Stock Ratings / Industrials / AADX / insiders

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Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$11.15 -5.67% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.02

Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.04B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AADX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AADX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (NYSE: AADX) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $11.15 (-5.67% 1D, market cap $2.04B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BULLISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AADX compare to RDW and VOYG in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), AADX carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, RDW (Redwire Corporation) holds a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -17.4%, cap $2.29B) and VOYG (Voyager Technologies Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (18/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ATRO leads on earnings multiple (92.1x) while ATRO leads on capital efficiency (13.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AADX?

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Per AADX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002118195), Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $999.3M in total assets and $627.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.02 (-1.21%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 1.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AADX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AADX SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.4% FCF Margin ($57.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (53.1) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$10.77+0.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$10.81-4.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$10.28+8.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$11.15-7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (34) → D- (42)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AADX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AADX currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.99) and Max Pain ($11.71) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.45.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AADX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AADX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 42%NO 58%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

AADX Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (AADX)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on AADX. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AADX)

✓Walkthrough of AADX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AADX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -41.35%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $10.98H $11.82L $10.98C $11.15VOL 2.12M

RES: $19.11SUP: $9.01SMA50: $11.99SMA200: $15.89

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AADX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AADX Butterfly Map → + Track AADX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AADX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AADX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AADX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AADX)

Industrials Rank #325 of 485 ⚔️ RDW vs AADX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (AADX vs. RDW, VOYG, DCO, ATRO)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) ranks #325 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #210 by equity capitalization ($2.04B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ATRO leads on earnings valuation at 92.1x trailing P/E, while ATRO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.2% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. ATRO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 53/100 (D+) compared with AADX at 42/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AADX ACTIVE Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc.	D-	42/100	—	—	—	-5.67%	$2.04B	Benchmark Subject
RDW Redwire Corporation	E	32/100	—	5.2%	-17.4%	-8.41%	$2.29B	/rdw-vs-aadx →
VOYG Voyager Technologies Inc. (Class A)	E	18/100	—	18.0%	-35.0%	-4.93%	$1.72B	/voyg-vs-aadx →
DCO Ducommun Incorporated	D-	40/100	—	26.9%	-3.1%	-4.63%	$2.54B	/dco-vs-aadx →
ATRO Astronics Corporation	D+	53/100	92.1x	29.9%	13.2%	-5.55%	$2.70B	/atro-vs-aadx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002118195

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) reported GAAP revenue of $0 , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, AADX closed FY2025 with $999.3M in total assets against $627.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$0	—	—	$999.3M	$627.0M

3. AADX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AADX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AADX compare to RDW and VOYG in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AADX?

Where is AADX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AADX last traded at $11.15 (-5.67% on volume of 2,228,069 shares), positioning the stock -7.01% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.99) and -29.83% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.89). Across its 52-week range of $9.40 to $24.24, AADX sits at the 11.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($9.76 to $12.54).

AADX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are AADX insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies AADX leadership and institutional positioning as: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING.

Direct Sub-Reports: AADX RQD Cockpit AADX 12M Forecast AADX Earnings & Move AADX Dividends & DRIP AADX Insiders & 13F AADX Whale Options AADX Profit Sankey AADX News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 42/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AADX — Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T14:12:41Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AADX scores 42 out of 100, a letter grade of D-, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." Across the five pillars: the Fundamental Cash Engine scores 11/20 (ROIC 0%; FCF yield 0%), indicating the business is not currently generating a measurable return on invested capital or free cash flow yield per the source data. Whale 13F Flow scores 6/20, reflecting weak institutional accumulation and options positioning. Insider Conviction scores 9/20 based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Macro Regime Fit scores 5/20 with a beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity noted as a weakness. Forensic Balance Sheet scores 11/20, with an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.93.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the upside drivers are limited to the macro liquidity signal and recent price momentum, which the source data flags as bullish, rather than to the operating fundamentals, which the rating scores low. The valuation tradeoff is significant: with zero reported margins, ROIC, and FCF yield, and no available P/E or EV/EBITDA, the source data does not provide a fundamental anchor for value. The leverage level (Debt/Equity 3.93 against $15.5M cash and $627.0M debt in the SEC financials) is the primary risk to the equity cushion. The rating's conclusion is that the balance sheet and cash flow profile are vulnerable, so near-term price moves should be weighed against that structural weakness.

Business

Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Industrials sector and the Military/Government/Technical industry, per the company profile. The source data does not describe its specific products, customers, or revenue model. Reported FY 2025 revenue is $0.0M, so the source data does not establish how the company generates income. Not available in source data for the remainder of the business description.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025 (filed 2025-12-31)	$0.0M	$0.0M	$0.0M	N/A	N/A	$15.5M	$627.0M

Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 reports zero revenue, operating income, and net income, with EPS and FCF listed as N/A. Per the Roarable RQD rating, gross, operating, and net margins are each 0%, and ROIC is 0%. The Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 3.93 per the forensic balance sheet pillar. Cash of $15.5M against debt of $627.0M indicates a leveraged balance sheet in the source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Recent headlines in the news feed (all tagged YELLOW, MARKET WIRE) include an RBC-referenced note that the outlook is "Supported by Defense Demand and Backlog," a MarketBeat report of a 5.9% price decline, a Benzinga piece on Jim Cramer's comments, a TradingView estimates report, a Yahoo Finance watchlist mention, and a Stock Titan item on an accounting chief receiving 3,800 stock units. The defense-demand and backlog framing is the most fundamentally relevant catalyst in the feed, though the source data does not quantify backlog. The Stock Titan item is a compensation-related filing with no stated directional signal.

The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph carries a LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND signal with severity 94 and direction BULLISH, labeled MACRO TAILWIND SCORE (96/100). It cites a True Net Liquidity Index of $5,745.73B, a 4-week rate of change of -0.64%, High-Yield OAS of +2 bps, and a rolling five-year liquidity beta of 6.00x (r = -0.17). Risk watch items: the source's own correlation (r = -0.17) is weak, the 6.00x beta is sensitive to the liquidity series, and the rating's fundamental pillars remain weak. Recent price action per the market data is +7.65% on the day with volume of 2,123,998.

Open Questions

What are AADX's specific products, government and defense customers, and contract structure, given that the source data reports zero revenue?
Why does FY 2025 show $0.0M revenue and net income despite a $2.04B market capitalization, and what explains the gap?
What is the composition and maturity of the $627.0M debt, and how does it compare to the $15.5M cash position?
What is the reported backlog referenced in the RBC-related headline, and what contracts comprise it?
What drove the 52-week range of $9.4 to $24.24, and what institutional or insider activity accompanied it?

AADX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AADX Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 16h ago

Applied Aerospace Defense And 2 Other EV Stocks To Watch

Yahoo Finance report covering Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 19h ago

Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc. Estimates – NYSE:AADX

TradingView report covering Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 22h ago

Jim Cramer Likes This Tech Stock, Recommends Sticking With Applied Aerospace

Benzinga report covering Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Applied Aerospace & Defense (NYSE:AADX) Stock Price Down 5.9% - Should You Sell?

MarketBeat report covering Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Applied Aerospace & Defense Outlook Supported by Defense Demand and Backlog, RBC Says

Yahoo Finance report covering Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Accounting chief receives 3,800 stock units at Applied Aerospace & Defense (AADX).

Stock Titan report covering Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST kalkine.ca • 1d ago

Why Did Applied Aerospace & Defense (NYSE:AADX) Gain 8.45%?

kalkine.ca report covering Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc. (NYSE:AADX) Stock Has Average Price Target of $24.67

MarketBeat report covering Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AADX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.15?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AADX 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $10.40 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AADX (D- • RQD 42/100) a Buy at $11.82?

Welcome to the AADX (Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 42/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Military/Government/Technical. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.34 (-21.0%)

Spot @ $11.82

Pump the brakes on AADX — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AADX, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.47 (+14.0%)

Spot @ $11.82

AADX cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AADX, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Military/Government/Technical and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $11.82 (52-wk range $9.40 - $24.24), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.