Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$9.56 -1.34% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.52

Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.40B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AGRO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE: AGRO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $9.56 (-1.34% 1D, market cap $1.40B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, AGRO ranks #80 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AGRO compare to DMC and DOLE in the Consumer Staples sector?
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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Farming/Seeds/Milling), AGRO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, DMC (Del Monte Corporation) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 14.0x, ROIC 5.5%, cap $1.29B) and DOLE (Dole plc) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 24.2x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $1.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DMC leads on earnings multiple (14.0x) while DOLE leads on capital efficiency (9.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGRO?
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For Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #80 in Consumer Staples, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.52 (-0.43%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510048
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (4)SEC (13)Macro (10)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
$17 Bull$9 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE AGRO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AGRO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AGRO SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 1% FCF Margin ($39.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$10.54-9.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
53
Grade C-$9.56+2.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$9.81-2.5% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$9.56-5.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AGRO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AGRO currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.69) and Max Pain ($10.04) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $16.68.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AGRO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AGRO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

AGRO Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (AGRO)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on AGRO. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AGRO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AGRO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AGRO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -37.02%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $9.71H $9.71L $9.56C $9.56VOL 481.1K
RES: $14.24SUP: $9.42SMA50: $10.69SMA200: $11.04
$15.70$13.85$12.00$10.15$8.31RES $14.24SUP $9.42$9.562026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AGRO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGRO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGRO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AGRO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AGRO)

Consumer Staples Rank #80 of 146 ⚔️ DMC vs AGRO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (AGRO vs. DMC, DOLE, BV, AVO)

Industry: Farming/Seeds/Milling (25 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) ranks #80 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #63 by equity capitalization ($1.40B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DMC leads on earnings valuation at 14.0x trailing P/E, while DOLE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.3% ROIC and 7.8% gross margin. DMC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with AGRO at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AGRO ACTIVE
Adecoagro S.A.
D 48/100 — — — -1.34% $1.40B Benchmark Subject
DMC
Del Monte Corporation
D+ 56/100 14.0x 9.2% 5.5% -1.13% $1.29B /dmc-vs-agro →
DOLE
Dole plc
D 48/100 24.2x 7.8% 9.3% +1.84% $1.23B /dole-vs-agro →
BV
BrightView Holdings Inc.
D 48/100 19.2x 23.3% 5.3% +2.89% $1.09B /bv-vs-agro →
AVO
Mission Produce Inc.
D+ 55/100 27.0x 11.6% 8.1% -0.26% $1.01B /avo-vs-agro →

2. AGRO Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) operates in Farming/Seeds/Milling (Consumer Staples) with an equity capitalization of $1.40B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. AGRO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AGRO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE: AGRO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $9.56 (-1.34% 1D, market cap $1.40B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, AGRO ranks #80 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AGRO compare to DMC and DOLE in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Farming/Seeds/Milling), AGRO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, DMC (Del Monte Corporation) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 14.0x, ROIC 5.5%, cap $1.29B) and DOLE (Dole plc) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 24.2x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $1.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DMC leads on earnings multiple (14.0x) while DOLE leads on capital efficiency (9.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGRO?

For Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #80 in Consumer Staples, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AGRO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AGRO last traded at $9.56 (-1.34% on volume of 461,009 shares), positioning the stock -10.57% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.69) and -13.41% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.04). Across its 52-week range of $6.89 to $15.89, AGRO sits at the 29.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($8.87 to $10.25).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AGRO — Adecoagro S.A.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:13:42Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

AGRO carries an RQD Score of 48, letter grade D, labeled "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 12 / 20. ROIC is 0% and FCF yield is 0%. For a prospective investor, the cash-generation case is weak on the rating's own inputs: the company is not earning a return on invested capital in the source data, and it is not producing free cash flow relative to its price.
  • Whale / 13F Flow: 4 / 20. The rating's label reads "Institutional accumulation & options positioning," and this is the lowest pillar. The source data contains no holder records (see Analyst View), so the rating's low score is not explained by any detail in the supplied holder data. Investors should treat this pillar as a negative signal without underlying detail available here.
  • Insider Conviction: 9 / 20. Per the rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The supplied holder data does not contain the underlying trades, so the score cannot be traced to specific transactions.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 10 / 20. Per the rating, beta is 1.0 and the score reflects sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is expected to move in line with the broad market; the rating treats this as only a moderately favorable regime fit.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 13 / 20. Per the rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. This is the strongest pillar, indicating a balance sheet that is not the primary source of concern in this rating.

Taken together, the rating's implications for a prospective investor are: the balance sheet is comparatively sound, but returns and cash generation are at zero on the supplied metrics, and both institutional and insider signals score poorly. The valuation tradeoff is that the stock trades at $9.71 with no supplied earnings multiple to anchor it. This is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Adecoagro S.A. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Staples sector and the Farming/Seeds/Milling industry. The profile identifies the company as operating in farming, seeds, and milling, with a market capitalization of $1.4B.

And market data, profitability is reported at 0% across gross margin, operating margin, net margin, and ROIC, and FCF yield is 0%. Per the rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.5. The source data contains no financial statements, so these ratios cannot be traced to reported periods. The balance-sheet scores suggest moderate financial health, while the zero margins and returns indicate the income statement is not contributing returns on the supplied metrics.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case: The balance-sheet pillar scores 13/20 with Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 6/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5, the strongest component of the rating. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 (ROIC —, FCF yield —) and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $6.89 – $15.89 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: ROIC and FCF yield are both 0% and the whale-flow pillar scores only 4/20, the weakest signal in the rating. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the supplied material.

  • Key Question #1: What is the consensus analyst rating and price target, given the analyst data section is empty?
  • Key Question #2: Which institutions hold AGRO and what changed in 13F filings, given the holders section is empty?
  • Key Question #3: What is the dividend amount and payout schedule behind the cash dividend headlines, given the market data shows a 0% yield?

AGRO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AGRO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AGRO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.56?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AGRO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AGRO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.69 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The balance-sheet pillar scores 13/20 with Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 6/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5, the strongest component of the rating.

Don't sleep on AGRO's setup in Consumer Staples. The balance-sheet pillar scores 13/20 with Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 6/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5, the strongest component of the rating.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (48/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Shorting a 4/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $9.69 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Staples.

FO ForensicBear 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.75 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $9.69

ROIC and FCF yield are both 0% and the whale-flow pillar scores only 4/20, the weakest signal in the rating.

I respect the product at Adecoagro S.A., but the stock at $9.69 is a different story. ROIC and FCF yield are both 0% and the whale-flow pillar scores only 4/20, the weakest signal in the rating.. FCF yield is 0.0% and RQD sits at 48/100 (D) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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