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Stock Ratings / Industrials / HTLD
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Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$10.22 -1.54% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.17

Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $790.3M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HTLD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Heartland Express Inc. (NASDAQ: HTLD) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $10.22 (-1.54% 1D, market cap $790.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, HTLD ranks #423 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HTLD compare to CVLG and MRTN in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), HTLD carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -5.1%. By comparison, CVLG (Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E 101.0x, ROIC 0.4%, cap $784.7M) and MRTN (Marten Transport Ltd.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 55.1x, ROIC 2.5%, cap $957.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRTN leads on earnings multiple (55.1x) while MRTN leads on capital efficiency (2.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HTLD?
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Per HTLD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000799233), Heartland Express Inc. generated $805.7M in revenue (-23.1% YoY), -$52.5M in net income, and -$66.9M in free cash flow against $1.19B in total assets and $154.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.17 (-0.47%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510028
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (5)Whales (4)SEC (11)Macro (5)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target
$17 Bull$9 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE HTLD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HTLD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HTLD SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (39% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+5/20 pts (18% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
36
Grade E$10.86-5.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$10.27+1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
31
Grade E$10.37-1.4% Next Q
Current
28
Grade E$10.22-10% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (36) → E (28)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HTLD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HTLD currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.42) and Max Pain ($10.73) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.47.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HTLD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HTLD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
37.330 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
4 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE33% OF RANGE
L: $7$10.22H: $17
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 5 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 7 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on HTLD

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (25)

-5.1% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -8.33% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (55)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (20)

7/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 5/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like HTLD
  • ✓Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HTLD)

  • ✓Walkthrough of HTLD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HTLD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.24%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $10.38H $10.38L $10.22C $10.22VOL 626.5K
RES: $10.67SUP: $9.32SMA50: $11.42SMA200: $12.31
$17.15$15.05$12.95$10.86$8.76RES $10.67SUP $9.32$10.222026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HTLD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HTLD Butterfly Map → + Track HTLD →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -23.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HTLD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HTLD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HTLD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HTLD)

Industrials Rank #423 of 486 ⚔️ CVLG vs HTLD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (HTLD vs. CVLG, MRTN, ULH, WERN)

Industry: Trucking Freight/Courier Services (19 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) ranks #423 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #269 by equity capitalization ($790.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MRTN leads on earnings valuation at 55.1x trailing P/E, while MRTN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.5% ROIC and — gross margin. MRTN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with HTLD at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HTLD ACTIVE
Heartland Express Inc.
E 28/100 — — -5.1% -1.54% $790.3M Benchmark Subject
CVLG
Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)
D- 36/100 101.0x — 0.4% +7.29% $784.7M /cvlg-vs-htld →
MRTN
Marten Transport Ltd.
D 47/100 55.1x — 2.5% -0.34% $957.1M /mrtn-vs-htld →
ULH
Universal Logistics Holdings Inc.
D- 43/100 — — -4.2% +29.68% $595.6M /ulh-vs-htld →
WERN
Werner Enterprises Inc.
E 28/100 — — 0.4% +0.29% $1.66B /wern-vs-htld →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000799233 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) reported GAAP revenue of $805.7M (-23.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.05B , and -33.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$52.5M, operating cash flow of $89.3M, and free cash flow of -$66.9M (-292.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, HTLD closed FY2025 with $1.19B in total assets against $154.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $805.7M -$52.5M $89.3M -$66.9M $1.19B $154.1M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.05B -$29.7M $144.3M $34.8M $1.33B $191.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.21B $14.8M $165.3M $165.3M — —

3. HTLD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HTLD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Heartland Express Inc. (NASDAQ: HTLD) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $10.22 (-1.54% 1D, market cap $790.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, HTLD ranks #423 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HTLD compare to CVLG and MRTN in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), HTLD carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -5.1%. By comparison, CVLG (Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E 101.0x, ROIC 0.4%, cap $784.7M) and MRTN (Marten Transport Ltd.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 55.1x, ROIC 2.5%, cap $957.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRTN leads on earnings multiple (55.1x) while MRTN leads on capital efficiency (2.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HTLD?

Per HTLD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000799233), Heartland Express Inc. generated $805.7M in revenue (-23.1% YoY), -$52.5M in net income, and -$66.9M in free cash flow against $1.19B in total assets and $154.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HTLD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HTLD last traded at $10.22 (-1.54% on volume of 626,514 shares), positioning the stock -10.51% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.42) and -16.98% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.31). Across its 52-week range of $7.00 to $16.64, HTLD sits at the 33.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($9.41 to $11.03).

Direct Sub-Reports: HTLD RQD Cockpit HTLD 12M Forecast HTLD Earnings & Move HTLD Dividends & DRIP HTLD Insiders & 13F HTLD Whale Options HTLD Profit Sankey HTLD News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 28/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HTLD — Heartland Express Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 28/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $10.22 (-1.54% 1D, market capitalization $790.3M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -5.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -7.1%, and free cash flow yield of -8.33%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.20x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, operating within Trucking Freight/Courier Services. The market capitalization is $0.8B. — for customer base, service mix, or revenue model details.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) reported $805.7M in annual revenue (up from $1.05B in FY2024, -23.1% YoY) and -$52.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.21B revenue, $14.8M net income) through FY2025, HTLD scaled operating cash flow to $89.3M and free cash flow to -$66.9M, backed by $1.19B in total assets against $154.1M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 28/100): Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -8.33% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $7.00 – $16.64 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -7.1% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or proprietary signal links are recorded. — for supplier, customer, or sector-correlation mapping. Per the news feed, one headline frames profitability as dependent on equipment sales rather than freight hauling, which would be a second-order item to monitor, but the source does not quantify this relationship.

  • Key Question #1: Can HTLD sustain or expand its -7.1% operating margin and -5.1% ROIC against Trucking Freight/Courier Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $805.7M and free cash flow of -$66.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $154.1M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HTLD's equity valuation to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HTLD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HTLD Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HTLD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $10.22?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HTLD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HTLD:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $11.86 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance sheet pillar scores 11/20 with Debt/Equity of 0.2, the strongest component of the RQD rating.

Picked up a starter position in HTLD in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $10.22. Balance sheet pillar scores 11/20 with Debt/Equity of 0.2, the strongest component of the RQD rating.. Trading inside a $7.00–$16.64 52-week range with -8.33% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Trucking Freight/Courier Services multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — HTLD's 11/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.79 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $10.22

FY 2025 free cash flow was -$66.9M on $805.7M revenue, with ROIC at -5.1% and an RQD score of 28.

Fading this rally in HTLD at $10.22. FY 2025 free cash flow was -$66.9M on $805.7M revenue, with ROIC at -5.1% and an RQD score of 28.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $10.22 (52-wk range $7.00–$16.64), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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