Should I buy, hold, or sell AMTM stock right now?

Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 55/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 82x P/E (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is AMTM's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AMTM's 12-month base price target is $22.17 (range $17.29 to $40.02), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / AMTM

XMTR (50) MBGL (50) RELY (70) WEX (56) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$22.47 +2.74% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.54

Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $5.35B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AMTM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AMTM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Amentum Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AMTM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $22.47 (+2.74% 1D, market cap $5.35B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AMTM ranks #435 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AMTM compare to XMTR and MBGL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), AMTM carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 81.8x, gross margin of 10.5%, and ROIC of 4.6%. By comparison, XMTR (Xometry Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.8%, cap $5.37B) and MBGL (Mobility Global Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 1.4%, cap $5.58B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WEX leads on earnings multiple (20.6x) while WEX leads on capital efficiency (13.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMTM?

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Per AMTM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-10-03, CIK 0002011286), Amentum Holdings Inc. generated $14.39B in revenue (+71.6% YoY), $66.0M in net income, and $516.0M in free cash flow against $11.20B in total assets and $3.89B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.54 (+0.30%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 3.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMTM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AMTM SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.96 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.6% FCF Margin ($516.0M FCF) & 10.5% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (64.5) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$18.13+11.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$20.15+7.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$21.69+3.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$22.47-0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AMTM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, AMTM faces multiple-compression risk if 81.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 82x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($19.89) or 200D SMA ($24.29) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($22.17) toward Bear Floor ($17.29).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMTM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AMTM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 1, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

64.530 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)

1.96>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

8 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE23% OF RANGE

L: $18$22.47H: $38

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (10.5% gross margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on AMTM

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

4.6% ROIC with 10.5% gross margin and 9.56% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (70)

Altman-Z 1.96 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (48)

22/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AMTM

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Priced at 82x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AMTM)

✓Walkthrough of AMTM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AMTM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.77%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $22.07H $22.47L $21.87C $22.47VOL 3.04M

RES: $25.78SUP: $16.74SMA50: $19.89SMA200: $24.29

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AMTM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AMTM Butterfly Map → + Track AMTM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +71.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMTM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMTM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMTM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMTM)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #435 of 1009 ⚔️ XMTR vs AMTM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (AMTM vs. XMTR, MBGL, RELY, WEX)

Industry: Business Services (88 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) ranks #435 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #255 by equity capitalization ($5.35B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WEX leads on earnings valuation at 20.6x trailing P/E, while WEX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.6% ROIC and 40.4% gross margin. RELY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with AMTM at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AMTM ACTIVE Amentum Holdings Inc.	D+	55/100	81.8x	10.5%	4.6%	+2.74%	$5.35B	Benchmark Subject
XMTR Xometry Inc.	D	50/100	—	39.1%	-7.8%	+1.97%	$5.37B	/xmtr-vs-amtm →
MBGL Mobility Global Inc.	D	50/100	32.8x	—	1.4%	+3.65%	$5.58B	/mbgl-vs-amtm →
RELY Remitly Global Inc.	B-	70/100	76.8x	—	12.7%	+4.91%	$5.11B	/rely-vs-amtm →
WEX WEX Inc.	D+	56/100	20.6x	40.4%	13.6%	+0.14%	$6.07B	/wex-vs-amtm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-10-03 • CIK 0002011286 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-10-03), Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) reported GAAP revenue of $14.39B (+71.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.39B , and +83.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $66.0M, operating cash flow of $543.0M, and free cash flow of $516.0M (+1333.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMTM closed FY2025 with $11.20B in total assets against $3.89B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.96, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-10-03	$14.39B	$66.0M	$543.0M	$516.0M	$11.20B	$3.89B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-27	$8.39B	-$82.0M	$47.0M	$36.0M	$11.92B	$4.64B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-29	$7.87B	-$314.0M	$67.0M	-$286.9M	$9.44B	$2.21B

3. AMTM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AMTM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AMTM compare to XMTR and MBGL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMTM?

Where is AMTM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AMTM last traded at $22.47 (+2.74% on volume of 2,792,916 shares), positioning the stock +12.97% above its 50-day simple moving average ($19.89) and -7.49% below its 200-day simple moving average ($24.29). Across its 52-week range of $17.72 to $38.11, AMTM sits at the 23.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.9% ($20.92 to $24.02).

Direct Sub-Reports: AMTM RQD Cockpit AMTM 12M Forecast AMTM Earnings & Move AMTM Dividends & DRIP AMTM Insiders & 13F AMTM Whale Options AMTM Profit Sankey AMTM News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 55/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AMTM — Amentum Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-10-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 55/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $22.47 (+2.74% 1D, market capitalization $5.35B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.6%, gross margin of 10.5%, operating margin of 3.3%, and free cash flow yield of 9.56%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.11x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.96, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.85x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Amentum Holdings Inc. Is listed on the NYSE and is classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Business Services industry..4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-10-03), Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) reported $14.39B in annual revenue (up from $8.39B in FY2024, +71.6% YoY) and $66.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($7.87B revenue, -$314.0M net income) through FY2025, AMTM scaled operating cash flow to $543.0M and free cash flow to $516.0M, backed by $11.20B in total assets against $3.89B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 55/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 9.56% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $17.72 – $38.11 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 81.8x trailing P/E and 18.0x EV/EBITDA against 3.3% operating margins and a 1.11x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Business Services (Consumer Discretionary), AMTM carries a macro regime beta of 1.11 and gross margin of 10.5%.

Key Question #1: Can AMTM sustain or expand its 3.3% operating margin and 4.6% ROIC against Business Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $14.39B and free cash flow of $516.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $3.89B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is AMTM's 68.7x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.11x)?

AMTM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 21h ago

Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Amentum: Margin Quality Over Revenue Quantity

Seeking Alpha report covering Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Why Amentum (AMTM) Stock Is Up Today

Yahoo Finance report covering Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Amentum Holdings (NYSE:AMTM) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall St report covering Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE www.debelegger.nl • 1d ago

Amentum Holdings (AMTM) Stock Price, Chart & Analysis

www.debelegger.nl report covering Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Student support for two Tennessee colleges exceeds $1 million.

Stock Titan report covering Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Amentum (AMTM) Stock Looks About Right Despite New Nuclear Hub

Yahoo Finance report covering Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

A new site puts Amentum near Cheyenne Mountain and two Space Force bases.

Stock Titan report covering Amentum Holdings Inc. (AMTM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AMTM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $22.47?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AMTM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $28.65 (+31.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, the 9.56% FCF yield and an FY 2025 FCF of $516.0M signal strong cash generation relative to the $5.4B market cap.

Don't sleep on AMTM's setup in Consumer Discretionary. Per the RQD rating, the 9.56% FCF yield and an FY 2025 FCF of $516.0M signal strong cash generation relative to the $5.4B market cap.. Beta of 1.11 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (55/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Fair point on 81.8x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Business Services. If gross margin (10.5%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $17.06 (-22.0%)

Spot @ $21.87

Per the market data, a trailing P/E of 81.8 against EPS of 0.27 and a ROIC of 4.6% leaves little margin for error on the valuation.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on AMTM: Per the market data, a trailing P/E of 81.8 against EPS of 0.27 and a ROIC of 4.6% leaves little margin for error on the valuation.. At 81.8x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Business Services triggers a 12-15% air pocket.