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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / RXO
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RXO Inc. (RXO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$27.82 +1.20% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.83

RXO Inc. (RXO) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $4.53B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RXO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RXO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, RXO Inc. (NYSE: RXO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $27.82 (+1.20% 1D, market cap $4.53B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, RXO ranks #461 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RXO compare to MMYT and BWLP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), RXO carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -2.9%. By comparison, MMYT (MakeMyTrip Limited) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $4.01B) and BWLP (BW LPG Limited) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.98B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GXO leads on earnings multiple (159.1x) while GXO leads on capital efficiency (4.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RXO?
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Per RXO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001929561), RXO Inc. generated $5.74B in revenue (+26.2% YoY), -$100.0M in net income, and -$8.0M in free cash flow against $3.28B in total assets and $766.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.83 (+0.03%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510054
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (9)Whales (17)SEC (14)Macro (7)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.8% Base Target
$32 Bull$27 Base$21 Bear
📬 FREE RXO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RXO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (54/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RXO SCORES 54/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (31% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±3.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.35 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
62
Grade C+$28.69+0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$28.78-4.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
57
Grade C$27.60+0.8% Next Q
Current
54
Grade D+$27.82-0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (62) → D+ (54)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RXO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RXO currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($24.10) and Max Pain ($29.21) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $32.24.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RXO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RXO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 54%NO 46%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
56.130 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.35>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE89% OF RANGE
L: $10$27.82H: $30
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on RXO

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (45)

-2.9% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -0.18% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (70)

Altman-Z 3.35 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (52)

24/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like RXO
  • ✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RXO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of RXO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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RXO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +57.18%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $27.65H $27.82L $27.49C $27.82VOL 3.12M
RES: $29.26SUP: $17.51SMA50: $24.10SMA200: $21.24
$30.92$26.71$22.49$18.28$14.07RES $29.26SUP $17.51$27.822026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RXO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RXO Butterfly Map → + Track RXO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
15.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +26.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RXO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RXO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RXO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RXO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #461 of 1009 ⚔️ MMYT vs RXO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (RXO vs. MMYT, BWLP, GXO, HAFN)

Industry: Transportation Services (22 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, RXO Inc. (RXO) ranks #461 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #285 by equity capitalization ($4.53B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GXO leads on earnings valuation at 159.1x trailing P/E, while GXO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 4.2% ROIC and — gross margin. HAFN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with RXO at 54/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RXO ACTIVE
RXO Inc.
D+ 54/100 — — -2.9% +1.20% $4.53B Benchmark Subject
MMYT
MakeMyTrip Limited
D 45/100 — — — +6.84% $4.01B /mmyt-vs-rxo →
BWLP
BW LPG Limited
D+ 58/100 — — — -6.16% $3.98B /bwlp-vs-rxo →
GXO
GXO Logistics Inc.
D 48/100 159.1x — 4.2% +3.68% $5.77B /gxo-vs-rxo →
HAFN
Hafnia Limited
C 65/100 — — — -6.26% $5.82B /hafn-vs-rxo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001929561 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), RXO Inc. (RXO) reported GAAP revenue of $5.74B (+26.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.55B , and +46.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$100.0M, operating cash flow of $51.0M, and free cash flow of -$8.0M (+86.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, RXO closed FY2025 with $3.28B in total assets against $766.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.35, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $5.74B -$100.0M $51.0M -$8.0M $3.28B $766.8M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.55B -$290.0M -$12.0M -$57.0M $3.41B $798.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.93B $4.0M $89.0M -$87.7M $4.71B $1.10B

3. RXO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RXO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, RXO Inc. (NYSE: RXO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $27.82 (+1.20% 1D, market cap $4.53B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, RXO ranks #461 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RXO compare to MMYT and BWLP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), RXO carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -2.9%. By comparison, MMYT (MakeMyTrip Limited) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $4.01B) and BWLP (BW LPG Limited) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.98B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GXO leads on earnings multiple (159.1x) while GXO leads on capital efficiency (4.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RXO?

Per RXO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001929561), RXO Inc. generated $5.74B in revenue (+26.2% YoY), -$100.0M in net income, and -$8.0M in free cash flow against $3.28B in total assets and $766.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RXO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RXO last traded at $27.82 (+1.20% on volume of 2,016,678 shares), positioning the stock +15.44% above its 50-day simple moving average ($24.10) and +30.98% above its 200-day simple moving average ($21.24). Across its 52-week range of $10.43 to $29.90, RXO sits at the 89.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.8% ($26.76 to $28.88).

Direct Sub-Reports: RXO RQD Cockpit RXO 12M Forecast RXO Earnings & Move RXO Dividends & DRIP RXO Insiders & 13F RXO Whale Options RXO Profit Sankey RXO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 54/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RXO — RXO Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

RXO Inc. (RXO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 54/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $27.82 (+1.20% 1D, market capitalization $4.53B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -2.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -1.4%, and free cash flow yield of -0.18%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.09x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.35, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.43x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

RXO Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Transportation Services industry. The company is described as operating in Transportation Services with a market capitalization of $4.6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), RXO Inc. (RXO) reported $5.74B in annual revenue (up from $4.55B in FY2024, +26.2% YoY) and -$100.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.93B revenue, $4.0M net income) through FY2025, RXO scaled operating cash flow to $51.0M and free cash flow to -$8.0M, backed by $3.28B in total assets against $766.8M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 54/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of -0.18% and institutional whale pillar of 17/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $10.43 – $29.90 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -1.4% operating margins and a 1.09x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are therefore — Sector correlation data is — Based on the news wire, the principal 2nd-order item an investor would track is the status of the proposed C.H.

  • Key Question #1: Can RXO sustain or expand its -1.4% operating margin and -2.9% ROIC against Transportation Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $5.74B and free cash flow of -$8.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $766.8M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RXO's 22.0x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.09x)?

RXO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for RXO Inc. (RXO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RXO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RXO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $27.82?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RXO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RXO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $32.71 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional whale 13F flow scores 18/20 and the Altman Z of 3.35 and Piotroski F of 7/9 indicate a reasonable balance sheet, alongsid

Don't sleep on RXO's setup in Consumer Discretionary. Institutional whale 13F flow scores 18/20 and the Altman Z of 3.35 and Piotroski F of 7/9 indicate a reasonable balance sheet, alongside a pending $5.8 billion C.H. Robinson acquisition.. Beta of 1.09 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (54/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Fair point on 22.0x forward P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Transportation Services. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $22.27 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $27.49

ROIC of -2.9%, FCF yield of -0.18%, and EPS (TTM) of -0.61 show the fundamental cash engine scoring only 9/20, with an RQD verdict of T

I respect the product at RXO Inc., but the stock at $27.49 is a different story. ROIC of -2.9%, FCF yield of -0.18%, and EPS (TTM) of -0.61 show the fundamental cash engine scoring only 9/20, with an RQD verdict of Trim.. FCF yield is -0.18% and RQD sits at 54/100 (D+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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