Stock Ratings / Utilities / AES / options

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The AES Corporation (AES) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$14.83 -1.46% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.76

The AES Corporation (AES) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $10.74B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AES Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AES stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, The AES Corporation (NYSE: AES) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $14.83 (-1.46% 1D, market cap $10.74B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, AES ranks #97 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AES compare to BEPC and OGE in the Utilities sector?

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Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), AES carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.8x, gross margin of 18.1%, and ROIC of 6.7%. By comparison, BEPC (Brookfield Renewable Corporation Brookfield Renewable Corporation Class A Subordinate Voting Shares) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $10.22B) and OGE (OGE Energy Corp) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $10.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AES leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while BEPC leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AES?

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Per AES's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000874761), The AES Corporation generated $12.23B in revenue (-0.4% YoY), $910.0M in net income, and -$1.62B in free cash flow against $51.77B in total assets and $12.11B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.76 (-0.45%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AES)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AES SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (33% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 18.1% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 15 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$14.99-0.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$14.97+0.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$15.03-1.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$14.83-7.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (47) → D- (39)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AES Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AES currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($14.88) and Max Pain ($15.57) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.53.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AES• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AES Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±1.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (AES)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for AES.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AES)

✓Walkthrough of AES's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AES // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.85%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-02O $14.98H $15.05L $14.83C $14.83VOL 8.97M

RES: $15.07SUP: $14.84SMA50: $14.88SMA200: $14.78

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AES Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AES Butterfly Map → + Track AES →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

2.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AES today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AES. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AES today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AES)

Utilities Rank #97 of 117 ⚔️ BEPC vs AES Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (AES vs. BEPC, OGE, ENLT, PNW)

Industry: Electric Utilities: Central (56 Tracked Issuers)

Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, The AES Corporation (AES) ranks #97 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #44 by equity capitalization ($10.74B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AES leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while BEPC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. OGE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with AES at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AES ACTIVE The AES Corporation	D-	39/100	11.8x	18.1%	6.7%	-1.46%	$10.74B	Benchmark Subject
BEPC Brookfield Renewable Corporation Brookfield Renewable Corporation Class A Subordinate Voting Shares	D+	56/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-1.49%	$10.22B	/bepc-vs-aes →
OGE OGE Energy Corp	C+	69/100	21.7x	60.5%	6.1%	+0.20%	$10.21B	/oge-vs-aes →
ENLT Enlight Renewable Energy Ltd.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	-3.74%	$9.61B	/enlt-vs-aes →
PNW Pinnacle West Capital Corporation	C	65/100	15.5x	—	5.2%	-0.34%	$12.92B	/pnw-vs-aes →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000874761

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), The AES Corporation (AES) reported GAAP revenue of $12.23B (-0.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $12.28B , and -3.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $910.0M, operating cash flow of $4.31B, and free cash flow of -$1.62B (+65.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, AES closed FY2025 with $51.77B in total assets against $12.11B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.54, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$12.23B	$910.0M	$4.31B	-$1.62B	$51.77B	$12.11B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$12.28B	$1.68B	$2.75B	-$4.64B	$47.41B	$11.09B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$12.67B	$249.0M	$3.03B	$2.46B	$15.20B	$3.56B

3. AES Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AES stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AES compare to BEPC and OGE in the Utilities sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AES?

Where is AES trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AES last traded at $14.83 (-1.46% on volume of 9,138,086 shares), positioning the stock -0.34% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.88) and +0.34% above its 200-day simple moving average ($14.78). Across its 52-week range of $13.21 to $17.65, AES sits at the 36.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($14.56 to $15.10).

AES Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is AES's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for AES.

Direct Sub-Reports: AES RQD Cockpit AES 12M Forecast AES Earnings & Move AES Dividends & DRIP AES Insiders & 13F AES Whale Options AES Profit Sankey AES News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 39/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AES — The AES Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:16:14Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AES scores 39 out of 100 and carries a letter grade of D-, labeled "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." Across the five pillars, the Fundamental Cash Engine scores 8 of 20 (ROIC 6.7%; FCF yield -15.12%), indicating weak cash generation relative to the invested capital base. Whale/13F Flow scores 13 of 20 for institutional accumulation and options positioning, the strongest of the five pillars but still below midpoint. Insider Conviction scores 7 of 20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Macro Regime Fit scores 6 of 20, reflecting a Beta of 0.75 and sector sensitivity. Forensic Balance Sheet scores 5 of 20, the weakest pillar, driven by an Altman Z-Score of 0.54, a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 2.57.

For a prospective investor, the implication is that the rating frames the stock as balance-sheet and cash-flow constrained. The most favorable market-data figures, such as a forward P/E of 11 and EV/EBITDA of 3.5, describe valuation on earnings and enterprise value, but the forensic and cash-engine pillars signal that those headline multiples do not offset the weak free-cash-flow and leverage profile. The dividend yield of 4.67% is a visible income feature, while the negative FCF yield and high leverage are the main tradeoffs to weigh against it.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
15.05	$10.74B	11.8	11	3.5	1.28	4.67%	0.75	$13.21 - $17.65	6.7%

Business

The AES Corporation (AES) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Utilities sector, specifically Electric Utilities: Central, per the company profile. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 18.1%, an operating margin of 9.1%, and a net margin of 7.4%. Revenue sources and customer detail are not available in source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the most directly relevant items are:

A Seeking Alpha report on European Union approval for a sale to GIM and EQT Fund Management, tagged YELLOW (market wire).
A GuruFocus report on AES gaining attention in the Utilities sector, tagged GREEN (catalyst).
An inkl report on Wall Street's outlook for the stock, tagged GREEN (catalyst).
A Yahoo Finance report on the next quarterly earnings expectations, tagged YELLOW (market wire).
A Yahoo Finance report on a quarterly dividend announcement, tagged YELLOW (market wire).
A TradingView estimates report, tagged YELLOW (market wire).

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Risk watch items drawn from the RQD pillars are the negative FCF yield, the Altman Z-Score of 0.54, and Debt/Equity of 2.57.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or proprietary signals are recorded (supply_chain: NONE; butterfly_links: empty). Sector and industry context is limited to Utilities / Electric Utilities: Central per the profile. Second-order ripple analysis cannot be drawn from the supplied graph, and no bottleneck mapping is available in source data.

Open Questions

Revenue sources, segment mix, and customer detail are not available in source data, so the drivers of the reported revenue decline cannot be attributed.
Reported EPS for FY 2023–FY 2025 is recorded as N/A, so per-share earnings trend cannot be verified against the net income figures.
FY 2023 cash is listed as N/A, limiting liquidity comparison across the reported periods.
The terms and status of the European Union-approved sale to GIM and EQT Fund Management, and whether it affects the debt and cash figures, are not resolved in the source data.
Analyst consensus, price targets, and 13F or insider holder detail are not available, so institutional and insider conviction cannot be validated beyond the RQD pillar scores.

AES Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for The AES Corporation (AES) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AES Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 8h ago

What to Expect From AES Corporation's Next Quarterly Earnings Report

Yahoo Finance report covering The AES Corporation (AES) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 11h ago

AES wins European Union approval for sale to GIM and EQT Fund Management

Seeking Alpha report covering The AES Corporation (AES) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 14h ago

The AES Corporation Estimates – NYSE:AES

TradingView report covering The AES Corporation (AES) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST inkl • 17h ago

AES Corporation Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?

inkl report covering The AES Corporation (AES) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST GuruFocus • 20h ago

U.S. Utilities Sector Spotlight: AES Corporation (AES) Gains Att

GuruFocus report covering The AES Corporation (AES) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 23h ago

AES Announces Quarterly Dividend

Yahoo Finance report covering The AES Corporation (AES) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

The AES Corporation (NYSE:AES) Stock Has Consensus Target Price of $15.83

MarketBeat report covering The AES Corporation (AES) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

AES (NYSE:AES) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall St report covering The AES Corporation (AES) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AES Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $14.83?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AES 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $13.24 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AES (D- • RQD 39/100) a Buy at $15.05?

Welcome to the AES (The AES Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 39/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Electric Utilities: Central. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.59 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $15.05

Pump the brakes on AES — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AES, but look at what you are paying: 11.8x trailing P/E with 18.1% gross margins. Unless The AES Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $17.46 (+16.0%)

Spot @ $15.05

AES cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AES, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Electric Utilities: Central and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $15.05 (52-wk range $13.21 - $17.65), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.