Should I buy, hold, or sell RJF stock right now?

Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (6% return on capital), mixed timing at 15x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is RJF's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

RJF's 12-month base price target is $160.76 (range $125.39 to $191.87), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Financials / RJF

TW (78) NMR (56) IBKR (53) CBOE (82) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$157.22 -2.52% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $156.21

Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $30.24B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RJF Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RJF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Raymond James Financial Inc. (NYSE: RJF) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $157.22 (-2.52% 1D, market cap $30.24B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, RJF ranks #292 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RJF compare to TW and NMR in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), RJF carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.9%. By comparison, TW (Tradeweb Markets Inc.) holds a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 34.2x, ROIC 13.6%, cap $28.45B) and NMR (Nomura Holdings Inc ADR) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $27.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RJF leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while CBOE leads on capital efficiency (26.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RJF?

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Per RJF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0000720005), Raymond James Financial Inc. generated $15.91B in revenue (+6.6% YoY), $2.13B in net income, and $2.25B in free cash flow against $88.76B in total assets and $34.28B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $156.21 (-0.64%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 14.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RJF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY RJF SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (45.2) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$157.25-1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$155.69+1.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$157.42-0.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C$157.22+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (71) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the RJF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, RJF faces multiple-compression risk if 14.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($163.67) or 200D SMA ($159.97) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($160.76) toward Bear Floor ($125.39).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RJF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “RJF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

45.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

8 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE42% OF RANGE

L: $139$157.22H: $183

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 14 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on RJF

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (70)

5.9% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 7.24% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (57)

27/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like RJF

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (RJF Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

RJF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.26%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $161.3H $161.3L $157.2C $157.2VOL 1.58M

RES: $191.9SUP: $150.0SMA50: $163.7SMA200: $160.0

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RJF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RJF Butterfly Map → + Track RJF →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

6.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RJF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RJF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RJF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RJF)

Financials Rank #292 of 1097 ⚔️ TW vs RJF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (RJF vs. TW, NMR, IBKR, CBOE)

Industry: Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service (64 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) ranks #292 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #93 by equity capitalization ($30.24B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RJF leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while CBOE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 26.6% ROIC and — gross margin. CBOE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 82/100 (A-) compared with RJF at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
RJF ACTIVE Raymond James Financial Inc.	C	63/100	14.5x	—	5.9%	-2.52%	$30.24B	Benchmark Subject
TW Tradeweb Markets Inc.	B+	78/100	34.2x	—	13.6%	+3.08%	$28.45B	/tw-vs-rjf →
NMR Nomura Holdings Inc ADR	D+	56/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-0.95%	$27.21B	/nmr-vs-rjf →
IBKR Interactive Brokers Group Inc.	D+	53/100	139.6x	—	0.3%	-5.96%	$34.84B	/ibkr-vs-rjf →
CBOE Cboe Global Markets Inc.	A-	82/100	31.9x	—	26.6%	+6.77%	$37.52B	/cboe-vs-rjf →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0000720005 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) reported GAAP revenue of $15.91B (+6.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $14.92B , and +22.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.13B, operating cash flow of $2.43B, and free cash flow of $2.25B (+15.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, RJF closed FY2025 with $88.76B in total assets against $34.28B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$15.91B	$2.13B	$2.43B	$2.25B	$88.76B	$34.28B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$14.92B	$2.07B	$2.15B	$1.95B	$82.28B	$31.66B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$12.99B	$1.74B	-$3.51B	-$4.10B	$17.06B	$3.99B

3. RJF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RJF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does RJF compare to TW and NMR in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RJF?

Where is RJF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RJF last traded at $157.22 (-2.52% on volume of 1,582,505 shares), positioning the stock -3.94% below its 50-day simple moving average ($163.67) and -1.72% below its 200-day simple moving average ($159.97). Across its 52-week range of $138.82 to $182.73, RJF sits at the 41.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($149.67 to $164.77).

Direct Sub-Reports: RJF RQD Cockpit RJF 12M Forecast RJF Earnings & Move RJF Dividends & DRIP RJF Insiders & 13F RJF Whale Options RJF Profit Sankey RJF News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RJF — Raymond James Financial Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $157.22 (-2.52% 1D, market capitalization $30.24B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 16.4%, and free cash flow yield of 7.24%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 0.94x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Raymond James Financial Inc. Is a NYSE-listed company classified in the Financials sector and the Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service industry..0B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) reported $15.91B in annual revenue (up from $14.92B in FY2024, +6.6% YoY) and $2.13B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($12.99B revenue, $1.74B net income) through FY2025, RJF scaled operating cash flow to $2.43B and free cash flow to $2.25B, backed by $88.76B in total assets against $34.28B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $138.82 – $182.73 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 14.5x trailing P/E and 19.2x EV/EBITDA against 16.4% operating margins and a 0.94x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlation data, and second-order bottlenecks are — The only sector-level context available is the classification as Financials / Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service and the Beta of 0.94 from the Roarable RQD rating, which suggests moderate sensitivity to broad market moves. A prospective investor should treat the absence of linked supply-chain signals as a gap in the dataset rather than evidence of an absence of ripple effects.

Key Question #1: Can RJF sustain or expand its 16.4% operating margin and 5.9% ROIC against Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $15.91B and free cash flow of $2.25B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $34.28B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is RJF's 13.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.94x)?

RJF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RJF Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Raymond James (RJF) Stock May Be 43% Undervalued On Equity Returns

Yahoo Finance report covering Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

What Could Raymond James Financial (RJF) Gain From Hiring Dan Connolly?

Yahoo Finance report covering Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Raymond James Financial, Inc. 2026 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:RJF) 2026-10-30

Seeking Alpha report covering Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE marketscreener.com • 1d ago

Earnings Flash (RJF) Raymond James Financial, Inc. Reports Q4 Revenue $4.27B, vs. FactSet Est of $4.20B

marketscreener.com report covering Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Raymond James Financial (RJF) Is Getting Attention Again, What Is Behind It?

Yahoo Finance report covering Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE marketscreener.com • 1d ago

Earnings Flash (RJF) Raymond James Financial, Inc. Posts Q4 Adjusted EPS $3.59 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $3.26

marketscreener.com report covering Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Raymond James (RJF) Stock May Be 44% Undervalued Despite Record Results

Yahoo Finance report covering Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE marketscreener.com • 1d ago

Earnings Flash (RJF) Raymond James Financial Posts Fiscal Q4 Net Revenue $4.27B, vs. FactSet Est of $4.2B

marketscreener.com report covering Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RJF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $157.22?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RJF 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $190.24 (+21.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 17 of 20 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8 of 9, while Q4 revenue of $4.27B and adjusted EPS of $3.59 both beat

Insider conviction scores 17 of 20 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8 of 9, while Q4 revenue of $4.27B and adjusted EPS of $3.59 both beat FactSet estimates.. When you look under the hood at RJF, Fundamental Cash Engine is 14/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 5.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (10/20) has been quietly accumulating below $182.73. My 12M target is $190.24.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — RJF's 15/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $135.21 (-14.0%)

Spot @ $157.22

Reported debt rose from $3.99B in FY 2023 to $34.28B in FY 2025 and ROIC is only 5.9%, with whale 13F flow scored just 11 of 20.

Careful chasing RJF at $157.22. Reported debt rose from $3.99B in FY 2023 to $34.28B in FY 2025 and ROIC is only 5.9%, with whale 13F flow scored just 11 of 20.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 16.4%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $135.21 on multiple compression.