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American Public Education Inc. (APEI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$41.59 +2.51% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $41.70

American Public Education Inc. (APEI) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $742.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on APEI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is APEI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, American Public Education Inc. (NASDAQ: APEI) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $41.59 (+2.51% 1D, market cap $742.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, APEI ranks #15 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does APEI compare to LINC and PXED in the Real Estate sector?
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Within the Real Estate sector (Other Consumer Services), APEI carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.7x, gross margin of 54.2%, and ROIC of 17.6%. By comparison, LINC (Lincoln Educational Services Corporation) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E 35.1x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $656.0M) and PXED (Phoenix Education Partners Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $862.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, APEI leads on earnings multiple (25.7x) while APEI leads on capital efficiency (17.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for APEI?
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Per APEI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001201792), American Public Education Inc. generated $648.9M in revenue (+3.9% YoY), $31.6M in net income, and $46.1M in free cash flow against $521.4M in total assets and $94.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (54.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $41.70 (+0.26%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 7.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-
Cash (15)Whales (4)SEC (16)Macro (12)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
$65 Bull$43 Base$33 Bear
📬 FREE APEI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for APEI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY APEI SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.08 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
71
Grade B$48.43+0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
68
Grade B-$48.56-4.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$46.17-9.9% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$41.59+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (71) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the APEI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, APEI faces multiple-compression risk if 25.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 51.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($45.23) or 200D SMA ($49.76) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($42.53) toward Bear Floor ($33.17).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $APEI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “APEI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your APEI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $41.59: 240.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $33.17
$7,975
$-2,025 (-20.2%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $42.53
$10,226
+$226 (+2.3%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $64.67
$15,549
+$5,549 (+55.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$4474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$6169%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$3858%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (APEI Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
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APEI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -27.72%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $44.30H $44.30L $40.57C $41.59VOL 323.2K
RES: $51.16SUP: $36.88SMA50: $45.23SMA200: $49.76
$61.35$55.58$49.81$44.04$38.27RES $51.16SUP $36.88$41.592026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

APEI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 APEI Butterfly Map → + Track APEI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
19.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on APEI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for APEI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for APEI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (APEI)

Real Estate Rank #15 of 51 ⚔️ LINC vs APEI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Real Estate Peer Comparison (APEI vs. LINC, PXED, AFYA, GOTU)

Industry: Other Consumer Services (73 Tracked Issuers)

Across 51 tracked Real Estate securities in the Roarable RQD universe, American Public Education Inc. (APEI) ranks #15 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #19 by equity capitalization ($742.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, APEI leads on earnings valuation at 25.7x trailing P/E, while APEI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.6% ROIC and 54.2% gross margin. APEI currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
APEI ACTIVE
American Public Education Inc.
C 63/100 25.7x 54.2% 17.6% +2.51% $742.5M Benchmark Subject
LINC
Lincoln Educational Services Corporation
D- 42/100 35.1x 60.4% 14.0% -2.68% $656.0M /linc-vs-apei →
PXED
Phoenix Education Partners Inc.
D- 43/100 — — — -0.08% $862.6M /pxed-vs-apei →
AFYA
Afya Limited (Class A)
D 46/100 — — — +1.82% $979.4M /afya-vs-apei →
GOTU
Gaotu Techedu Inc.
D 49/100 — 67.4% -35.0% -3.54% $538.9M /gotu-vs-apei →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001201792 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), American Public Education Inc. (APEI) reported GAAP revenue of $648.9M (+3.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $624.6M , and +8.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $31.6M, operating cash flow of $62.0M, and free cash flow of $46.1M (+65.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, APEI closed FY2025 with $521.4M in total assets against $94.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.08, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $648.9M $31.6M $62.0M $46.1M $521.4M $94.7M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $624.6M $16.1M $48.9M $27.8M $570.1M $93.4M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $600.5M -$47.3M $45.5M $45.5M — —

3. APEI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is APEI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, American Public Education Inc. (NASDAQ: APEI) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $41.59 (+2.51% 1D, market cap $742.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, APEI ranks #15 in composite RQD confidence.

How does APEI compare to LINC and PXED in the Real Estate sector?

Within the Real Estate sector (Other Consumer Services), APEI carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.7x, gross margin of 54.2%, and ROIC of 17.6%. By comparison, LINC (Lincoln Educational Services Corporation) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E 35.1x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $656.0M) and PXED (Phoenix Education Partners Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $862.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, APEI leads on earnings multiple (25.7x) while APEI leads on capital efficiency (17.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for APEI?

Per APEI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001201792), American Public Education Inc. generated $648.9M in revenue (+3.9% YoY), $31.6M in net income, and $46.1M in free cash flow against $521.4M in total assets and $94.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (54.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is APEI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

APEI last traded at $41.59 (+2.51% on volume of 305,782 shares), positioning the stock -8.05% below its 50-day simple moving average ($45.23) and -16.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($49.76). Across its 52-week range of $30.20 to $61.59, APEI sits at the 36.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.3% ($38.55 to $44.63).

Direct Sub-Reports: APEI RQD Cockpit APEI 12M Forecast APEI Earnings & Move APEI Dividends & DRIP APEI Insiders & 13F APEI Whale Options APEI Profit Sankey APEI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

APEI — American Public Education Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

American Public Education Inc. (APEI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $41.59 (+2.51% 1D, market capitalization $742.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 17.6%, gross margin of 54.2%, operating margin of 7.4%, and free cash flow yield of 5.69%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.08, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.32x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

American Public Education Inc. (APEI) is listed on NASDAQ and classified under the Real Estate sector and Other Consumer Services industry. Per the market data, gross margin is 54.2%, operating margin 7.4%, and net margin 4.9%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), American Public Education Inc. (APEI) reported $648.9M in annual revenue (up from $624.6M in FY2024, +3.9% YoY) and $31.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($600.5M revenue, -$47.3M net income) through FY2025, APEI scaled operating cash flow to $62.0M and free cash flow to $46.1M, backed by $521.4M in total assets against $94.7M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Strong cash generator (54.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $30.20 – $61.59 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 25.7x trailing P/E and 11.9x EV/EBITDA against 7.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream dependencies: — Downstream dependencies: — Sector correlations: — beyond the Real Estate sector and Other Consumer Services industry classification. Second-order bottlenecks: — The most relevant near-term ripple visible in the data is the scheduled third-quarter 2026 earnings call, which the source identifies as a checkpoint for the operating leverage and earnings-estimate narrative.

  • Key Question #1: Can APEI sustain or expand its 7.4% operating margin and 17.6% ROIC against Other Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $648.9M and free cash flow of $46.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $94.7M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is APEI's 23.9x forward P/E multiple to Real Estate capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

APEI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for American Public Education Inc. (APEI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to APEI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

APEI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $41.59?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON APEI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on APEI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $52.74 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Financially sound operator with 17.6% ROIC, 5.69% FCF yield, Altman Z 4.08 and Piotroski F 8/9 supporting upside if cash generation hol

Here is why I am bullish on APEI here at $40.57: Financially sound operator with 17.6% ROIC, 5.69% FCF yield, Altman Z 4.08 and Piotroski F 8/9 supporting upside if cash generation holds.. Compare APEI's 7.4% operating margin and 17.6% ROIC against the rest of Other Consumer Services. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $38.54 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Fair point on 25.7x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Other Consumer Services. If gross margin (54.2%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $31.24 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $40.57

Valuation at 25.7x trailing and 23.9x forward earnings with a 6/20 whale 13F flow pillar indicates weak institutional conviction and li

I respect the product at American Public Education Inc., but the stock at $40.57 is a different story. Valuation at 25.7x trailing and 23.9x forward earnings with a 6/20 whale 13F flow pillar indicates weak institutional conviction and limited margin for error.. FCF yield is 5.69% and RQD sits at 63/100 (C) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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