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Stock Ratings / Health Care / AEON
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AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$0.27 -6.80% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.27

AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $16.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AEON Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AEON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: AEON) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $0.27 (-6.80% 1D, market cap $16.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AEON ranks #344 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AEON compare to MRKR and NEUP in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AEON carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MRKR (Marker Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $16.3M) and NEUP (Neuphoria Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.8%, cap $16.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AEON leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NEUP leads on capital efficiency (-11.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AEON?
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Per AEON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001837607), AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) generated $35.8M in revenue (-82.5% YoY), -$39.2M in net income, and -$17.3M in free cash flow against $5.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.27 (-1.41%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510046
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (9)Whales (12)SEC (10)Macro (10)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.7% Base Target
$2 Bull$0 Base$0 Bear
📬 FREE AEON RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AEON)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AEON SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
38
Grade E$0.23+0% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$0.23+8.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
43
Grade D$0.25+8% Next Q
Current
46
Grade D$0.27-6.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AEON Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AEON currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.26) and Max Pain ($0.28) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $1.52.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AEON• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AEON Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
52.530 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
1 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE7% OF RANGE
L: $0$0.27H: $1
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on AEON

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (45)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 1/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (45)

17/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AEON
  • ✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AEON)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AEON's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AEON // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -71.58%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $0.29H $0.29L $0.27C $0.27VOL 774.6K
RES: $0.47SUP: $0.23SMA50: $0.26SMA200: $0.67
$1.10$0.85$0.60$0.35$0.10RES $0.47SUP $0.23$0.272026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AEON Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AEON Butterfly Map → + Track AEON →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -82.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AEON today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AEON. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AEON today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AEON)

Health Care Rank #344 of 1015 ⚔️ MRKR vs AEON Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AEON vs. MRKR, NEUP, RADX, KPTI)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) ranks #344 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #846 by equity capitalization ($16.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AEON leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NEUP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -11.8% ROIC and — gross margin. AEON currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AEON ACTIVE
AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A)
D 46/100 — — -35.0% -6.80% $16.2M Benchmark Subject
MRKR
Marker Therapeutics Inc.
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% -2.97% $16.3M /mrkr-vs-aeon →
NEUP
Neuphoria Therapeutics Inc.
E 31/100 — — -11.8% -0.33% $16.5M /neup-vs-aeon →
RADX
Radiopharm Theranostics Limited
D 46/100 — — — -3.26% $15.6M /radx-vs-aeon →
KPTI
Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -24.76% $15.0M /kpti-vs-aeon →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001837607 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) reported GAAP revenue of $35.8M (-82.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $204.4M ) , GAAP net income of -$39.2M, operating cash flow of -$17.3M, and free cash flow of -$17.3M (+14.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, AEON closed FY2025 with $5.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $35.8M -$39.2M -$17.3M -$17.3M $5.6M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $204.4M $42.0M -$20.3M -$20.3M $3.1M —

3. AEON Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AEON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: AEON) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $0.27 (-6.80% 1D, market cap $16.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AEON ranks #344 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AEON compare to MRKR and NEUP in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AEON carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MRKR (Marker Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $16.3M) and NEUP (Neuphoria Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.8%, cap $16.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AEON leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NEUP leads on capital efficiency (-11.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AEON?

Per AEON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001837607), AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) generated $35.8M in revenue (-82.5% YoY), -$39.2M in net income, and -$17.3M in free cash flow against $5.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AEON trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AEON last traded at $0.27 (-6.80% on volume of 774,566 shares), positioning the stock +3.85% above its 50-day simple moving average ($0.26) and -59.70% below its 200-day simple moving average ($0.67). Across its 52-week range of $0.18 to $1.45, AEON sits at the 7.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.30).

Direct Sub-Reports: AEON RQD Cockpit AEON 12M Forecast AEON Earnings & Move AEON Dividends & DRIP AEON Insiders & 13F AEON Whale Options AEON Profit Sankey AEON News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 46/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AEON — AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $0.27 (-6.80% 1D, market capitalization $16.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations..0B, which is inconsistent with the $17.4M figure in the market data and should be treated as unresolved. — describes its products, customers, or revenue model. Per the financials, reported revenue is — for both FY 2025 and FY 2024.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) reported $35.8M in annual revenue (up from $204.4M in FY2024, -82.5% YoY) and -$39.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2024 ($204.4M revenue, $42.0M net income) through FY2025, AEON scaled operating cash flow to -$17.3M and free cash flow to -$17.3M, backed by $5.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 46/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.18 – $1.45 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data. — for specific supply-chain relationships. The sector and industry classification (Health Care; Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations) is the only contextual link provided.

  • Key Question #1: Can AEON sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $35.8M and free cash flow of -$17.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AEON's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AEON Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AEON Debate Forum (3) ↓
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago
Stock Splits Calendar for:

Yahoo Finance report covering AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AEON Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.27?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AEON 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AEON:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $0.32 (+18.5%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The stock is up 11.36% with a moderate 14/20 whale-flow pillar score per the RQD rating.

Long AEON at $0.27 targeting $0.32. The stock is up 11.36% with a moderate 14/20 whale-flow pillar score per the RQD rating.. Institutional whale score is 12/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $0.18 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — AEON's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.22 (-18.5%)
Spot @ $0.27

ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of 0%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 point to weak fundamentals and a Roarable Sell verdict.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short AEON above $0.27. ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of 0%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 point to weak fundamentals and a Roarable Sell verdict.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $1.45.

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