American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.7% Move

$19.61 -2.53% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.57

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 72/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (37% profit margin, 12% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $3.37B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AEO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 72/100 at a spot price of $19.61 (-2.53% 1D, market cap $3.37B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AEO ranks #111 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AEO compare to BOOT and BKE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores), AEO carries a Roarable B (72/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.1x, gross margin of 36.5%, and ROIC of 12.3%. By comparison, BOOT (Boot Barn Holdings Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 17.3x, ROIC 15.2%, cap $3.90B) and BKE (Buckle Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 48.6%, cap $2.42B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BKE leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while BKE leads on capital efficiency (48.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AEO?
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Per AEO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0000919012), American Eagle Outfitters Inc. generated $5.55B in revenue (+4.1% YoY), $186.0M in net income, and $195.4M in free cash flow against $4.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (37% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.57 (-0.22%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 3.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 72/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.7% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510072
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C+
Cash (15)Whales (13)SEC (16)Macro (11)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.3% Base Target
$30 Bull$21 Base$16 Bear
📬 FREE AEO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AEO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (72/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AEO SCORES 72/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.65 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (69.3) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
64
Grade C+$17.78+0.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
67
Grade B-$17.81+9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
69
Grade B-$19.42+1% Next Q
Current
72
Grade B$19.61+7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (64) → B (72)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AEO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 72/100 (B) score, AEO faces multiple-compression risk if 18.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 34.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($17.31) or 200D SMA ($18.32) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($20.85) toward Bear Floor ($16.08).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AEO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AEO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 30, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Jan 30, 2027 (~88 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.7% Swing Band

±$1.51 Expected Swing
$18.10 (-7.7%)Spot $19.61$21.12 (+7.7%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AEO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 72/100

Trailing EPS: $1.11 • YoY Revenue Growth: 4.1%

Model Bullish Setup (72/100)Model Risk Weight (28/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252026-01-31$5.55B$186.0M$195.4M36.5%
FY 20242025-02-01$5.33B$327.0M$254.3M39.2%
FY 20232024-02-03$5.26B$169.0M$343.9M36.5%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating AEO & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on AEO
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
AEO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.57%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $19.46H $20.12L $19.46C $19.61VOL 4.39M
RES: $20.53SUP: $13.86SMA50: $17.31SMA200: $18.32
$20.86$19.03$17.20$15.36$13.53RES $20.53SUP $13.86$19.612026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AEO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
11.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AEO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AEO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AEO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AEO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #111 of 1011 ⚔️ BOOT vs AEO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (AEO vs. BOOT, BKE, ANF, URBN)

Industry: Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores (25 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) ranks #111 by composite RQD confidence (72/100, grade B) and #342 by equity capitalization ($3.37B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BKE leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while BKE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 48.6% ROIC and 49.0% gross margin. ANF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 84/100 (A-) compared with AEO at 72/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AEO ACTIVE
American Eagle Outfitters Inc.
B 72/100 18.1x 36.5% 12.3% -2.53% $3.37B Benchmark Subject
BOOT
Boot Barn Holdings Inc.
C- 61/100 17.3x 38.1% 15.2% +1.35% $3.90B /boot-vs-aeo →
BKE
Buckle Inc.
B 73/100 11.5x 49.0% 48.6% -1.26% $2.42B /bke-vs-aeo →
ANF
Abercrombie & Fitch Company
A- 84/100 13.9x — 40.7% -0.80% $7.03B /anf-vs-aeo →
URBN
Urban Outfitters Inc.
B+ 80/100 17.0x 36.0% 14.2% -1.59% $7.90B /urbn-vs-aeo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0000919012

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) reported GAAP revenue of $5.55B (+4.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.33B , and +5.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $186.0M, operating cash flow of $456.2M, and free cash flow of $195.4M (-23.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, AEO closed FY2025 with $4.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.65, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-01-31 $5.55B $186.0M $456.2M $195.4M $4.01B $0
FY2024 (FY) 2025-02-01 $5.33B $327.0M $476.8M $254.3M $3.83B $896.4M
FY2023 (FY) 2024-02-03 $5.26B $169.0M $580.7M $343.9M $6.31B $1.48B

3. AEO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AEO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 72/100 at a spot price of $19.61 (-2.53% 1D, market cap $3.37B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AEO ranks #111 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AEO compare to BOOT and BKE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores), AEO carries a Roarable B (72/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.1x, gross margin of 36.5%, and ROIC of 12.3%. By comparison, BOOT (Boot Barn Holdings Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 17.3x, ROIC 15.2%, cap $3.90B) and BKE (Buckle Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 48.6%, cap $2.42B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BKE leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while BKE leads on capital efficiency (48.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AEO?

Per AEO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0000919012), American Eagle Outfitters Inc. generated $5.55B in revenue (+4.1% YoY), $186.0M in net income, and $195.4M in free cash flow against $4.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (37% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AEO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AEO last traded at $19.61 (-2.53% on volume of 4,636,011 shares), positioning the stock +13.29% above its 50-day simple moving average ($17.31) and +7.04% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.32). Across its 52-week range of $14.10 to $28.46, AEO sits at the 38.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 69.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.7% ($18.10 to $21.12).

AEO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is AEO's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Jan 30, 2027.

How much is AEO stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7.7% event move for AEO, spanning a range between $18.1 and $21.12.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 72/100 (B) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AEO — American Eagle Outfitters Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:23:34Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AEO scores 72 out of 100, a letter grade of B, with the verdict label "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 12.3% and an FCF yield of 5.8%. For a prospective investor, these are the core evidence that the business converts capital into cash at a reasonable rate, though the operating margin of 4.1% (per market data) leaves limited room for error.
  • Whale 13F Flow (13/20): The rating describes institutional accumulation and options positioning as a moderate contributor. Source data does not provide the underlying 13F holdings, so the score cannot be traced to specific filers.
  • Insider Conviction (17/20): The highest pillar, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Per the news wire, a director sale of $65,829 is reported, which is a single data point the rating appears to weigh against broader cluster activity not itemized in the source.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20): Per the rating, beta of 0.93 and sector sensitivity place this among the weaker pillars. A beta under 1.0 implies below-market sensitivity to broad moves, which can cushion downturns but also limits participation in strong rallies.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Per the rating, Altman Z 3.65, Piotroski F 8/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5. These indicate a financially sound profile by the rating's own metrics.

Investor implications: The valuation is moderate (P/E TTM 18.1, forward P/E 16.8, EV/EBITDA 7 per market data), so upside depends on earnings improvement rather than multiple expansion. The main tradeoff is that the thin 4.1% operating margin and the 52-week range of $14.1 to $28.46 indicate meaningful price volatility relative to the fundamental cushion. The Macro Regime pillar (11/20) is the weakest link, suggesting the score is more dependent on balance sheet and cash generation than on market-environment tailwinds.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
20.12$3.37B18.116.871.112.53%0.93$14.1 - $28.4612.3%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025 (filed 2026-01-31)$5547.2M$226.2M$186.0MN/A$195.4M$238.9M$0.0M
FY 2024 (filed 2025-02-01)$5328.7M$427.3M$327.0MN/A$254.3M$309.0M$896.4M
FY 2023 (filed 2024-02-03)$5261.8M$222.7M$169.0MN/A$343.9MN/A$1477.5M

Revenue rose from $5261.8M (FY 2023) to $5547.2M (FY 2025), while net income moved from $169.0M to $327.0M in FY 2024 before falling to $186.0M in FY 2025. Per market data, net margin is 3.4% and operating margin is 4.1%. Per the RQD rating, ROIC is 12.3%, Altman Z is 3.65, and Piotroski F is 8/9. Reported debt fell from $1477.5M (FY 2023) to $0.0M (FY 2025), and cash was $238.9M at FY 2025.

Open Questions

  • What drove the FY 2024 net income peak of $327.0M and the decline to $186.0M in FY 2025?
  • Why are EPS values reported as N/A for all three periods when EPS (TTM) is 1.11?
  • What are the revenue segments, channels, and geographic exposures behind the $5547.2M FY 2025 revenue?
  • What is the identity and size of institutional 13F holders contributing to the Whale pillar score?
  • What explains the cash line being N/A for FY 2023, and what is the current debt composition given the $0.0M FY 2025 figure?

AEO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AEO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AEO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $19.61?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AEO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AEO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $23.74 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AEO (B • RQD 72/100) a Buy at $20.12?

Welcome to the AEO (American Eagle Outfitters Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 72/100 (Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward) in Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores. Bulls point to capital efficiency (12.3% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $15.89 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $20.12

Pump the brakes on AEO — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AEO, but look at what you are paying: 18.1x trailing P/E with 36.5% gross margins. Unless American Eagle Outfitters Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $23.94 (+19.0%)
Spot @ $20.12

AEO cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AEO, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $20.12 (52-wk range $14.10 - $28.46), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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