Should I buy, hold, or sell RRGB stock right now?

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 57/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is RRGB's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

RRGB's 12-month base price target is $9.1 (range $7.1 to $11.5), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / RRGB

RICK (54) JACK (38) BDL (73) PLAY (28) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$9.14 +0.33% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.13

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $172.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RRGB Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RRGB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $9.14 (+0.33% 1D, market cap $172.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, RRGB ranks #402 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RRGB compare to RICK and JACK in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), RRGB carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.7%. By comparison, RICK (RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 20.0x, ROIC 5.6%, cap $216.5M) and JACK (Jack In The Box Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $249.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RICK leads on earnings multiple (20.0x) while BDL leads on capital efficiency (8.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RRGB?

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Per RRGB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0001171759), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. generated $1.21B in revenue (-3.1% YoY), -$23.3M in net income, and $37.0M in free cash flow against $563.5M in total assets and $164.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.13 (-0.13%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 3.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RRGB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY RRGB SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.1% FCF Margin ($37.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 12 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$8.63+2.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$8.86-7.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$8.19+11.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$9.14-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the RRGB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, RRGB faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($8.32) or 200D SMA ($5.89) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.10) toward Bear Floor ($7.10).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RRGB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “RRGB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 27, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

58.130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.65>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE79% OF RANGE

L: $2$9.14H: $11

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on RRGB

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

5.7% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 20.98% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 1.65 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (62)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like RRGB

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RRGB)

✓Walkthrough of RRGB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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RRGB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +155.31%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $9.33H $9.33L $9.11C $9.14VOL 176.3K

RES: $9.42SUP: $7.85SMA50: $8.32SMA200: $5.89

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RRGB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RRGB Butterfly Map → + Track RRGB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -3.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RRGB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RRGB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RRGB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RRGB)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #402 of 1009 ⚔️ RICK vs RRGB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (RRGB vs. RICK, JACK, BDL, PLAY)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) ranks #402 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #704 by equity capitalization ($172.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RICK leads on earnings valuation at 20.0x trailing P/E, while BDL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.2% ROIC and — gross margin. BDL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with RRGB at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
RRGB ACTIVE Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc.	D+	57/100	—	—	5.7%	+0.33%	$172.2M	Benchmark Subject
RICK RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc.	D+	54/100	20.0x	—	5.6%	+2.72%	$216.5M	/rick-vs-rrgb →
JACK Jack In The Box Inc.	D-	38/100	—	—	-35.0%	+6.03%	$249.6M	/jack-vs-rrgb →
BDL Flanigan's Enterprises Inc.	B	73/100	21.4x	—	8.2%	+10.82%	$111.5M	/bdl-vs-rrgb →
PLAY Dave & Buster's Entertainment Inc.	E	28/100	—	85.7%	4.3%	+8.69%	$272.7M	/play-vs-rrgb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-28 • CIK 0001171759 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) reported GAAP revenue of $1.21B (-3.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.25B , and -7.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$23.3M, operating cash flow of $37.0M, and free cash flow of $37.0M (+425.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, RRGB closed FY2025 with $563.5M in total assets against $164.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.65, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-28	$1.21B	-$23.3M	$37.0M	$37.0M	$563.5M	$164.7M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-29	$1.25B	-$77.5M	$7.0M	$7.0M	$641.3M	$181.6M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.30B	-$21.2M	-$1.2M	-$1.2M	—	—

3. RRGB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RRGB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does RRGB compare to RICK and JACK in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RRGB?

Where is RRGB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RRGB last traded at $9.14 (+0.33% on volume of 241,555 shares), positioning the stock +9.86% above its 50-day simple moving average ($8.32) and +55.18% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.89). Across its 52-week range of $2.46 to $10.95, RRGB sits at the 78.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($8.00 to $10.28).

Direct Sub-Reports: RRGB RQD Cockpit RRGB 12M Forecast RRGB Earnings & Move RRGB Dividends & DRIP RRGB Insiders & 13F RRGB Whale Options RRGB Profit Sankey RRGB News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RRGB — Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-28

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $9.14 (+0.33% 1D, market capitalization $172.2M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.7%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 0.2%, and free cash flow yield of 20.98%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.65, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) is listed on NASDAQ and classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Restaurants industry. The profile describes the company as a Consumer Discretionary issuer operating in Restaurants with a market capitalization of $0.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-28), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) reported $1.21B in annual revenue (up from $1.25B in FY2024, -3.1% YoY) and -$23.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.30B revenue, -$21.2M net income) through FY2025, RRGB scaled operating cash flow to $37.0M and free cash flow to $37.0M, backed by $563.5M in total assets against $164.7M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 57/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 20.98% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.46 – $10.95 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh current valuation against 0.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Investors should monitor the scheduled fiscal third quarter 2026 release on November 4, 2026, and the debt refinancing as the nearest sources of second-order change.

Key Question #1: Can RRGB sustain or expand its 0.2% operating margin and 5.7% ROIC against Restaurants peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.21B and free cash flow of $37.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $164.7M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is RRGB's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

RRGB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RRGB Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 21h ago

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Red Robin refinances its debt after major refranchising efforts (RRGB:NASDAQ)

Seeking Alpha report covering Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. to Release Fiscal Third Quarter 2026 Results on November 4, 2026

Yahoo Finance report covering Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ:RRGB) Shares Break Above 200-Day Moving Average - Here's What Happened

MarketBeat report covering Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Two directors resign; Red Robin's board will shrink to six

Stock Titan report covering Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

The Bet Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Holders Made

Simply Wall St report covering Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ:RRGB) Stock Price Breaks Above Two Hundred Day Moving Average - Here's What Happened

MarketBeat report covering Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Kalkine Media • 1d ago

Is the Turnaround Finally Gaining Ground At Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ:RRGB)?

Kalkine Media report covering Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RRGB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.14?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RRGB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $10.93 (+20.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

The RQD scores a 20.98% FCF yield against a $176.4M market cap, and FY 2025 operating income turned positive at $2.8M.

Long RRGB at $9.11 targeting $10.93. The RQD scores a 20.98% FCF yield against a $176.4M market cap, and FY 2025 operating income turned positive at $2.8M.. Institutional whale score is 14/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $2.46 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 57/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $9.11 and keeping dry powder in case we test $8.47.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.92 (-24.0%)

Spot @ $9.11

The RQD gives a Forensic Balance Sheet score of 8/20 with Altman Z of 1.65 and Piotroski F of 4/9, while net income was negative in eve

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short RRGB above $9.11. The RQD gives a Forensic Balance Sheet score of 8/20 with Altman Z of 1.65 and Piotroski F of 4/9, while net income was negative in every reported period.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20) and FCF yield (20.98%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $10.95.