Should I buy, hold, or sell CVR stock right now?

Chicago Rivet & Machine Co. (CVR) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 37/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is CVR's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

CVR's 12-month base price target is $9.33 (range $7.28 to $15.75), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Industrials / CVR

EPOW (20) TURB (49) FLUX (26) DETX (46) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Chicago Rivet & Machine Co. (CVR) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$10.30 -8.85% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.12

Chicago Rivet & Machine Co. (CVR) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $10.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CVR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CVR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Chicago Rivet & Machine Co. (NYSE: CVR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $10.30 (-8.85% 1D, market cap $10.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, CVR ranks #362 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CVR compare to EPOW and TURB in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), CVR carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 14.8%, and ROIC of -5.5%. By comparison, EPOW (E-Power Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $10.5M) and TURB (Turbo Energy S.A.) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $10.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CVR leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CVR leads on capital efficiency (-5.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CVR?

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Per CVR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000019871), Chicago Rivet & Machine Co. generated $27.9M in revenue (+3.3% YoY), -$1.1M in net income, and -$1.2M in free cash flow against $23.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.12 (-1.78%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CVR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CVR SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (30% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.22 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$11.50-13% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$10.00-2.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$9.76+5.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$10.30-8.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (45) → D- (37)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CVR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CVR currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.47) and Max Pain ($10.82) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.75.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CVR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CVR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 37%NO 63%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

57.530 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

4.22>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

2 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE28% OF RANGE

L: $9$10.30H: $15

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 5 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 14 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on CVR

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (25)

-5.5% ROIC with 14.8% gross margin and -11.66% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.22 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (37)

14/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like CVR

✓Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CVR)

✓Walkthrough of CVR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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CVR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.21%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $10.90H $11.30L $10.30C $10.30VOL 1.9K

RES: $12.33SUP: $9.58SMA50: $10.47SMA200: $11.15

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CVR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CVR Butterfly Map → + Track CVR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CVR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CVR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CVR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CVR)

Industrials Rank #362 of 486 ⚔️ EPOW vs CVR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (CVR vs. EPOW, TURB, FLUX, DETX)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chicago Rivet & Machine Co. (CVR) ranks #362 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #449 by equity capitalization ($10.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CVR leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while CVR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -5.5% ROIC and 14.8% gross margin. TURB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 49/100 (D) compared with CVR at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CVR ACTIVE Chicago Rivet & Machine Co.	D-	37/100	—	14.8%	-5.5%	-8.85%	$10.9M	Benchmark Subject
EPOW E-Power Inc. (Class A)	E	20/100	—	-12.6%	-35.0%	-8.87%	$10.5M	/epow-vs-cvr →
TURB Turbo Energy S.A.	D	49/100	—	—	—	-4.60%	$10.2M	/turb-vs-cvr →
FLUX Flux Power Holdings Inc.	E	26/100	—	32.7%	-35.0%	+5.58%	$9.3M	/flux-vs-cvr →
DETX Liberty Defense Holdings Ltd.	D	46/100	—	—	—	-2.95%	$8.7M	/detx-vs-cvr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000019871 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chicago Rivet & Machine Co. (CVR) reported GAAP revenue of $27.9M (+3.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $27.0M , and -11.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$1.1M, operating cash flow of -$1.2M, and free cash flow of -$1.2M (-52.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, CVR closed FY2025 with $23.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.22, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$27.9M	-$1.1M	-$1.2M	-$1.2M	$23.3M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$27.0M	-$5.6M	-$153.5K	-$804.8K	$23.4M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$31.5M	-$4.4M	-$1.9M	-$1.9M	—	—

3. CVR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CVR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does CVR compare to EPOW and TURB in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CVR?

Where is CVR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CVR last traded at $10.30 (-8.85% on volume of 374 shares), positioning the stock -1.62% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.47) and -7.62% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.15). Across its 52-week range of $8.50 to $15.00, CVR sits at the 27.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.5% ($9.32 to $11.28).

Direct Sub-Reports: CVR RQD Cockpit CVR 12M Forecast CVR Earnings & Move CVR Dividends & DRIP CVR Insiders & 13F CVR Whale Options CVR Profit Sankey CVR News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 37/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CVR — Chicago Rivet & Machine Co.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Chicago Rivet & Machine Co. (CVR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 37/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $10.30 (-8.85% 1D, market capitalization $10.9M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -5.5%, gross margin of 14.8%, operating margin of -4.3%, and free cash flow yield of -11.66%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.22, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Chicago Rivet & Machine Co. (CVR) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, Industrial Machinery/Components industry..0B. Per the market data, gross margin is 14.8%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Chicago Rivet & Machine Co. (CVR) reported $27.9M in annual revenue (up from $27.0M in FY2024, +3.3% YoY) and -$1.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($31.5M revenue, -$4.4M net income) through FY2025, CVR scaled operating cash flow to -$1.2M and free cash flow to -$1.2M, backed by $23.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 37/100): Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -11.66% and institutional whale pillar of 11/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $8.50 – $15.00 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -4.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or 2nd-order bottlenecks are recorded. A prospective investor should note that the absence of mapped links means this analysis cannot assess ripple effects from Industrials peers.

Key Question #1: Can CVR sustain or expand its -4.3% operating margin and -5.5% ROIC against Industrial Machinery/Components peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $27.9M and free cash flow of -$1.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is CVR's equity valuation to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CVR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Chicago Rivet & Machine Co. (CVR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CVR Debate Forum (3) ↓

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Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Chicago Rivet & Machine Co. (CVR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟢 CATALYST https://www.dars.gov.et/ • 1d ago

CVR Q2 2026 Earnings: Loss of $1.02 Per Share With No Consensus Estimate to Benchmark Against - Revenue Recognition Risk

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Invesco E&P ETF Has Relatively High Non-E&P Positioning

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CVR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $10.30?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CVR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.67 (+21.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Altman Z of 4.22 and a 1.1% dividend yield offer a comparatively sturdy balance-sheet and income profile against negative operating ret

Altman Z of 4.22 and a 1.1% dividend yield offer a comparatively sturdy balance-sheet and income profile against negative operating returns.. When you look under the hood at CVR, Fundamental Cash Engine is 5/20 with 14.8% gross margins and -5.5% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (11/20) has been quietly accumulating below $15.00. My 12M target is $13.67.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 37/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $11.30 and keeping dry powder in case we test $10.51.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.59 (-24.0%)

Spot @ $11.30

Negative ROIC of -5.5%, FCF yield of -11.66%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 signal weak cash generation and fundamental quality.

Negative ROIC of -5.5%, FCF yield of -11.66%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 signal weak cash generation and fundamental quality.. Look at the math on CVR: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -5.5% ROIC and -4.3% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Industrial Machinery/Components demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $9.94 before getting long.