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Stock Ratings / Health Care / AGIO / forecast
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Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$29.95 -1.96% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.79

Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.82B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AGIO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AGIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AGIO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $29.95 (-1.96% 1D, market cap $1.82B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AGIO ranks #590 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AGIO compare to ADRX and ZBIO in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AGIO carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 88.3%, and ROIC of -33.8%. By comparison, ADRX (ADARx Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.82B) and ZBIO (Zenas BioPharma Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.85B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGIO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AGIO leads on capital efficiency (-33.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGIO?
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Per AGIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001439222), Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $54.0M in revenue (+48.0% YoY), -$413.0M in net income, and -$377.3M in free cash flow against $1.30B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.79 (-0.54%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510035
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (9)Whales (6)SEC (14)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.4% Base Target
$48 Bull$27 Base$21 Bear
📬 FREE AGIO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AGIO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AGIO SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (40% of score)

Altman Z-Score 11.84 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 88.3% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
43
Grade D$30.21+21.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
40
Grade D$36.64+3.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
38
Grade E$38.03-21.2% Next Q
Current
35
Grade D-$29.95-8.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (43) → D- (35)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AGIO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AGIO currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($33.67) and Max Pain ($31.45) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $48.30.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AGIO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AGIO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AGIO Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $29.95: 333.9 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $20.94
$6,992
$-3,008 (-30.1%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $26.85
$8,965
$-1,035 (-10.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $48.30
$16,127
+$6,127 (+61.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$2874%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$4569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$2458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AGIO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AGIO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AGIO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.67%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $37.23H $37.23L $29.95C $29.95VOL 3.09M
RES: $38.85SUP: $29.82SMA50: $33.67SMA200: $31.76
$45.33$40.21$35.09$29.97$24.85RES $38.85SUP $29.82$29.952026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AGIO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AGIO Butterfly Map → + Track AGIO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +48.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGIO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGIO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AGIO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AGIO)

Health Care Rank #590 of 1016 ⚔️ ADRX vs AGIO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AGIO vs. ADRX, ZBIO, GENB, TRAX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) ranks #590 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #272 by equity capitalization ($1.82B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AGIO leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while AGIO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -33.8% ROIC and 88.3% gross margin. GENB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with AGIO at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AGIO ACTIVE
Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D- 35/100 — 88.3% -33.8% -1.96% $1.82B Benchmark Subject
ADRX
ADARx Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D 48/100 — — — -7.29% $1.82B /adrx-vs-agio →
ZBIO
Zenas BioPharma Inc.
D- 38/100 — — -35.0% -2.71% $1.85B /zbio-vs-agio →
GENB
Generate Biomedicines Inc.
D+ 52/100 — — — -8.64% $1.86B /genb-vs-agio →
TRAX
First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc.
D 44/100 — — -35.0% -0.07% $1.89B /trax-vs-agio →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001439222

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) reported GAAP revenue of $54.0M (+48.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $36.5M , and +101.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$413.0M, operating cash flow of -$373.0M, and free cash flow of -$377.3M (+3.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, AGIO closed FY2025 with $1.30B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 11.84, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $54.0M -$413.0M -$373.0M -$377.3M $1.30B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $36.5M $674.0M -$389.8M -$391.5M $1.66B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $26.8M -$352.0M -$296.1M -$296.1M — —

3. AGIO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AGIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AGIO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $29.95 (-1.96% 1D, market cap $1.82B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AGIO ranks #590 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AGIO compare to ADRX and ZBIO in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AGIO carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 88.3%, and ROIC of -33.8%. By comparison, ADRX (ADARx Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.82B) and ZBIO (Zenas BioPharma Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.85B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGIO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AGIO leads on capital efficiency (-33.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGIO?

Per AGIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001439222), Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $54.0M in revenue (+48.0% YoY), -$413.0M in net income, and -$377.3M in free cash flow against $1.30B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AGIO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AGIO last traded at $29.95 (-1.96% on volume of 1,912,701 shares), positioning the stock -11.05% below its 50-day simple moving average ($33.67) and -5.70% below its 200-day simple moving average ($31.76). Across its 52-week range of $22.24 to $46.00, AGIO sits at the 32.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.7% ($26.45 to $33.45).

Direct Sub-Reports: AGIO RQD Cockpit AGIO 12M Forecast AGIO Earnings & Move AGIO Dividends & DRIP AGIO Insiders & 13F AGIO Whale Options AGIO Profit Sankey AGIO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 35/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AGIO — Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:26:20Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The AGIO scores 49 out of 100, a D grade labeled "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9 / 20): The weakest-scoring pillar relative to its weight is driven by an ROIC of -33.8% and an FCF yield of -16.97%.
  • Whale 13F Flow (15 / 20): Scored as institutional accumulation and options positioning.
  • Insider Conviction (3 / 20): The lowest pillar, reflecting SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. A score this low indicates insider and congressional activity is not providing a supportive signal for prospective buyers.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8 / 20): Beta is 1.0 and the score reflects sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is expected to move in line with the broader market, but the low pillar score suggests the current regime is not favorable to this profile.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (14 / 20): Altman Z of 11.84 and Piotroski F of 4/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.5. This is the strongest pillar, indicating the balance sheet is more resilient than the cash-flow metrics alone would suggest.

Upside drivers in the data are limited to the balance-sheet resilience and the institutional-flow score. The valuation tradeoff is significant: with negative earnings, negative FCF, and no P/E available, investors are paying for an uncertain future rather than current earnings power. The overall D grade signals that the risk-reward profile, as measured by this framework, currently skews unfavorably.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The market capitalization is $2.2B.

Revenue has grown from $26.8M (FY 2023) to $54.0M (FY 2025), but operating losses have persisted across all three periods. Per the market data, gross margin is 88.3%, while operating and net margins are both -60%, and ROIC is -33.8%. The the Altman Z-Score is 11.84 and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9. Debt/Equity is 0.5 per the same rating. The FY 2024 net income of $674.0M diverges sharply from its operating loss of -$425.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case: The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 14 of 20 with an Altman Z of 11.84, indicating financial resilience despite cash burn. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 (ROIC -33.8%, FCF yield -16.97%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $22.24 – $46.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Free cash flow was -$377.3M in FY 2025 with an FCF yield of -16.97% and an ROIC of -33.8%, while the Insider Conviction pillar scores only 3 of 20. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish any upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or 2nd-order bottlenecks.

  • Key Question #1: Why does FY 2024 show net income of $674.0M against an operating loss of -$425.7M, and what non-operating items drove the difference?
  • Key Question #2: What is the outcome and new timeline of the FDA review extension referenced in the news wire?
  • Key Question #3: What is the cash runway, given cash of $89.1M against FY 2025 FCF of -$377.3M?

AGIO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AGIO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AGIO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $29.95?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AGIO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AGIO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $36.35 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 14 of 20 with an Altman Z of 11.84, indicating financial resilience despite cash burn.

Don't sleep on AGIO's setup in Health Care. The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 14 of 20 with an Altman Z of 11.84, indicating financial resilience despite cash burn.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (35/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Shorting a 6/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $30.55 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

FA FadeTheHype Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $23.22 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $30.55

Free cash flow was -$377.3M in FY 2025 with an FCF yield of -16.97% and an ROIC of -33.8%, while the Insider Conviction pillar scores o

Fading this rally in AGIO at $30.55. Free cash flow was -$377.3M in FY 2025 with an FCF yield of -16.97% and an ROIC of -33.8%, while the Insider Conviction pillar scores only 3 of 20.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $30.55 (52-wk range $22.24–$46.00), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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