What is ADM's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for ADM.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / ADM / options

KHC (53) BG (32) GIS (53) MDLZ (72) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$76.91 +0.93% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $76.89

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $37.07B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ADM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ADM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $76.91 (+0.93% 1D, market cap $37.07B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, ADM ranks #32 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ADM compare to KHC and BG in the Consumer Staples sector?

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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), ADM carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 34.1x, gross margin of 20.2%, and ROIC of 3.2%. By comparison, KHC (The Kraft Heinz Company) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.6%, cap $28.86B) and BG (Bunge Limited) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E 22.6x, ROIC 3.3%, cap $18.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BG leads on earnings multiple (22.6x) while MDLZ leads on capital efficiency (7.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADM?

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Per ADM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000007084), Archer-Daniels-Midland Company generated $24.96B in revenue (+2.4% YoY), $1.08B in net income, and $4.20B in free cash flow against $52.39B in total assets and $6.61B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $76.89 (-0.02%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 16.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ADM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ADM SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+17/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 64% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 38.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$83.64-5.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$79.36-2.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$77.23-0.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C$76.91+1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (72) → C (64)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ADM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, ADM faces multiple-compression risk if 34.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 17.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($81.71) or 200D SMA ($76.67) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($78.99) toward Bear Floor ($61.61).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ADM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ADM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ADM)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ADM.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ADM & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ADM
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ADM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.84%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $76.20H $76.91L $76.20C $76.91VOL 4.14M

RES: $89.08SUP: $75.86SMA50: $81.71SMA200: $76.67

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ADM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ADM Butterfly Map → + Track ADM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

26.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ADM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ADM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ADM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ADM)

Consumer Staples Rank #32 of 146 ⚔️ KHC vs ADM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (ADM vs. KHC, BG, GIS, MDLZ)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) ranks #32 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #18 by equity capitalization ($37.07B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BG leads on earnings valuation at 22.6x trailing P/E, while MDLZ leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.7% ROIC and 28.4% gross margin. MDLZ currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with ADM at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ADM ACTIVE Archer-Daniels-Midland Company	C	64/100	34.1x	20.2%	3.2%	+0.93%	$37.07B	Benchmark Subject
KHC The Kraft Heinz Company	D+	53/100	—	33.3%	-6.6%	+1.84%	$28.86B	/khc-vs-adm →
BG Bunge Limited	E	32/100	22.6x	20.1%	3.3%	+0.65%	$18.57B	/bg-vs-adm →
GIS General Mills Inc.	D+	53/100	—	33.6%	3.8%	+2.91%	$18.33B	/gis-vs-adm →
MDLZ Mondelez International Inc.	B	72/100	32.6x	28.4%	7.7%	+3.85%	$82.20B	/mdlz-vs-adm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000007084

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) reported GAAP revenue of $24.96B (+2.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $24.37B , and -2.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.08B, operating cash flow of $5.45B, and free cash flow of $4.20B (+242.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, ADM closed FY2025 with $52.39B in total assets against $6.61B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.19, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$24.96B	$1.08B	$5.45B	$4.20B	$52.39B	$6.61B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$24.37B	$1.80B	$2.79B	$1.23B	$53.27B	$7.58B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$25.69B	$3.48B	$4.46B	$3.30B	$30.83B	$7.21B

3. ADM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ADM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ADM compare to KHC and BG in the Consumer Staples sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADM?

Where is ADM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ADM last traded at $76.91 (+0.93% on volume of 4,139,049 shares), positioning the stock -5.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($81.71) and +0.31% above its 200-day simple moving average ($76.67). Across its 52-week range of $55.58 to $88.75, ADM sits at the 64.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($73.22 to $80.60).

Direct Sub-Reports: ADM RQD Cockpit ADM 12M Forecast ADM Earnings & Move ADM Dividends & DRIP ADM Insiders & 13F ADM Whale Options ADM Profit Sankey ADM News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ADM — Archer-Daniels-Midland Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:11:55Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ADM scores 59 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with a verdict label of "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 (ROIC 3.2%; FCF yield 11.45%), Whale 13F Flow at 8/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 14/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 13/20 (Beta 0.96; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 12/20 (Altman Z 2.19; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.24).

Read together, the pillars describe a company with a strong cash-generation profile relative to its return on capital, a below-median score on institutional flow, and a moderate balance sheet. The highest-scoring pillar is insider conviction, while whale 13F flow is the weakest, which suggests that the institutional picture is less supportive than the insider signal. A beta near 1.0 means the stock has tended to move in line with the broad market, so macro regime fit scores as neutral rather than a source of either tailwind or headwind. The C- grade and "Hold" label frame the rating as a cautious neutral: the scoring does not point to a strong buy or sell case, and upside depends on whether the cash-flow strength translates into improved returns on capital. Valuation is a central tradeoff: the trailing P/E of 34.1 and EV/EBITDA of 17.8 are elevated relative to the thin 3.2% ROIC, so an investor is paying a premium for cash flow whose durability is not yet demonstrated by returns. These are educational observations drawn from the rating, not a personalized recommendation.

Business

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is listed on the NYSE and classified in the Consumer Staples sector, Packaged Foods industry,

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, six items reference ADM. Two are flagged as CATALYST (GREEN) and four as MARKET WIRE (YELLOW). Headlines describe a stock decline on a day the market improved, an earnings preview framed around "caution warranted amid recent financial volatility," a reduction in holdings by Kieckhefer Group LLC as reported by MarketBeat, and general market-action coverage. The catalyst items are labeled as such in the feed, but their specific content is not detailed in the source summaries. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Risk watch items in the feed are limited to the volatility and earnings-preview framing; — for any further quantified catalyst.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no upstream or downstream links and no sector correlations listed. Upstream dependencies: — Downstream dependencies: — Sector correlations: — Second-order bottlenecks: — The only sector placement available is Consumer Staples / Packaged Foods, which is the basis for the macro regime pillar's sector sensitivity reference.

Open Questions

What drove the decline in net income from $3.48B in FY 2023 to $1.08B in FY 2025 while revenue stayed in a narrow band, and is margin recovery expected?
Why is EPS reported as N/A across all three periods when trailing EPS is listed at 2.24, and how does that reconcile with net income?
What are the specific contents of the two CATALYST-flagged news items, and what does the upcoming earnings preview anticipate?
What is the cash balance for FY 2023, which is recorded as N/A, and how does it affect the liquidity picture?
What are the analyst consensus ratings, price targets, and any insider or 13F holder positions behind the whale and insider pillar scores?

ADM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ADM Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 20h ago

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) Stock Declines While Market Improves: Some Information for Investors

Yahoo Finance report covering Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 23h ago

Archer-Daniels-Midland: Caution Warranted Amid Recent Financial Volatility (Earnings Preview)

Seeking Alpha report covering Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) Stock Dips While Market Gains: Key Facts

Yahoo Finance report covering Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Estimates – NYSE:ADM

TradingView report covering Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Archer Daniels Midland Company $ADM Stock Holdings Reduced by Kieckhefer Group LLC

MarketBeat report covering Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) Outpaces Stock Market Gains: What You Should Know

Yahoo Finance report covering Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST MarketBeat • 1d ago

Archer Daniels Midland Company $ADM Stock Holdings Raised by TD Waterhouse Canada Inc.

MarketBeat report covering Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Archer Daniels Surpasses 50-Day SMA: Time to Buy or Stay Cautious?

Yahoo Finance report covering Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ADM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $76.91?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ADM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

BR BreakoutHunter Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $98.44 (+28.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

FY 2025 free cash flow of $4204.0M exceeded net income of $1078.0M, and the FCF yield of 11.45% signals substantial cash generation rel

Picked up a starter position in ADM in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $76.91. FY 2025 free cash flow of $4204.0M exceeded net income of $1078.0M, and the FCF yield of 11.45% signals substantial cash generation relative to the market price.. Trading inside a $55.58–$88.75 52-week range with 11.45% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Packaged Foods multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 64/100 quality, though with 0.96 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $76.91 and keeping dry powder in case we test $71.53.

FO ForensicBear 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $58.45 (-24.0%)

Spot @ $76.91

ROIC of 3.2% and a trailing P/E of 34.1 leave the stock priced at a premium for returns that remain thin, with whale 13F flow scoring o

ROIC of 3.2% and a trailing P/E of 34.1 leave the stock priced at a premium for returns that remain thin, with whale 13F flow scoring only 8/20.. Look at the math on ADM: paying 34.1x trailing P/E for 3.2% ROIC and 5.3% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Packaged Foods demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $67.68 before getting long.