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Stock Ratings / Financials / AMH / forecast
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American Homes 4 Rent Common (AMH) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$31.60 +0.13% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.55

American Homes 4 Rent Common (AMH) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $11.35B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AMH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AMH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, American Homes 4 Rent Common (NYSE: AMH) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $31.60 (+0.13% 1D, market cap $11.35B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AMH ranks #327 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AMH compare to GLPI and UDR in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), AMH carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.8%. By comparison, GLPI (Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 14.8%, cap $11.34B) and UDR (UDR Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 30.1x, ROIC 7.3%, cap $11.41B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGNC leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while GLPI leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMH?
▼

Per AMH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001562401), American Homes 4 Rent Common generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $864.3M in free cash flow against $13.24B in total assets and $2.49B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.55 (-0.17%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 21.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510062
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C-
Cash (13)Whales (10)SEC (15)Macro (9)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
$38 Bull$32 Base$25 Bear
📬 FREE AMH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AMH SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (53.5) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
54
Grade C-$30.64+1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
57
Grade C$30.94+0.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
59
Grade C$31.20+1.3% Next Q
Current
62
Grade C$31.60+0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AMH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, AMH faces multiple-compression risk if 32.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($31.47) or 200D SMA ($31.61) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($32.17) toward Bear Floor ($25.09).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AMH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AMH Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $31.60: 316.5 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $25.09
$7,940
$-2,060 (-20.6%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $32.17
$10,180
+$180 (+1.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $37.96
$12,013
+$2,013 (+20.1%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$3374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$3669%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$2958%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AMH Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
AMH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.19%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $31.56H $31.60L $31.56C $31.60VOL 3.76M
RES: $35.40SUP: $29.58SMA50: $31.47SMA200: $31.61
$35.46$33.85$32.23$30.62$29.01RES $35.40SUP $29.58$31.602026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AMH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AMH Butterfly Map → + Track AMH →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMH)

Financials Rank #327 of 1096 ⚔️ GLPI vs AMH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AMH vs. GLPI, UDR, ELS, AGNC)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, American Homes 4 Rent Common (AMH) ranks #327 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #170 by equity capitalization ($11.35B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AGNC leads on earnings valuation at 6.4x trailing P/E, while GLPI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.8% ROIC and — gross margin. GLPI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with AMH at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AMH ACTIVE
American Homes 4 Rent Common
C 62/100 32.8x — 3.8% +0.13% $11.35B Benchmark Subject
GLPI
Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc.
C+ 66/100 — — 14.8% -1.29% $11.34B /glpi-vs-amh →
UDR
UDR Inc.
C 63/100 30.1x — 7.3% +0.28% $11.41B /udr-vs-amh →
ELS
Equity Lifestyle Properties Inc.
C 62/100 28.5x — 11.4% +0.31% $11.50B /els-vs-amh →
AGNC
AGNC Investment Corp.
D+ 52/100 6.4x — 2.9% -2.04% $11.02B /agnc-vs-amh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001562401

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), American Homes 4 Rent Common (AMH) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $864.3M, and free cash flow of $864.3M (+6.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMH closed FY2025 with $13.24B in total assets against $2.49B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 $0 $864.3M $864.3M $13.24B $2.49B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $0 $811.5M $811.5M $13.38B $2.49B

3. AMH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AMH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, American Homes 4 Rent Common (NYSE: AMH) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $31.60 (+0.13% 1D, market cap $11.35B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AMH ranks #327 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AMH compare to GLPI and UDR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), AMH carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.8%. By comparison, GLPI (Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 14.8%, cap $11.34B) and UDR (UDR Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 30.1x, ROIC 7.3%, cap $11.41B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGNC leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while GLPI leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMH?

Per AMH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001562401), American Homes 4 Rent Common generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $864.3M in free cash flow against $13.24B in total assets and $2.49B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AMH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AMH last traded at $31.60 (+0.13% on volume of 3,757,407 shares), positioning the stock +0.41% above its 50-day simple moving average ($31.47) and -0.03% below its 200-day simple moving average ($31.61). Across its 52-week range of $27.22 to $35.07, AMH sits at the 55.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.4% ($30.53 to $32.67).

AMH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is AMH's 12-month stock price target?

American Homes 4 Rent Common (AMH) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $32.17 (+1.8% from $31.60), with a bull-case target of $37.96 and a bear-case floor of $25.09.

Is AMH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates AMH C (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 62/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: AMH RQD Cockpit AMH 12M Forecast AMH Earnings & Move AMH Dividends & DRIP AMH Insiders & 13F AMH Whale Options AMH Profit Sankey AMH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 62/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AMH — American Homes 4 Rent Common: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:15:55Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AMH carries an RQD score of 62, a letter grade of C, and the verdict label "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." Across the five pillars, the fundamental cash engine scores 13 of 20, reflecting an ROIC of 3.8% and an FCF yield of 6.36%. The whale/13F flow pillar scores 10 of 20, pointing to institutional accumulation and options positioning that the rating characterizes as middling. Insider conviction scores 15 of 20, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The macro regime fit pillar scores 9 of 20, with a beta of 0.92 and a sector sensitivity the rating treats as a drag. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 15 of 20, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the pattern is a balanced profile: the balance sheet and insider signals are relatively supportive, while the macro regime fit and institutional flow are weaker. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data: a trailing P/E of 32.8 and EV/EBITDA of 24 sit against a 3.94% dividend yield and a 6.36% FCF yield. The rating's "Hold" label suggests the risk-reward is roughly balanced rather than skewed in either direction at this price.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
31.56$11.34B32.830.5240.963.94%0.92$27.22 - $35.073.8%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025 (filed 2025-12-31)$0.0M$0.0M$0.0MN/A$864.3M$108.5M$2489.7M
FY 2024 (filed 2024-12-31)$0.0M$0.0M$0.0MN/A$811.5M$199.4M$2489.6M

Per the SEC financials, reported revenue, operating income, net income, and EPS are shown as $0.0M or N/A for both periods, so profitability trends from these line items cannot be assessed. Per the market data, the operating margin is 13.9%, the net margin is 10.9%, and the gross margin is 0%, with ROIC at 3.8%. The RQD rating cites an Altman Z-Score of 2.5 and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 as forensic indicators. Per the SEC financials, FCF rose from $811.5M to $864.3M while cash declined from $199.4M to $108.5M, and debt was essentially flat at $2489.7M versus $2489.6M.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's revenue, operating income, and net income figures, given that the reported financials show $0.0M for these line items?
  • What drives the gap between the 0% gross margin and the 13.9% operating margin, and how is the margin structure reported?
  • What caused cash to decline from $199.4M to $108.5M while FCF increased, and how was that cash deployed?
  • What catalysts or risk events could move the stock within the 52-week range of $27.22 to $35.07?
  • How does the institutional, insider, and Congressional holder activity compare to peers, given that no holder data is provided?

AMH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for American Homes 4 Rent Common (AMH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AMH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AMH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $31.60?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AMH 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AMH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $34.08 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AMH (C • RQD 62/100) a Buy at $31.56?

Welcome to the AMH (American Homes 4 Rent Common) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 62/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Real Estate Investment Trusts. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (32.8x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $24.62 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $31.56

Pump the brakes on AMH — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AMH, but look at what you are paying: 32.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless American Homes 4 Rent Common expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $39.45 (+25.0%)
Spot @ $31.56

AMH cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AMH, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Real Estate Investment Trusts and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $31.56 (52-wk range $27.22 - $35.07), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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