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Stock Ratings / Health Care / TECX
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Tectonic Therapeutic Inc. (TECX) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$18.98 -4.04% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.81

Tectonic Therapeutic Inc. (TECX) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 30/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $386.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TECX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Tectonic Therapeutic Inc. (NASDAQ: TECX) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 30/100 at a spot price of $18.98 (-4.04% 1D, market cap $386.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TECX compare to ZURA and PROK in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), TECX carries a Roarable E (30/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ZURA (Zura Bio Limited (Class A)) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $389.2M) and PROK (ProKidney Corp. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $391.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TECX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TECX leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TECX?
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Per TECX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001681087), Tectonic Therapeutic Inc. generated $235.3M in revenue (+44.9% YoY), -$74.15B in net income, and -$60.3M in free cash flow against $261.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.81 (-0.92%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (30/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510030
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (8)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (6)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.6% Base Target
$42 Bull$17 Base$13 Bear
📬 FREE TECX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TECX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (30/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TECX SCORES 30/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (33% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
38
Grade E$21.31+2.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
35
Grade E$21.83-6.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
33
Grade E$20.34-6.7% Next Q
Current
30
Grade E$18.98-9.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (38) → E (30)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TECX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TECX currently carries a cautious 30/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($25.33) and Max Pain ($19.93) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $41.51.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TECX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TECX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 30%NO 70%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
33.930 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
2 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE14% OF RANGE
L: $16$18.98H: $40
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on TECX

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (40)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -15.04% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (20)

6/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TECX
  • ✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TECX)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TECX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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TECX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -35.99%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-03O $20.50H $20.50L $18.98C $18.98VOL 146.3K
RES: $37.97SUP: $27.64SMA50: $25.33SMA200: $28.09
$40.97$35.01$29.05$23.09$17.13RES $37.97SUP $27.64$18.982026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TECX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TECX Butterfly Map → + Track TECX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +44.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TECX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TECX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TECX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TECX)

Health Care Rank #793 of 1015 ⚔️ ZURA vs TECX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TECX vs. ZURA, PROK, TRXB, AUTL)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tectonic Therapeutic Inc. (TECX) ranks #793 by composite RQD confidence (30/100, grade E) and #478 by equity capitalization ($386.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TECX leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TECX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. TRXB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 48/100 (D) compared with TECX at 30/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TECX ACTIVE
Tectonic Therapeutic Inc.
E 30/100 — — -35.0% -4.04% $386.7M Benchmark Subject
ZURA
Zura Bio Limited (Class A)
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -2.47% $389.2M /zura-vs-tecx →
PROK
ProKidney Corp. (Class A)
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% -13.51% $391.6M /prok-vs-tecx →
TRXB
TRex Bio Inc.
D 48/100 — — — -0.73% $377.1M /trxb-vs-tecx →
AUTL
Autolus Therapeutics plc
E 21/100 — -27.8% -35.0% -6.58% $404.6M /autl-vs-tecx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001681087 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tectonic Therapeutic Inc. (TECX) reported GAAP revenue of $235.3M (+44.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $162.4M , and +88.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$74.15B, operating cash flow of -$60.1M, and free cash flow of -$60.3M (-1.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, TECX closed FY2025 with $261.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $235.3M -$74.15B -$60.1M -$60.3M $261.0M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $162.4M -$57.98B -$59.1M -$59.2M $152.9M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $125.0M -$42.82B -$40.7M -$40.7M — —

3. TECX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TECX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Tectonic Therapeutic Inc. (NASDAQ: TECX) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 30/100 at a spot price of $18.98 (-4.04% 1D, market cap $386.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

How does TECX compare to ZURA and PROK in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), TECX carries a Roarable E (30/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ZURA (Zura Bio Limited (Class A)) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $389.2M) and PROK (ProKidney Corp. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $391.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TECX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TECX leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TECX?

Per TECX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001681087), Tectonic Therapeutic Inc. generated $235.3M in revenue (+44.9% YoY), -$74.15B in net income, and -$60.3M in free cash flow against $261.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TECX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TECX last traded at $18.98 (-4.04% on volume of 183,887 shares), positioning the stock -25.07% below its 50-day simple moving average ($25.33) and -32.43% below its 200-day simple moving average ($28.09). Across its 52-week range of $15.52 to $39.53, TECX sits at the 14.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.5% ($16.99 to $20.97).

Direct Sub-Reports: TECX RQD Cockpit TECX 12M Forecast TECX Earnings & Move TECX Dividends & DRIP TECX Insiders & 13F TECX Whale Options TECX Profit Sankey TECX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 30/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TECX — Tectonic Therapeutic Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Tectonic Therapeutic Inc. (TECX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 30/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $18.98 (-4.04% 1D, market capitalization $386.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -15.04%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Tectonic Therapeutic Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. The company has a market capitalization of $0.4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Tectonic Therapeutic Inc. (TECX) reported $235.3M in annual revenue (up from $162.4M in FY2024, +44.9% YoY) and -$74.15B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($125.0M revenue, -$42.82B net income) through FY2025, TECX scaled operating cash flow to -$60.1M and free cash flow to -$60.3M, backed by $261.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 30/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -15.04% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $15.52 – $39.53 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are — The liquidity signal indicates heightened sensitivity to macro liquidity conditions, meaning a tightening in net liquidity could amplify downside pressure on the stock, per the graph's bearish direction.

  • Key Question #1: Can TECX sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $235.3M and free cash flow of -$60.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TECX's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TECX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Tectonic Therapeutic Inc. (TECX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TECX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TECX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $18.98?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TECX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TECX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $25.71 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Cash on hand rose to $253.8M in FY 2025 while the balance sheet pillar scores 10/20 with an Altman Z of 2.5 and Debt/Equity of 0.5.

Here is why I am bullish on TECX here at $19.78: Cash on hand rose to $253.8M in FY 2025 while the balance sheet pillar scores 10/20 with an Altman Z of 2.5 and Debt/Equity of 0.5.. Compare TECX's 0.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $18.79 are getting bought.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@QuantViper Agree on the RQD 30/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $19.78 and keeping dry powder in case we test $18.40.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $15.82 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $19.78

ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -15.04% show a business that continues to consume capital with zero reported revenue across FY 2023 throu

Careful chasing TECX at $19.78. ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -15.04% show a business that continues to consume capital with zero reported revenue across FY 2023 through FY 2025.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $15.82 on multiple compression.

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