Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (BRLT) β€” RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$1.50 -4.46% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.49

Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (BRLT) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $159.9M
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BRLT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: BRLT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $1.50 (-4.46% 1D, market cap $159.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BRLT ranks #516 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BRLT compare to ELA and FOSL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Consumer Specialties), BRLT carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 57.5%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ELA (Envela Corporation) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 20.7%, cap $290.8M) and FOSL (Fossil Group Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $392.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ELA leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while ELA leads on capital efficiency (20.7% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BRLT?
β–Ό

Per BRLT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001866757), Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) generated $437.5M in revenue (+3.6% YoY), -$3.6M in net income, and $5.8M in free cash flow against $200.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.49 (-0.99%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) β€’ 1.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 50.1% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510052
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D Β· Rk D+
Cash (9)Whales (12)SEC (10)Macro (13)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target
$3 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE BRLT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BRLT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY BRLT SCORES 52/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime Γ— Technicals: 26% of 52W Range β€’ RSI-14 at 61.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±12.5% realized swing band)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$1.46+4.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
47
Grade D$1.52-0.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
49
Grade D$1.51-0.7% Next Q
Current
52
Grade D+$1.50-1.1% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (44) β†’ D+ (52)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BRLT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While BRLT currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.43) and Max Pain ($1.58) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.04.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BRLTβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œBRLT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
61.130 Oversold Β· 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.20>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
6 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE26% OF RANGE
L: $1$1.50H: $3
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on BRLT

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (45)

-35.0% ROIC with 57.5% gross margin and 3.55% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 3.20 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (55)

20/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like BRLT
  • βœ“Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BRLT)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of BRLT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BRLT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.35%β–² ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $1.59H $1.59L $1.50C $1.50VOL 58.7K
RES: $1.73SUP: $1.10SMA50: $1.43SMA200: $1.34
$1.91$1.66$1.42$1.17$0.92RES $1.73SUP $1.10$1.502026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BRLT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BRLT today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BRLT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BRLT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BRLT)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #516 of 1011 βš”οΈ ELA vs BRLT Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BRLT vs. ELA, FOSL, MOV, VSTS)

Industry: Consumer Specialties (11 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (BRLT) ranks #516 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #717 by equity capitalization ($159.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ELA leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while ELA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.7% ROIC and 22.4% gross margin. MOV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with BRLT at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BRLT ACTIVE
Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A)
D+ 52/100 β€” 57.5% -35.0% -4.46% $159.9M Benchmark Subject
ELA
Envela Corporation
D+ 55/100 20.2x 22.4% 20.7% +0.45% $290.8M /ela-vs-brlt β†’
FOSL
Fossil Group Inc.
D- 36/100 β€” 56.1% -7.2% +2.56% $392.7M /fosl-vs-brlt β†’
MOV
Movado Group Inc.
C 63/100 26.6x 54.2% 8.5% +2.08% $696.4M /mov-vs-brlt β†’
VSTS
Vestis Corporation
D+ 53/100 β€” β€” 2.6% -1.01% $1.96B /vsts-vs-brlt β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001866757

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (BRLT) reported GAAP revenue of $437.5M (+3.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $422.2M , and -2.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$3.6M, operating cash flow of $9.7M, and free cash flow of $5.8M (-54.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, BRLT closed FY2025 with $200.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.20, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $437.5M -$3.6M $9.7M $5.8M $200.9M $0
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $422.2M $541.0K $17.6M $12.7M $281.2M $50.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $446.4M $584.0K $26.2M $26.2M β€” β€”

3. BRLT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BRLT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: BRLT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $1.50 (-4.46% 1D, market cap $159.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BRLT ranks #516 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BRLT compare to ELA and FOSL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Consumer Specialties), BRLT carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 57.5%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ELA (Envela Corporation) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 20.7%, cap $290.8M) and FOSL (Fossil Group Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $392.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ELA leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while ELA leads on capital efficiency (20.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BRLT?

Per BRLT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001866757), Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) generated $437.5M in revenue (+3.6% YoY), -$3.6M in net income, and $5.8M in free cash flow against $200.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BRLT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BRLT last traded at $1.50 (-4.46% on volume of 62,900 shares), positioning the stock +4.90% above its 50-day simple moving average ($1.43) and +11.94% above its 200-day simple moving average ($1.34). Across its 52-week range of $1.00 to $2.90, BRLT sits at the 26.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±12.5% ($1.31 to $1.69).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 52/100 (D+) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

BRLT β€” Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:42:22Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

BRLT scores 52 out of 100, a letter grade of D+ and a verdict label of "Roarable Sell β€” Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 9 / 20. this pillar reflects ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of 3.55%. For a prospective investor, the negative ROIC signals that the business is not currently generating returns on invested capital, and the FCF yield is the main positive offset in this pillar.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 12 / 20. this pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning.
  • Insider Conviction: 8 / 20. this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 13 / 20. this pillar reflects a beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 implies the stock is expected to move in line with the broader market, offering no defensive dampening.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 10 / 20. this pillar reflects an Altman Z-Score of 3.2, a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5. These figures point to a balance sheet that is more stable than the profitability picture.

Taken together, the rating suggests a prospective investor faces weak current profitability and returns, partially offset by a reasonable balance sheet and a positive FCF yield. Upside drivers would need to come from a turnaround in operating economics. The valuation tradeoff is that the P/E and EV/EBITDA metrics are unavailable, so the stock cannot be assessed on earnings multiples from this source data. The rating's "Trim" verdict reflects the weight of the negative ROIC and near-breakeven margins against the market-level beta.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (BRLT) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Consumer Specialties industry. Reported revenue appears in the SEC financials below. β€”

FY 2025 shows an operating loss and a net loss after two years of positive operating and net income, while revenue held in the $422–446M range across all three periods. Per the Market Data section, gross margin is 57.5%, operating margin is -1.2%, and net margin is -0.8%, with ROIC at -35%. The Altman Z-Score is 3.2 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9. Per the same rating, Debt/Equity is 0.5, and the SEC financials show debt falling from $50.0M in FY 2024 to β€” in FY 2025, with cash declining from $161.9M to $79.1M over the same period.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case: Revenue held above $420M in each reported year while the balance sheet moved to zero debt and the FCF yield stands at 3.55%. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 (ROIC -35.0%, FCF yield 3.55%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $1.00 – $2.90 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: ROIC of -35% and an FY 2025 operating loss of -$5.4M show the business is not currently earning returns on its capital. Investors must weigh current valuation against -1.2% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the source data. Sector correlations are limited to the Consumer Discretionary classification and the beta of 1.0. The Signet item in the news feed is the only cross-company reference, and its relevance to BRLT is not established by the source. A prospective investor should treat second-order ripples as unmapped.

  • Key Question #1: What is the revenue and product mix behind the FY 2025 swing to operating and net losses, and is it cyclical or structural?
  • Key Question #2: What explains the drop in cash from $161.9M to $79.1M alongside the repayment of $50.0M in debt?
  • Key Question #3: Does the Signet move have any operational or competitive connection to BRLT?

BRLT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A) (BRLT) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to BRLT Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BRLT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $1.50?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BRLT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BRLT:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro Price Action & Volume Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.85 (+17.8%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Revenue held above $420M in each reported year while the balance sheet moved to zero debt and the FCF yield stands at 3.55%.

Here is why I am bullish on BRLT here at $1.57: Revenue held above $420M in each reported year while the balance sheet moved to zero debt and the FCF yield stands at 3.55%.. Compare BRLT's -1.2% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Consumer Specialties. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $1.49 are getting bought.

RetailWhale_TX πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” BRLT's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.35 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $1.57

ROIC of -35% and an FY 2025 operating loss of -$5.4M show the business is not currently earning returns on its capital.

I respect the product at Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A), but the stock at $1.57 is a different story. ROIC of -35% and an FY 2025 operating loss of -$5.4M show the business is not currently earning returns on its capital.. FCF yield is 3.55% and RQD sits at 52/100 (D+) β€” why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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