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Acadia Healthcare Company Inc. (ACHC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$29.62 -1.13% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.50

Acadia Healthcare Company Inc. (ACHC) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $2.79B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ACHC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Acadia Healthcare Company Inc. (NASDAQ: ACHC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $29.62 (-1.13% 1D, market cap $2.79B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ACHC ranks #497 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ACHC compare to CLOV and CELC in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), ACHC carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -24.8%. By comparison, CLOV (Clover Health Investments Corp. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -29.3%, cap $2.37B) and CELC (Celcuity Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.38B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VCYT leads on earnings multiple (63.2x) while VCYT leads on capital efficiency (4.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACHC?
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Per ACHC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001520697), Acadia Healthcare Company Inc. generated $3.31B in revenue (+5.0% YoY), -$1.10B in net income, and -$439.9M in free cash flow against $5.53B in total assets and $2.47B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.50 (-0.39%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510038
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk E
Cash (5)Whales (14)SEC (5)Macro (8)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target
$38 Bull$27 Base$21 Bear
📬 FREE ACHC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ACHC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ACHC SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (37% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+8/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 75% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 15 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
46
Grade D$31.67-0.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
43
Grade D$31.43-6.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
41
Grade D$29.51+0.4% Next Q
Current
38
Grade D-$29.62-7.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (46) → D- (38)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ACHC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ACHC currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($29.13) and Max Pain ($31.10) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $37.62.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ACHC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ACHC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 38%NO 62%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ACHC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $29.62: 337.6 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $21.02
$7,097
$-2,903 (-29.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $26.95
$9,099
$-901 (-9.0%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $37.62
$12,701
+$2,701 (+27.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$2874%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$3569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$2458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ACHC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ACHC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ACHC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.97%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $29.46H $29.96L $29.46C $29.62VOL 2.58M
RES: $32.33SUP: $26.81SMA50: $29.13SMA200: $26.05
$36.91$32.43$27.95$23.46$18.98RES $32.33SUP $26.81$29.622026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ACHC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ACHC Butterfly Map → + Track ACHC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
14.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ACHC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ACHC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ACHC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ACHC)

Health Care Rank #497 of 1015 ⚔️ CLOV vs ACHC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ACHC vs. CLOV, CELC, FTRE, VCYT)

Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Acadia Healthcare Company Inc. (ACHC) ranks #497 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #212 by equity capitalization ($2.79B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VCYT leads on earnings valuation at 63.2x trailing P/E, while VCYT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 4.6% ROIC and 70.1% gross margin. VCYT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with ACHC at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ACHC ACTIVE
Acadia Healthcare Company Inc.
D- 38/100 — — -24.8% -1.13% $2.79B Benchmark Subject
CLOV
Clover Health Investments Corp. (Class A)
D- 36/100 — — -29.3% -3.36% $2.37B /clov-vs-achc →
CELC
Celcuity Inc.
E 31/100 — — -35.0% -2.98% $3.38B /celc-vs-achc →
FTRE
Fortrea Holdings Inc.
E 32/100 — — -35.0% -5.96% $2.05B /ftre-vs-achc →
VCYT
Veracyte Inc.
B 73/100 63.2x 70.1% 4.6% -2.02% $4.02B /vcyt-vs-achc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001520697 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Acadia Healthcare Company Inc. (ACHC) reported GAAP revenue of $3.31B (+5.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.15B , and +13.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$1.10B, operating cash flow of $131.9M, and free cash flow of -$439.9M (+21.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ACHC closed FY2025 with $5.53B in total assets against $2.47B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.45, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.31B -$1.10B $131.9M -$439.9M $5.53B $2.47B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.15B $255.6M $129.7M -$560.7M $5.96B $1.88B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.93B -$21.7M $462.3M $330.5M $3.51B $822.4M

3. ACHC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ACHC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Acadia Healthcare Company Inc. (NASDAQ: ACHC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $29.62 (-1.13% 1D, market cap $2.79B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ACHC ranks #497 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ACHC compare to CLOV and CELC in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), ACHC carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -24.8%. By comparison, CLOV (Clover Health Investments Corp. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -29.3%, cap $2.37B) and CELC (Celcuity Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.38B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VCYT leads on earnings multiple (63.2x) while VCYT leads on capital efficiency (4.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACHC?

Per ACHC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001520697), Acadia Healthcare Company Inc. generated $3.31B in revenue (+5.0% YoY), -$1.10B in net income, and -$439.9M in free cash flow against $5.53B in total assets and $2.47B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ACHC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ACHC last traded at $29.62 (-1.13% on volume of 1,256,354 shares), positioning the stock +1.68% above its 50-day simple moving average ($29.13) and +13.70% above its 200-day simple moving average ($26.05). Across its 52-week range of $11.43 to $35.83, ACHC sits at the 74.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.0% ($27.25 to $31.99).

Direct Sub-Reports: ACHC RQD Cockpit ACHC 12M Forecast ACHC Earnings & Move ACHC Dividends & DRIP ACHC Insiders & 13F ACHC Whale Options ACHC Profit Sankey ACHC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 38/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ACHC — Acadia Healthcare Company Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Acadia Healthcare Company Inc. (ACHC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 38/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $29.62 (-1.13% 1D, market capitalization $2.79B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -24.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -40.6%, and free cash flow yield of -16.04%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.07x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.45, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.27x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Acadia Healthcare Company Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector and the Medical Specialities industry. The profile does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model. The company reported revenue of $3.31B for FY 2025, indicating a substantial operating scale.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Acadia Healthcare Company Inc. (ACHC) reported $3.31B in annual revenue (up from $3.15B in FY2024, +5.0% YoY) and -$1.10B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.93B revenue, -$21.7M net income) through FY2025, ACHC scaled operating cash flow to $131.9M and free cash flow to -$439.9M, backed by $5.53B in total assets against $2.47B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 38/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -16.04% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $11.43 – $35.83 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -40.6% operating margins and a 1.07x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector-level input is beta of 1.07 and the Health Care / Medical Specialities classification.

  • Key Question #1: Can ACHC sustain or expand its -40.6% operating margin and -24.8% ROIC against Medical Specialities peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.31B and free cash flow of -$439.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.47B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ACHC's 21.0x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.07x)?

ACHC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Acadia Healthcare Company Inc. (ACHC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ACHC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ACHC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $29.62?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ACHC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ACHC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $38.05 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forward P/E of 21 against negative trailing EPS suggests the market is pricing in a recovery, and two news headlines frame the stock as

Forward P/E of 21 against negative trailing EPS suggests the market is pricing in a recovery, and two news headlines frame the stock as undervalued.. When you look under the hood at ACHC, Fundamental Cash Engine is 5/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -24.8% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (14/20) has been quietly accumulating below $35.83. My 12M target is $38.05.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Fair point on 21.0x forward P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Medical Specialities. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $23.07 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $29.96

Altman Z of 0.45, Debt/Equity of 1.27, FCF yield of -16.04%, and ROIC of -24.8% place the balance sheet and cash engine in the weakest

Careful chasing ACHC at $29.96. Altman Z of 0.45, Debt/Equity of 1.27, FCF yield of -16.04%, and ROIC of -24.8% place the balance sheet and cash engine in the weakest tier of the RQD rating.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is -40.6%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $23.07 on multiple compression.

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