items reference ARKO. Headlines are from Yahoo! Finance Canada, Yahoo Finance, TradingView, MarketBeat, and IDNFinancials. Two items are tagged CATALYST and four are tagged MARKET WIRE. One headline reports the stock sinking while the market gains, and another reports shares down 6.8%. A separate item reports a founder purchase of shares at the lowest level since the start of the year. Summaries are generic and do not state fundamental drivers. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals are recorded.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain status is NONE and no butterfly links are recorded. Not available in source data for upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or 2nd-order bottlenecks.

Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership

Per the analyst data, no entries are recorded. Not available in source data for consensus rating or price targets. Per the holders section, no entries are recorded. Not available in source data for SEC Form 4 insider, 13F whale, or Congressional trades. The insider conviction pillar of the RQD rating scores 15/20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, but the underlying trade records are not provided.

Open Questions

  • What are the revenue figures, given that the financials list $0.0M while operating income and net income are reported?
  • What explains the 0% gross, operating, and net margin entries alongside positive net income?
  • What is the identity and composition of the institutional and insider holders behind the RQD flow pillars?
  • What drove the year-over-year decline in FCF from $136.1M to $65.3M?
  • What are the terms and maturity profile of the $875.5M debt load?

ARKO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ARKO Corp. (ARKO) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to ARKO Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARKO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $3.79?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARKO 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ARKO:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $4.08 (+7.9%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ARKO (D β€’ RQD 48/100) a Buy at $3.78?

Welcome to the ARKO (ARKO Corp.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 48/100 (Roarable Sell β€” Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Food Chains. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.06 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $3.78

Pump the brakes on ARKO β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ARKO, but look at what you are paying: 18.6x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless ARKO Corp. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.42 (+16.9%)
Spot @ $3.78

ARKO cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ARKO, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Food Chains and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $3.78 (52-wk range $3.61 - $8.76), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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